Bobd29

My 26.7 Gloucestershire, posted Friday 10.04 if allowed.

26.7 Gloucestershire

A very warm 13.8 and 43mm for me please

JUstin case anyone began to get excited by the misdemeanours in the MAD thread I now have flower buds on my fruit trees so any thoughts of frost can s*d off until late autumn please. Seriously, late frosts are not good for growers! Let the sun shine.

8.7 and 93mm please

Be an interesting start to the Cheltenham Festival if that comes off. Looks cold, very windy and a lot of showers which could be wintry.

Thanks Jay, I think! Looks as bad as it can get, certainly a day for thermals!

Cheltenham Festival next week. Great day out but if it’s cold, wet and windy the pleasure fades as the day progresses! Anyone any thoughts on next Tuesday/Wednesday? Dry or at least mainly dry would be good.

6.5C and 78mm for me please

More % points against I’m afraid.....let’s play a game of count the snowflakes. Love to see prolonged heavy fall, but to me more likely sleety rain mix at best. Hopefully when the downwelling actually lands the snow gods will start to smile upon us.

4.1 and 45mm please

I admit to being an enthusiastic novice but I am puzzled by the range of emotions on here. Some clearly have an agenda and skew the model output to fit...clearly unhelpful. In my simplistic view until much nearer the time of trop response, say at least 10 days, then the actual pressure set up will not be known within probably a few hundred miles or more so obviously as the models react to data their output will vary considerably. This was observed I believe in the few weeks preceding the March 2018 BFTE. So I really cannot see the point of writing off the effects of the SSW for the UK based on data models that will. Inevitably change. When the trop block between the vortices occurs it’s effect on the NH will be felt and influence our little island considerable, it could well be that our resident hp system at the time will be forced to migrate...so why all the pessimistic views based on current output? just my pennies worth, with my limited understanding of the science involved. The experts on here are not throwing in the towel and that’s good enough for me.

2.8 and 35mm please

4.2C and 55mm please

Oh come on it’s nearly Christmas....what’s not to like? Love this time of year, Nov-Dec is brilliant! All the lights, music, shoppers, exited kids plus the prospect of snow...fantastic!

5.8C and 46mm please

Brave, reasoned and fairly specific....well done Roger and thanks, April review will be interesting.

10C and 110mm for me please.

I have no doubts at all that we are experiencing GW but I also believe the planet has been even warmer in the past and still the NH had very cold winters. Just look at our tiny segment last March and that in spring! Much of Eastern Europe in recent years and the USA has experienced severe winter cold that has lasted for weeks. Japan has recorded record snowfall. So there is ample evidence to show that even recent times have not precluded cold winters in the NH despite GW, just the Placing has eluded our tiny patch except last spring. if without the effects of very low sunspot activity, and possibly entering a Grand Minimum, there have been severe NH winters then surely having these conditions will increase the likelihood of a prolonged severe winter in our backyard despite the existence of GW which I fully recognise. Be it this year or next I am confident that I will see a very snowy winter again.

Always appreciated Fred, whatever the outcome you are brave enough to put your often contrary views out there. Look forward to your thoughts, good luck.

Cloudy in Trowbridge yesterday, cloudy today! Frustrating when the sun line is only 20-30 miles away.

Agree Jeff and if you combine this with Steve Murr’s new thread then the coming winter may get very interesting. Beginning to feel a little optimistic.

Missed this recently from my favourite denier: Joe Bastardi anyone paying attention to big drops in Indian Ocean and Atlantic Temps FROM LAST YEAR never mind super nino year. . Any idea of the implications of that kind of drop with the MJO or other major drivers, You'll find out this winter with modoki enso and MJO in colder phases Add that little snippet to the facts of solar minima and there is ample enthusiasm for the winter ahead imo.

14.9 and 87mm please

Hi NK my reference was to the effect of GW on macro climatic conditions which in themselves may mitigate the effects of solar minimum expectations at ground level. I accept GW will not directly affect solar minima having an effect.