GSP

Well the models are certainly playing with emotions at the moment, and can see more of that coming. Everything is still too far out however, but something’s up what with all the changes going on. As we stay indoors more this time of year, love it when there is so much interest and here’s to a decent 6z.

Great seeing the posts and optimism, but caution as we have been here too many times before. It really is just potential at the moment so far out, but that shouldn’t stop the excitement, interest and watching how this one pans out, either way. That’s what it’s all about and looking forward to the next runs, and what they suggest.

This is starting to feel like a winter of old. Southerly tracking lows into November, and as we go into December wintry showers start tucking in behind depressions in the more northerly airflow as they move out into the North Sea. Quite enjoying these runs at the moment.

So far out, but a nice one to leave us with as to what may happen from here.

That’s a strong anti cyclone forecasted out to the North East. Still a long way out however, but the blocking is a consistent theme now on GFS and those southerly tracking lows certainly do their stuff to try to set things up. Interesting model watching.

GFS is keeping with a theme of the potential of something building from the north east, though there’s still some way to go on it yet. Really is just something to watch from run to run for now, but things could change favourably quite quickly as we go on.

Seeing a chart like this reminded me of a forecast by I believe Jack Scott in the seventies when he said there is High Pressure over Scandinavia, and it’ll probably stay there until April influencing our weather from time to time.

A long way out in fantasy land, but the charts are getting consistent of more southerly running lows and cold building to the north.

Hurricane Ian intense winds and blue sky in eye wall - Pine Island.

15 foot storm surge washes away homes in Fort Myers. Hat’s off to whoever fitted the webcam and wonder what height it was. Also, notice the wind appears to change direction so quickly as the storm shifts.

Thought I heard this morning high tide was at 6pm in a number of areas. Is this all happening at low tide? If it is, imagine if the major winds are still around when the high tide comes in.

Cat 3. That’s a lot of very warm water to tap into once it reaches the sea again and do wonder if this could end up a high 4. The ‘experts’ seem to be ruling out a 5, but is it possible. Good to see the words he and she being mentioned with no hint of gender neutrality. Storms must be immune, for now!

Waiting in anticipation here. There’s the main line coming in from the west. Activity moving up from the south. At some point these two are going to come together. Quite what will happen?

Rainfall radar suggesting the rain is moving a little more east with some heavier pulses developing over Kent. Could be some areas that were expected to get appreciable rain are receiving rain (like here currently) or will be receiving in the not too distant.

At last some rain, albeit 2 mins worth and it got so dark the solar lights have come on in the garden. Could be it for now though!

So close, but It all appears to be going to the west of us from here. Would you Adam and Eve it! The storm would have been a bonus, but missing all this needed rain!

Would you consider this ‘disinformation’ from them then, as they employ people with job titles such as “Climate Disinformation Reporters”?

It’s refreshing to see such a number of balanced posts, and the BBC themselves should take note of a bigger picture rather than providing and provoking headlines and ‘pieces’ similar to the Express. “BBC Climate Disinformation Reporters”! Really! Sorry, there are nearly two sides of the coin here BBC and your bias ‘shines through’ once again. Trusted source? No way, not any more! That’s why people ARE seeking other sources of information now.

Too true! They need an eye keeping on as despite what they say I don’t trust them. In fact all their carefully edited clips and pics, bias, influencing, agenda’s etc, they only serve now to try and divide and disrupt this country. And now they have a piece constructed by a couple of their reporters with their job titles “Climate Disinformation Reporters”! I’d like to know what other job titles they have in different areas and bet they would raise more than eyebrow.

Interesting views on where this is positioned here. This is just one account of someone ‘being turned’ to believe. Are there any accounts recorded for believers becoming deniers, and don’t anyone say there haven’t been any. In the very first instance the piece has been written by two reporters with apparent job titles would you believe “BBC Climate Disinformation Reporters”. So to me the end result will be biased, even though it tries to understand and bring in views on why people deny to try and some balance. But reading again I found that ‘balance’ condescending. Deniers views were apparently being listened to, but in the end a we are right and you are wrong attitude is apparent. It’s like there is some sympathy, an age thing used where people are set in their ways because of era’s they were brought up in. The science to me so far is incomplete. While some mechanics are understood, there is still a lot to discover and understand in our atmosphere and it’s relationship with earth itself. Don’t get me wrong I am all for cleaner air and doing away with fossil fuels. It’s just the abruptness in delivery and the fact there are so many people out there who do deny, for whatever reason our impact, that’s just being trodden on. Sometimes with being older experience can be very useful when actually going through certain times, rather than reading about them in a book or the internet. And my experience says we don’t fully understand everything yet, though we suddenly think we can control the temperature of the earth by taking away this or that. Seems like we are reducing pollution in recent times, but the earth appears to warming at a faster rate. Is that supposed to happen? Warning bells are ringing for me.

So you’d think then as we think we can control the temperature, it’s actually going up faster with less pollution? Is this supposed to happen? Do we we really understand all the variables and state of play in a very complex environment to be making such claims?

Interesting Snowbear as tests conducted by scientists in America concluded aircraft contrails were in fact keeping the earth cooler, by up to 2c in built up areas. See my thread just below this called “As We Clean The Air, It Becomes Hotter?”.

An article, before it is taken off, on how you should talk to climate change denier’s, and ‘tips’ with how to engage with them. Climate change: How to talk to a denier WWW.BBC.CO.UK Tips about how to engage with people who think climate change is a "hoax".

Not sure how accurate the 50% is, but that’s my take on the direction of travel. As we clean the air we are warming at a faster rate. Is this supposed to happen?

I maybe wrong but seem to remember the record breaker in August 2003 ended with no rain, but a large fall in the temperature which was heralded by a strong wind. The temp fall was nothing like 20c though, so wonder what may crop up with the wide temp differential.