GSP

Think GFS was trying to bring it’s mild default in too early.

As in any information the BBC is pumping out, it’s always best to seek an alternative view as you just can’t trust it. Just look at the models and how they can differ. It’s been fascinating model watching for the past couple of weeks now with so many ebbs, flows and emotions. The uncertainty can be gripping at times. To stay sane however, you just have to accept the disappointments when they come. Just how will GFS treat that low in a week’s time? Here’s to a good 6z, but it won’t be finished there.

Are we back on, or was we never off?

Only a week away, what could go wrong! Seriously be interesting how this ends up. You can be sure though the pictures painted today won’t be the same come the day. Didn’t know I was a poet!

As some have said enjoy this upcoming wintry seasonal spell because it’s quite rare nowadays, being December as well. And take in the comfort on GFS at least we have to look at time frame 270 before any proposed breakdown occurs. What are the odds that 270 is correct because it’s so far out? Nothing is off the table. Again enjoy the cold weather, for those who enjoy it! 270 onwards will probably look quite different in the following runs.

Quite agree. While there are plenty of mentions of blocking, there is also a fair amount of mobility in the systems. Little features can have quite a major impact shifting wind directions and turning things on their head. Things seem to be going one way, then back another while the models sort themselves out. I wouldn’t rule anything off the table, but would say the unreliable period REALLY is unreliable and would discount because of the small but important changes short term.

While there is a lot of blocking forecast, there also seems to be a lot of mobility where it matters. Little changes can add to a lot further down the line. With milder air forecast to be flirting with the south from time to time, we should hope for the best, but expect the worst because we know how it goes sometimes. Here’s for a good, more definitive 6z.

Cold aside, I am drawn to the 2 low pressures. One to the East causing quite an wind with the tight gradient. And also the system just off the Portuguese coast which looks quite a feature. Come the day these both will probably change, may even disappear altogether but the fact there are quite stormy areas suggested throws another layer of interest to see how these pan out in the coming days.

Looking more complicated now, and it really makes you wonder if it’s going to work out like this. Certainly charts and airflows we are not used to seeing.

This slack low which has settled over us originates and has migrated from Scandi. There must be some pretty cold air wrapped up in and in the instability anything could happen of a wintry nature.

Seriously good charts from GFS on the 12z, with colder air upwind and a cleaner flow right across the country on the whole with low pressure being pushed further south.

Just great seeing the charts pop out at the mo. Low pressure seems to be getting pushed further south too.

That far out!

Aarrghh, don’t fill our heads there is enough going on, just kidding! Very interesting viewing for a number of days now, and we’ll see if we go from a fairly quiet but seasonal nothing to something more noteworthy, either way!

Well at the least it should feel seasonal.

Are we going to end up in the middle of a battlefield. Mild, cold, or copious snow let’s see how this run pans out.

The important bit is it’s good up to day 9. From day 10 more likely to change being further out.

Still looks a little messy, and not the player either!

GFS having it’s customary breather mid flow!

Well it’s certainly a different watch than we are used to so early on in the season. The interest is still there for sure, and for now at least it’s compelling viewing watching how this pans out from run to run. All eyes now for the 15.30, then 21.30, and again 09.30 in the morning. I do like this time of year!

Agree, even now we are seeing small but important changes run to run with airflows from the east, south and north. What could go wrong! While it sort of gets there in the end, there’s still plenty to play for until it does.

It feels like we are not there yet in terms of knowing what will happen next week and beyond with small but important changes occurring. Slack with foggy conditions then small attacks from the east then north, with a southerly component not too far away also. Interesting runs with a bit of everything. Just how will this pan out!

Very slack winds forecasted next week, which could mean a lot of dense fog and some icy patches. Still, it’s seasonal weather!

On occasions though, such chopping and changing by the models can be a good sign as they work out solutions. As usual, it’s everything crossed as we go on through the journey from run to run.

I much prefer easterlies down here, but I’d take bolt from the north if it delivers something. In truth, it’s so far out and not really worth anything as the next run can produce a completely different scenario and ending.