Bobd29

Cannot complain at the number of frosts since November, a very marked improvement on the last few years. Just over a third of winter left so is anybody brave enough to forecast a widespread snowy event for the SW before the clock ticks into Spring? My bet would be unlikely, but with so many surprises could you rule it out?

Who knows? My guesstimate however will be a fence sitting 4.2, thanks

Stunning white crispy winters day, low -2.9 and really bright frost. No breeze and clear blue sky....perfect winters morning, just want some snow in the forecast now

Perish the thought Nick, cannot go down that road again this winter

I have also just moved WILTSHIRE into area B

West / NW flow seldom delivers down here but with unstable air troughs can gather strength quickly and really deliver the goods, as with most of these however the timing is usually nowcasting......fingers crossed this time

Applaud you for this Tamara. I am yet far from convinced that we have the technical ability to understand the absolute chaotic nature of our weather and the global ramifications for our little Isle, but the knowledge and dedication of yourself and others to pursue these links in an effort to close the gab must be recognised. This is a forum for enthusiasts of all beliefs, and it should not be used for personal attacks on those with contrary views. Keep posting, one day you may win me over, but I do not doubt your integrity....just for now I'm not convinced by the argument.

Oh yes please: January 1963, December 2010 and January 1987.....or if you like any other month with snow in it, that rules out the last 4 years down here

A most unMurrlike winter, even straws to clutch are ignored. Come on Steve ditch reality and join us in Layla land, lol.

Pretty easy to guesstimate this new year: Jan - April : autumnal May - June : cool wet springlike July - August : briefly summarise before early autumn onset Sept - December : autumnal. think that's about right = 81/2 months autumnal dirge, standard fare.....BUT HOW I WOULD LOVE TO BE WRONG!!!

Hi....please amend my guesstimate to 4.4, not quite so pessimistic thanks

Sorry to say this but winter is a misnomer again this season...Iwill go for 6.7 please

Nothing like the forecast....it started grotty, stayed grotty and drizzle prevailed on and off all day, how anyone can enjoy this weather is beyond me. Whatever happened to the freeze....it now only resides in the worlds of Madden and the Express, dream on, at least there is Christmas to look forward to, yeah

Simple answer...gullible people buy more papers with sensational headlines, never let the truth get in the way of a story!

I remain optimistic of that most magical of events.....a white Christmas! ''Tis just the calm before the storm (snowstorm that is) we are enduring. Come the 15th-20th December a great change will set in and true Russian cold will visit Britain for its winter holiday, and it will stay until we are tired of sleighing, of building snowmen. That great snow maker the channel low will become a frequent visitor as will the Baltic trough as it wanders westward....we will feast this winter in the best traditions of SACRA.

Fred to be fair you are one of the few to consistently go against HLB in December. Good luck to your forecast, Santa will delighted if your back third of December bears fruit, thanks.

Could not agree more, when it's also cool/cold in December there is no other month like it.....come on Santa let's see the white stuff

I rather like Knock's somewhat quirky prosaic way of saying things......just my view of course

I do think the last two posts from Fergie and Singularity are an excellent summary of short term difficulties facing the models as they try to find their way to a realistic outcome ahead. I have not seen such vagaries in the global atmosphere before and it is not surprising that the models cannot get any long term consistency in their forecasts, but as winter progresses and the pattern stabilises I expect the models to settle more.....from Fergies comments looks like we need another couple of weeks, then we shall see. Meantime enjoy the swings and chill, model watching is nothing if not interesting this year!

Huge thanks for the enormous workload, anyone trying a forecast in this most unusual of seasons with parameters all over the place deserves a bravery award! Good luck with your hard work...

Truly the voice of reason, quite ridiculous the last few utterings

Roger please drop my guess down a tad to 4.0, thanks bobd29 SACRA 16/112

SACRA thriving and with GP's latest positive comment on the MOD thread there is everything to play for for a white Christmas this year...should be a nice present for your new grandchild snowqueen

Love the photos....a foretaste of this Christmas I believe. Quite happy to endure the tortures of phantom beasterlies for the next week or two....then the serious stuff can begin. SACRA 16/112

Always wanted to be a SACRA member since I joined so please allocate me a number. I will ramp with the best and look for the tiniest hint of snow in the farthest reaches of ens to lift the shield that has blighted the southwest for the last 3-4 years!