Saint coolio

From France meteo… some of the stats on heatwaves are astounding: // Épisode caniculaire devenant intense entre dimanche et mardi prochain | Météo-France METEOFRANCE.COM La France subit un épisode caniculaire qui deviendra intense entre dimanche et mardi prochain. Les températures baisseront progressivement par l’ouest à partir de... France is experiencing a hot episode that will become intense between Sunday and Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually drop from the west from Tuesday, Wednesday. This episode should last between 7 and 10 days. Initially, only the south of France is affected by temperatures above 35 °C. Between Thursday and Friday on the northern half, temperatures will return below 30 °C. They will rise again throughout France from Saturday. Onwards. The highest temperature axis will extend from the Pyrenees to the Pays de la Loire between Sunday and Monday, with night temperatures that will not fall below 20 to 25 °C and daytime temperatures that can exceed 40 °C in many places, and locally 42 °C. A powerful high-pressure axis, located between Morocco, France and the British Isles, favours a gradual warming of the air mass at the beginning of the week, due to a compression effect. At the same time, an altitude depression, currently located in southwestern Portugal, will play a role in intensifying the heat wave starting next Sunday. With the southern currents induced at the front, it will promote the gradual rise to the country of very hot air from Morocco and Spain. Very high temperatures are expected! Stay informed by consulting the Weather Vigilance map and behaviour tips. The Ministry of Health has activated the toll-free number Heatwave info service (0800 06 66 66) to answer questions and give practical advice. It will be in service until the end of the episode. What to expect? Today, Wednesday, the minimum temperatures this morning in the departments on yellow or orange alert were between 15 and 20 °C: they were slightly lower than expected near the Garonne, between 15 and 17 °C. This afternoon, temperatures reached 35 to 38 °C in the southwest and lower Rhône valley as well as from the Centre-Val de Loire to the Paris region. Elsewhere, 30 °C has been exceeded almost everywhere. On Thursday it will be temperatures to be between 18 and 21 °C in the heat wave of the departments. In the afternoon, if we observe a relative drop in temperatures from the north with less than 35 °C north of the Loire, very high maximum temperatures are maintained in the south, often up from the day before. They are above 35 °C south of the Loire to the Rhone Valley and reach 38 to 40 °C in the southwest and lower Rhône valley. Friday will be on average the hottest day of this episode from a national point of view, but with temperatures always exceeding 35 °C south of the 45th parallel and possible peaks up to 40 °C. Starting Saturday, temperatures are rising again throughout the country. Monday will be a particularly hot day with temperatures between 38 and 40 °C in the south, up to the Centre-Val de Loire and the middle Rhone Valley. We could occasionally exceed 40 °C on Sunday and Monday, especially in the southwest. From Tuesday, a refreshment is expected to take place on the Atlantic coast. It will advance eastward on Wednesday, pushing the highest temperatures further east. An intense and lasting scorching episode The 45th heat wave recorded in France since 1947 officially began on Tuesday, July 12. It will be particularly intense and sustainable, especially in the southern regions (Southwest and Lower Rhône Valley). Monthly temperature records will be approached or even exceeded during the peak of the episode on Monday, July 18 in the Southwest, Centre-West and Lower Rhône Valley. This day could also be one of the hottest ever recorded in France (record of the national thermal indicator of 29.4 °C for the days of July 25, 2019 and August 5, 2003). The regions affected by the highest temperatures (Southwest, Centre-West) will also be the same as during the heat wave last June. The southwest regions could experience a long series of maximum temperatures above 35 °C (7 to 10 days), in places equivalent to that observed in August 2003. Analogues with other historical heat waves at the national level: Duration of the episode: between the heat waves of 2019 (6 days) and August 2003 (15 days); Maximum intensity of the episode: approximately the same level as July 2019 and August 2003; Severity of the episode (cumulative intensity over time): equivalent to that of 2018, less than that of 2003; Regions concerned by the maximum temperatures of the episode: the same as for the June 2022 heat wave. Historic heat waves in July There have been 44 heat waves throughout France since 1947. The last officially recorded heat wave took place in June 2022. The heat waves recorded nationally since 1947 have been significantly more numerous in recent decades. Over the last 35 years, they have been 3 times more numerous than in the previous 35 years. The number of heat waves days has been multiplied by 9. Of the 44 heat waves recorded by Météo-France since 1947, 25 began in July. The heat wave of July 2019, exceptional in its intensity equivalent to the heat wave of August 2003, particularly concerned the northern half of the country where absolute temperature records had been broken. Mercury had exceeded 40 °C often for the first time since measurements began, sometimes reaching 43 °C locally at 25. The heat waves of July 1983, July 2016 or July 2018 had been remarkable for their duration (more than 15 days, up to 23 days in 1983). The heat wave of 1947 (23 July-4 August) was the most intense of the 20th century and was marked by temperatures above 40 °C over much of the country. July 2019: a historic heat wave The heat wave of July 2019, from July 21 to 26, 2019, is the last heat wave recorded for a month of July in France. It was relatively short (6 days) but was distinguished by exceptional intensity. With an average temperature of 29.4 °C over the country, July 25 was the hottest day recorded in France, tied for August 5, 2003. Similarly, with an average of 21.4 °C, the night of 24 to 25 was the warmest observed in France since measurements began, ahead of August 14, 2003 with an average of 21.3 °C. Absolute records for all months have been broken for both minimum and maximums, particularly in the northern half of the country and more locally in the southwest. In northern France, mercury has often exceeded 40 °C for the first time since measurements began, or even locally 43 °C on 25.

This reminds me of those articles about covid conspiracy theorists who ended up dead

“Quat”?

nice if you can arrange for it to do a bit of minor damage to signalling round the station area - just enough to get my out of a 5:30 start - that’d be great

Was about to post that it’s fizzling here in the test valley then got a strike a mile away… have a bit of elevation here, and for a while views of three storm systems including the beast

Just lost fence too. abc, I’m brassic too

I don’t disbelieve the forecasts, but it’s incredible that at 23:59 it’s dead calm and in less than 7 hours we’re looking at 70mph gusts in south central

Can she adjust her journey to avoid the very worst of it?

Awesome, thanks.

what's the relationship between wind speed and damage? is it cubic or something? so 80mph vs. 60mph is a vast difference?

This school of yours sucks, Beka… massively over-reaching on their policies on covid, but quite happy for the kids to go out in a hurricane. If this storm is anything like forecast, my kids are staying in the house.

I once got the “last train out of Scotland” ahead of a major storm (early 2000s) when all the flights were cancelled. Funnily enough it was dead empty and I ended up in the 1st class dining car sharing some curry and beer with Charlie Brooker as we trundled south at about 15mph. I’m still waiting for my writing credit for Black Mirror as I swear he nicked some ideas

Just had to pay over 70p/l for quick delivery of central heating oil. Inflation of nearly 100%. You can stick yer cold weather imho.

Been amazing down here today. My mum’s 80th birthday - out celebrating in the garden this afternoon like it was mid summer

*if* the Gulf Stream had partially shut down, what would a typical North Atlantic pressure chart look like in autumn?

Just wasted five minutes looking for the baby photo on this thread before I realised. our lounge has triple aspect and gets very cold, trips the heating too early. Just bought a £70 micathermic heater and it’s brilliant at taking the edge of the room really quickly

Had a stunning evening drinking estrella under the stars. Easily over 20C, humid, strong breeze. Could have been june in greece.

I’m not sure about the longer term outlook, but this BBC feature suggests the flooding rains will affect Tokyo also over the next few days Heavy rains lash Japan - BBC Weather WWW.BBC.CO.UK Hundreds of residents in southwest areas have been asked to evacuate to avoid floods and the risk of landslides caused by the unprecedented rains.

Bit damp in nagasaki a bit surprising that the evacuation of several hundred thousand people isn’t newsworthy here Japan asks hundreds of thousands to evacuate amid torrential Kyushu rains WWW.REUTERS.COM Hundreds of thousands of residents of Nagasaki and other parts of Kyushu island in southwest Japan have been asked to evacuate to avoid floods and the risk of...

Bunch of lightning in the middle of it too if the netweather radar is to be believed

This went up in the last 10 minutes after a lovely sunny couple of hours.

My daughter does swim training at the new pool at bar end. I’m always there.

Just arrived in Winchester from Romsey, in downpour and pretty sure I saw a funnel cloud. Can’t see anything obvious on radar. Was about 17:50 to south east when I driving near Braishfield

Got a direct hit from that in test valley - I don’t mind admitting it was actually a bit scary momentarily. Epic hail for 10-15 minute, probably a dozen lightning strikes in very close proximity. Neighbour says he says some rotation but I don’t think so