shunthebartlett92

Absolutely; I wouldn’t overly worry on the uppers at that stage yet, the key is a decent upgrade from both UKMO and GFS for what should be falling as snow late Xmas day onwards (as it stands), although without being IMBY biased a bit more of a southwards correction can get more of us in the game for convective reasons. here’s hoping for an excellent agreement from ECM now and let the ramping begin! Still a long way to go but you can’t help but feel encouraged by this

Whilst I’m not sleeping it’s good to see the early stuff coming in, nice to see that low a bit further south but I’ll have to check the 850 temps. Cautiously Boxing Day could be fun, but still light years away in snow terms.

Do feel its 'all to play for' still, but you can see a strong trend developing in the models perhaps by wednesday afternoon/thursday morning on how christmas day will play out. I do fear there's too much milder air in the mix, markedly milder air at that, this will just tip things out of favour away from elevated areas of the north of the UK, but i could be wrong.

Art attack starter kit? My word i havent felt so much tension since erm late december last year! Here's hoping for some southwards adjustment on the 12Zs!

It’s the oh so predictable let down we all fear now looking ever more likely sadly. Although sometimes this things give us a last minute shock in terms of the position of the low? Not over yet, although I think it’ll be pretty meh; cold and dry before the Atlantic tries to emerge yet again

Let’s see the hangover in the morning although this southwards modelling, building a lovely trough into the continent is great for longevity I’ll be in Slovakia for new year if I’m allowed, so hoping that trough can hang around on the continent pretty please!

True, and youd feel the default would be for that low to move southwards as we edge nearer, although as Matt says, get the cold in and disturbances can pop up at short notice!

Uninspiring temperatures mind, lets hope that's a little skewiff too!

I guess it depends on how robust that scandi block is really, any NE movement of that atlantic low and we're back to a bleurgh mobile pattern i wouldve thought? Nonetheless, very tasty charts which have put us all in the game again! But i'll pray for a weaker jet, shows how finely balanced it all is mind!

i hope the azores high stays close to the west african coast, that would be the dream Some very odd charts being branded here though, just very obscure wave patterns emerging in FI with shallow troughs and weak highs branded all over the shop, quite messy really.

Don't tease me with such an amazing prospect. About time we relived 2010 (think we had lying snow on christmas day, the only year i can remember it in my 29 on this planet?)

Are we all stirring in our homes looking at these outputs midlanders? It's certainly more 'interesting' as we move towards christmas although the intensity of the atlantic will really dictate our next phase after this anticyclonic spell! Looking pretty interesting as it stands but im not going to overanalyse things, perhaps even take a step back until sunday or so when we'll have more of an idea how things look. But a southerly tracking jet and established high over Iceland would be mouthwatering.

Quite possibly. I’m not going to challenge you on this as I lived in Vancouver in 2017-18 so would be dangerous to contradict you I just remember it being a fairly non descript decade for memorable cold spells, but like any given decade there’ll always be exceptions to the rule.

The ooof in the middle makes it for me

Thats true! Although 2011 to 2019 didnt bring a great deal of joy bar the odd few days with a bit of snowfall. I'm reasonably confident there's been one or two winters here without a single flake falling.

It depends what youre comparing it to though. Youre also in a more elevated area than here giving you a slight advantage. I'm talking about almost directly west of birmingham city centre which Stourbridge is. On a southern UK level we have a chance with any wind direction (bar SW'lies) depending on the upper air temps. Easterlies can reach here without too much of a battle but you need a good level of convection and some minor troughs to keep the precipitation pepped up, but we've had some great snow days from easterlies that said. Hmmm im not convinced on the sliders being direct hits, theyre notorious for getting corrected to the south closer to the events. They do sometimes strike the jackpot though.

It's not frustration, we do ok here (Although we never have the highest falls west of birmingham, there's always somewhere that will get more) we had several decent days of lying snow last winter which was absolutely brilliant. I went hiking during the snow days last winter up to the sheep walks and shropshire hills and it was superb. I think we fared better than Birmingham itself (less heat island effect though) but not the levels to the north of birmingham up towards stoke. Northwesterlies will always be my preference here as the battleground events either tend to sink too far south (M4 corridor of doom) or be too sleety around here as dewpoints are too high. But that said, last winter was superb for this area, one of the best i can remember save December 2010!

Of course, it's still early december, a lot of winter yet to play for, all im saying is it may take a couple of weeks to see a monumental shift in pressure patterns in the north atlantic and continent from where we are, as its about as raging positive NAO as it can be. No way SWesterlies will produce any decent snow cover away from the highest ground in the west mids. A W/NW may well do but not SW wind, far too much tropical air mixed in. Glad to hear a few snow reports coming in for those fortunate enough to live in the peaks! Very much icy rain here and dark/windy. Was hoping to get out on my bike later but i'll be waiting a while.

Roll on something anticyclonic! This is absolutely naff Wingman Blue, i know what youre saying with regards expecting surprises, but in this train of zonality from the atlantic very little will stick im afraid. We need a change in pattern and some reprieve in the strong jet we're currently getting at the moment. Those charts are pretty ugly if you like snow, with a train of low pressures over iceland and a solid block to our south that will take some shifting

I can't trust a lot with regards marginal snow events at the moment, except that within 72 hours of the event itself on the whole expect downgrades. There could be a few surprises if its very marginal but on the whole expect snow reserved for 250m plus. The model output seems so volatile, but the only consistent thing that remains in a strong jet and a mobile pattern for the foreseeable. Rubbish winter weather in my opinion but it is what it is.

Far from boring eh, even if we're in a predominantly positive NAO state. Give me potential knife edge snow events over a dominant azores high and 12C!

Huge improvement but as has been said before, shows the massive uncertainty with modelling the path of an atlantic bullseye low like this one, but it's superb seeing it potentially pipping the azores high to making landfall across western europe ha! My issue is the amount of energy present in the atlantic jet at the moment. The PV is so fired up its going to make any cold spell transient at best (For the time being), but it doesnt stop potentially exciting marginal snow events with the right track

Good lord, stop this teasing at once!

Same here now, could stay up and watch but meh, it'll be a memory by morning im sure!

Diddly squat here currently. A marvel what a little elevation can do (Reports in walsall and frankley but surfaces just look damp here at the moment)