lottiekent
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Posts posted by lottiekent
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Anyone central southern south coast are at the centre of the low at the moment so as you know, that means winds are calm for the moment.
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1 minute ago, Thunders said:
Why can’t I have a day off of school lol. Y9 is so boring aswell
We get it, you don’t want to go. Most of us don’t want to go to work either if that helps.
Pressure down to 978 on my station, steadily dropping away
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15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Big gust started after 10 why I want to see next update.
Yes, had a couple of noisy gusts since the rain arrived!
The highest winds aren’t supposed to arrive until the early hours of the morning, so why people are already saying it’s all over/a bust etc I don’t know.-
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Just now, Mitch the motorbike storm said:
I checked charts there saying 75
if it's shifts north I'm doomed
I think you’ll be ok and fair better than us on the south coast
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4 minutes ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:
What winds am I due in Manston kent
bit worrying as I'm at an open field where we get very powerful gusts from the two miles of just field
Looks like they’re thinking 50 - 59mph gusts for you
Manston (Kent) weather
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
Manston 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV -
An interesting post from an amateur French forecaster on Twitter, who mentions there could be a sting jet forming:
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That’s the issue I suppose, they just don’t know still. Issue it too early and nothing happens everyone is annoyed. Issue it too late or not at all but the winds hit they’ll get even more stick
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Reckon they’ll issue a red warning?
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Met Office has increased our max gusts again to 73mph now.
Anyone think they’ll issue a red warning anywhere?
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21 minutes ago, sunnijim said:
Hi lottie.
Hard to know really how it will all pan out?
We are in the high risk areas,but with models all over the show with the exact track,the three options on the table seem equally as likely.
1, a run of the mill Gale.
2. Gusts to 60mph to 70mph ( a yearly event here)
3 or something that is the windiest for a couple of decades.
( the 87 option is not on the table imo.)
Hey SJ - I’m still on the fence about how bad it’ll be. As we know, and as you say, a 60 to 70mph isn’t unusual for us here so that wouldn’t cause too many issues.
Cant remember what sort of speeds we experienced last year during Eunice but they ripped the roofs off the garages across from our house and snapped a few smaller trees.
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44 minutes ago, sunnijim said:
Local Water companies and power supllier have sent individual emails telling is to boil a kettle and put it in a flask
Candles and torches should be located.
A first, never had these emails before
Same. We’ve sorted the garden and candles out yesterday just in case.
My son’s school is still open for now. Not happy for him to walk in as usual tomorrow as he goes through an area with lots of trees. So it’ll either be mum taxi or say stay at home if I don’t think it’s safe
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2 hours ago, Vortex3929 said:
It is the storm of 87 that got me interested in weather and my true love for the extremes weather can bring. Fascinating.
I won't bore you with my "overnight" stories but 4 year old me seeing the madness and destruction the following morning and being WOW - Weather did this?
Honestly.. If i could experience those same feelings from that night and the following morning again, I would. I truly felt "alive". However, 40 year old me now a days is much more aware of others and as much as I would like another 87, the effect it would have on others does outweigh that desire. Plus my mental health and self loathing doesn't need a new reason to pick up. "This is what I wanted, and look what has happened.. damage, injuries and (God forbid!!) deaths.. this is my fault..." etc etc. But yeh, so moving on
Whether we see any new corrections in the models and track, whatever may or may not happen with Ciaran, stay safe people. Especially those on the coasts.. alexis etc. Y'all shall be in my prayers
I’m the same - the desire for an extreme weather event vs people/property staying safe.
My dad is also a bit of a weather nut and lives in Capel about quarter of a mile from the cliffs. The fact him and my step mum live in a mobile home type bungalow isn’t ideal! But he’s keeping a close eye on things and so can come down to town if needs be to me or my sister.
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16 minutes ago, daniel barber said:
60mph gusts in Essex are almost a yearly occurance. Look at last year storm eunice had winds gust at over 70mph across the county. Not attempting to downplay it at all. But right now it's certainly not looking much different to your annual windstorm which causes problems. Edit this is only for this local area. Other areas like the coast snd southwest and Dover for example it's looking bad
@alexisj9 and I will be holding onto our hats Thursday for sure
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I really can’t remember much about storm Jude in 2013! Eunice last year caused a fair bit of damage locally, with garage roofs being ripped off and trees down.
The worst ones I can remember (this’ll age me!) is the great storm of 1987. We got the day off school and had no electricity for a day or so, my mum and dad took us out the next day to look at all the damage like the ferry being washed ashore.
Then there was another big storm in 1990. We got sent home from secondary school at lunch because there had been a warning issued and the buses were stopping, but it was already really windy at that point and was actually quite dangerous with some of the girls being blown over on the way home!
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4 hours ago, alexisj9 said:
Incidentally, some models are giving the highest gust for here in SE Kent in the early hours of Friday, probably as a front comes through.
I feel like we often get the strongest winds after the event here in our SE corner? It’ll be windy, it’ll calm a little and then we get a last strong blast
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10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
Daniel Defoe to the forecast office please. (reference to event, OS dates Nov 26-27, NS would be Dec 7-8 1703, worst storm known to track across s England on a fairly similar track to Ciaran as modelled on GFS 18z). Difference was Defoe storm was at new moon, so a larger storm surge occurred (Bristol area badly flooded). Severe wind damage across south.
Even so, fairly large tidal range for this event too, given moon's orbital position near N declination max after a full moon, would be very concerned about coastal impacts all along the south coast.
As it stands, high tide here is 6.8m around 1pm when the strongest of the winds are forecast.
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I am under no circumstances forecasting another 1987, but the similarities between last night’s fax chart and the 6am fax for 1987 are similar.
The image for 1987 is taken from the Met Office write up of the storm, link for anyone who fancied a read https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2012/10/12/how-did-the-great-storm-of-1987-develop/
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45.5mm so far today and 18.29mm yesterday so roughly 66mm overall from this system.
And I see they’ve just issued an amber warning from 9:30pm until 1am for the IOW east towards Dungeness for all that rain moving across the Channel
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1 hour ago, matty40s said:
Just saw this one on Twitter too and found the corresponding street view on Google maps. It’s crazy how much damage has been caused
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Tropical Cyclone Tej has caused flooding in parts of Oman and Yemen, with up to a years worth of rain falling in several days:
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0.7mm of rain since midnight and quite breezy from the south this morning. Warm too at 16c.
Very quiet on the main forum, thought everyone would be up and analysing the latest outlook for the rainfall across the UK but barely a peep since yesterday.
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27.1mm since 3pm and also warm. Wish it was cold and clear
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1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:
Still under heavy red rain, have been for a while, most if Kent, orographic?
Seems to reduce north of us.
Much more rain here than I was expecting. Currently at 27.1mm and quite warm again for a while earlier when the rain was at its heaviest (for the time of year).
Have a newly discovered leak in the flat roof above our porch/downstairs loo thanks to today’s rain. Need to do an emergency patch job on it tomorrow before it really gets going on Friday!
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3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
A months worth of rain in the space of 2-3 days is pretty extreme in my book. Parts of eastern Scotland could see 3 day rainfall totals exceeding >200mm with the more extreme runs suggesting >250mm+.
This, into an area that doesn't really see significant amounts of rainfall very often, it's unusual to see so much moisture piling in from the east. >100mm expected to fall fairly widely within a 24hr period with those totals doubling over a 3 day period. Personally, that goes into the extreme category.And this on top of what fell on large parts of Scotland recently too. I imagine the ground is pretty water logged already.
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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
It’s gone crazy here last hour.
Was woken in the night several times by the rain battering the windows and saw some lightning flashes.
Pressure on my own station currently 959mb (have cross checked this with others in Folkestone and all reading 959 - 960)