Bobd29

The famed Trowbridge rain shield is holding firm, would certainly welcome a couple of torrential t-storms today, fingers crossed

Hi, please change my guess to 15.4

14.7 please

Hi 12.2 for me please

9.8 please,very pleasant

Not overly optimistic of an early warm up this year. Too much average dross so I,ll punt for 21 st April at Heathrow

I have punted below average for so long and yet to get close, so this time I will go for 7.2....probably ensure the freezer opens now!

A lot of credit to Steve, the final result may have been Mother Nature 1 Steve Murr 0, but I can't wait for the repeat fixture next winter, cheers Steve

It has suddenly gone very very dark...is Trowbridge about to break its 2 year snow duck? Yes the flakes are falling, so good to see after so long....role on next week!

Looks like it so if the first doesn't get you......With both lows in the airstream it shows how unstable it is and surely there will be imbedded troughs to follow, interesting time early next week

A quite chilly 2.1 for me please

Why not? We want snow in winter and settled warm weather in summer so let us have both dedicated threads

The MAD thread is starting to ramp big time,but in this instance there may be some substance to the dreams with general model agreement. The thing I like about northeries that last for several days in an unstable airmass is the possibilities of troughs developing almost anywhere which can really deliver even down to the southwest....let's dream

What a change a few days can make, talk about a proposed turnaround".....any comments?

Very true but if anything of the pressure level of that monster verified then it could go wherever it wants, and a couple of hundred miles more north would indeed mean game on....unlikely maybe but interesting nonetheless

...apart that is from the METO who have been pretty spot on with their forecast, especially the +AO reflecting everything else when initially this was against the trend of most forecasts pre-winter

A little sleet in Trowbridge but at least that gave some interest, shows how our expectations have lowered this last 2 years

I certainly would not bet against it, with solar minima, the earth's elliptical orbit moving further from the sun, volcanic eruptions, slight changes to the Gulf Stream etc. any or all could combine with the natural ability of the UK to attract a brutal winter every few decades. So IMHO you would be foolish to discount this happening once in the next 30 years.......but can we please have a moderated version in the next year or two

I find it amusing that 'bad news' is taken as gospel but when the models show what we want there is anxiety. Ian has stated the current likelihood but the event is days away and nobody would bet the house on the exact positioning of an lp within 100 miles at that range. I do believe that the odds are still firmly 50/50 as to whether south of the M4 joins in the snowiest or not, give it at least another 48 hours to see whether we can interest France in accommodating some of our lp......glass half full

But 1947 was a really late starter

I have seen many forecast tracks of similar systems make fools of the best over the years when T0 occurs so I, ever the optimist, am saying west/central areas will do very well with the low slowing as it heads south and the cold air behind working its wonderland magic, 10cms for me please sir...

Cork, Cardiff, Norwich all no....all others yes

3.0 please

Fantastic amount of work, well reasoned and explained so that novices such as I can understand...many thanks Steve, May you be very close to the mark

Good luck with that, well thought out and reasoned, hope you are correct with the colder spells forecast. Seems from this and others that the mid-endDecember period is pivotal for entrenched cold during the New Year or shortly after, if it goes awry then these winter forecasts will fall.....but let us be optimistic for the moment