shunthebartlett92

A bit disappointing that ECM isn’t showing any progress with that trough properly digging it’s heels in; but MO and GEM still keep us in the game. Weirdly feeling cautiously optimistic tomorrow morning may be better…

This is the sad reality for BC'ers and Albertans, is that large swathes of the provinces are now affected every year by ravaging forest fire smoke. Vancouver is quite often under dense smoke for at least a week or two and sometimes even the island, there really is very little reprieve in a given summer. The yukon has also started having issues too, although their more moderate summer temperatures give them a little more immunity. That's the advantage of being in the UK, and also reduced 'quake' risk too, but you can't compare the beauty of western canada and the UK, there's only one clear winner as far as i'm concerned (and its not the UK!)

true, but at least UKMO is showing colder air filtering back into the south of the UK, so whilst its not perfect, its showing huge potential, and GFS 12z is much better than 6z for bringing that cold air in earlier. Also, JMA on board, its progress from this morning!

Much better from UKMO, this is absolutely exhausting though. I'm just gonna get this out the way now, with my snow prayer: Dear Lord, who art in heaven, give us snow this christmastide. We've been tortured over the last few days with wild swings in model output. For once in our lives, in the middle of this measly time we find ourselves in, give us all some of the good stuff on this Christmas Weekend. Preferably Christmas Day, but boxing day will do as long as it accumulates, even for a few hours. Amen.

What a stunning place to be in the snow Roger, hard not to be a smidge jealous of the cold winter BC is getting. My old city of Vancouver (was there for 2 years, still have a lot of friends living there) are looking nailed on for a white christmas with a very cold spell inbound just in time for the big day. Meanwhile, we've gone completely the other day towards an absolutely rubbish day weatherwise. Very very jealous How long have you been in the kootenays? Absolutely superb place. BC and the Yukon certainly have my heart, although i can't for the life of me see how i could get a job in meteorology over in Canada, im starting a role in northern scotland next month.

Not strong memories of this (was only 8 at the time) but I do remember some significant snowfall around that time and sledging with my cousins just down the road, wouldn’t surprise me if it was this spell around Xmas! Birmingham was quite badly hit. My word these clips look dated, and is that Nicholas witchell doing the news there? Must be old haha

Weirdly feel more at ease knowing that it’s almost certainly a lost cause, rather than fretting over the location of the band and timings that’s the one positive to come out of this!

Exactly my thoughts, just be nice to be excited about something decent (socks in the Christmas stocking just don’t quite cut it)

Last winter really was nirvana for the West Midlands, we were spoilt rotten. This is certainly the hangover party! Ah well, January and February to come still

The forecaster is Dan Holley, I went to uni with him once upon a time! Sadly in the model output we’ve come on leaps and bounds since that was showing yesterday and now it looks like we’ll have a wet Christmas Day after all!

Its incredibly punishing I’ve gotta say. I missed the November snowfall when I was away in Ireland, and What’s worse is my other half has gone back home to Slovakia now, had two significant snowfalls in the past few days and by the time I get there (28th December) the Spanish plume could well be affecting most of western and Central Europe as well as us, meaning that it’s 8C when im there I want to see snow this winter

Excuse me for a minute… ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHH That’s better.

Hmmm the ensembles and 18Z massively backing away from a midlands snow event now over the weekend i have to say, i just sense this low may clip the south coast and maybe a few parts inland. Not a good way of finishing the day BUT, still 72 hours to go and a lot can change!

Without being a pessimist, i honestly wouldnt be surprised. This Xmas day band has had more ups and downs than the Alton Towers Smiler. Every 6-12 hours we get renewed hope but i just sense maybe things are trending less favourable for significant snow now on the big weekend. Wouldnt be surprised to see the precipitation looking increasingly weaker heading towards saturday unfortunately.

I think this is the key, although the uppers aren't perhaps stupidly inspiring this is massive progress on the 00z output, there's no doubt about that, wouldnt take much for that to fall as snow.

Come on, this is absolutely not true, Much better progress in the 12z output with the cold air flooding southwards, albeit takes longer to turn to snow than the UKMO and GFS

Ohhhhh boy haha, just 96 hours until this could come to pass not much of a wait

I've never been so inclined to use this as a calm source of updates for the weekend as opposed as the carnage in the MOD thread! Was reminiscing over some of our best snowfalls in the region (Feb 2007), and i know we're nearly 15 years further down the line with modelling technology, but did crack me up how that event looked like an absolute no hoper and in the end we got 2 significant snowfalls over a few days! Maybe i was a bit brash earlier, still plenty up for grabs.

I remember having some decent snowfall in the midlands during this winter, possibly in december time whilst at sixth form, and getting sent home early. Circa December 08 but i'm sure someone can verify this? We had a good 10cm snowfall one of the days anyway. But yes, i do remember it was better than some of the winters that had preceded it, although February 07 from a midlands pov will always live long in my memory, one of the best snowfalls ive seen in this region.

Is Rob Mcelwee licking his lips?

Correct Sir! This was taken coming over the long mynd towards Stiperstones. Gods country that, one of my fav spots in the UK let alone west midlands

This provided a very nice break from the norm the other day, was very foggy for most of my drive and then clear blue skies afterwards, but any ideas where this might be west midlanders?

I have to be honest, after some initial excitement from the UKMO and GFS 00z'ers i think im starting to realise the chances of a white christmas/boxing day are trickling away now. Stokies you are in a better position as it stands, but i think its just too marginal for down here. Still 4 days away but what seemed quite promising at first now looks like a wintry mix perhaps for the best positioned places and rain for others. The one year it wouldve been extra special to see some falling snow on Christmas day, bah humbug!

What time is ECM out guys?

I mean, that was written just before the new output this morning, I could see a better update this afternoon if things stay as they are! Let’s see what Marco and Matt say, and see if Met4Cast feels a bit more optimistic this morning