lottiekent
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I don’t understand why everyone is commenting on charts 10-14 days out like they’re gospel? When would you normally look 10-14 days in the future and say what you’re seeing is going to happen?
I’m not saying the non-snowy/cold evolution won’t happen, just that surely we are way off the timeframe in which anyone can be confident.
Will keep watching this thread and the output with interest!
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Frosty in the car when I left the office at 4pm, not bad going. Shame it’s going to be warm again by morning
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Before the freezing rain, leaves:
After the freezing rain, no leaves:
I could hear them hitting the other leaves on the grass as they dropped off as everything was frozen solid.
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33 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Ice rain all over the SE corner last night. With those first showers.
I saw both lanes of the M20 were shut because of accidents between Folkestone and Lympne just after the freezing rain fell, hopefully no one was injured.
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29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Manchester Winter Indices ranked
2013-14: 7
1988-89: 20
2006-07: 21
1997-98: 25
1974-75: 26
1989-90: 26
2015-16: 28
2021-22: 28
2019-20: 29
1973-74: 30
1987-88: 37
2007-08: 37
2016-17: 37
1991-92: 40
1975-76: 41
1999-00: 42
1992-93: 43
2002-03: 44
1994-95: 45
2018-19: 45
1998-99: 47
2004-05: 47
2011-12: 47
2001-02: 50
2003-04: 50
2022-23: 53
2005-06: 59
1979-80: 66
1996-97: 72
2000-01: 77
1993-94: 78
1983-84: 82
2014-15: 82
1982-83: 85
1977-78: 90
1980-81: 90
2017-18: 93
1986-87: 100
2012-13: 102
2008-09: 105
2010-11: 119
2020-21: 120
1990-91: 126
1995-96: 135
1984-85: 140
1976-77: 141
1981-82: 149
1985-86: 159
2009-10: 197
1978-79: 262
What is this representative of please?
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1 hour ago, MattH said:
Just flicking through some of the EC46 plots, amongst a busy weekend shift, and I think there is already some evidence for changes in there, for towards and beyond mid-December.
As ever the usefulness of the layout of the EC46 images on a day-by-day basis allows you to see clear trends and a few links to some of the more interesting ones are as follows...
The regime changes are trending away from a resolute 'blue' or +NAO to now a very uncertain 'no regime' signal in the latest plot. You can see how the predicted +ve NAO has been nibbled away at in recent days to now the most recent one nearly losing that strong signal altogether.
The other series of plots which have changed is the VP signal, obviously no surprises on this one after numerous comments and discussions on this thread, but the last few runs highlight that strengthening signal.
Lastly, the one that stood out the most to me was the general 500mb height anomalies - We can see how the signal was for -ve 500mb height anoms over NW Europe a week or so ago, with a cyclonic signal through the 18th to the 25th Dec. However, note how that signal has been nibbled away at as well with now the most recent signal showing something far more blocked.
Whether this is just run-to-run variability, time will tell, but I don't think it is. Again this is why viewing these plots in this format is better than looking at them individually as you can visually see and extract potential trends and there are certainly trends there in my opinion already.
Once this -VP200 signal and associated MJO event pushes further into the W Pacific with a resultant +GLAAM/+GWO rise, it should be a fascinating watch from an NWP perspective in the 10 to 15-day time period, again as I mentioned the other day, covering the final third (20th-31st) or so, or now perhaps even earlier...
Cheers, Matt.
I love the weather, have been a member on this forum since the demise of the BBC weather forum (with its infamous SCOD poster and 11pm closing time) so for more years than I care to remember. But I still have a lot to learn - I *think* what Matt is saying here is that the trend is towards a blocked signal with a colder theme for end of month?
Rather than making an idiot of myself in the mod thread from where this was quoted, I’m hoping one of my more learned SE members can help please?
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Current obs on my station and its falling as freezing rain, can hear it on the house and path outside. Can’t see a lot as only one small old fashioned streetlight a few meters away but the leaves left on the tree in the front garden are falling off readily as the accumulating ice weighs them down!
Kind of wish it was light to see it happen but equally relieved it’s dead of night as it’ll be lethal at the moment.
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Ridiculous there’s no warning for the far south.
It’s widely way below freezing!-
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Coldest night of the year here now at -3.7c, second lowest was February 9th at -3.6c
Last low before that was -4.5c on December 12th last year.
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Coldest since February here now, -2.4c
Wonder how low it would have reached had the grim murk from the west not been approaching.
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If only we could have a weather surprise for once, the precip slipping under the cold, giving some heavy snow to wake up to in the morning.
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A very cold day, maximum just over freezing and already down to -0.3c. Looks like it’s been foggy all day up on the Downs.
Very brisk on the seafront this morning, earned our warm drinks
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Saw a few flakes this morning briefly, not settling of course but more snow than I saw the whole of last winter in that one small shower!
Currently -1.0c and watching that blob incoming from the NE
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1 hour ago, MAF said:
That's more like it! thick frost and fog too. a froggy morning here in SE18.
loving the shard lights this year
Watch: How The Shard is decorated for Christmas
WWW.BBC.CO.UK
See the preparation work that goes into getting The Shard sparkling for Christmas.Nice! I’m at work in London office next week and should be able to see it if I go up the top (Gherkin)
Nothing here, just grey and coldish at 4c
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First frost here too, not a lot but still nice to see
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First snowflake icon of the season on MO 5 day forecast for me. Know it won’t happen but it’s early this year!
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Another unexpectedly rainy day, from the MO saying yesterday it’s be dry we ended up with 21.59mm!
Locally quite a bit of surface water now whenever it rains. Came across a section of road I’d never seen flooded before but a small stream runs under the road there so I wonder if the drains are just oversaturated now.
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Didn’t have a single flake fall all of last winter, yet SA get snow in summer.
In all seriousness, that is crazy weather!
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44.5mm of rain here today and chucking it down again.
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Up to 43.99mm so far today - MO warning said up to 45mm at the most in their warning.
Might just break 2 inches if it keeps it up for another 40 mins.
Cool night last night though, down to 3.5c before the wind started up again
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Scores killed by powerful earthquake in Nepal | Nepal | The Guardian
AMP.THEGUARDIAN.COM
Shock in Jajarkot in Karnali province about 300 miles west of Kathmandu caused at least 54 deaths and destroyed houses-
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It has gotten worse since I took those 15 mins ago. All local buses now suspended in Folkestone and dover
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I see the end of the amber weather warning has been brought forward to midday and the area shrunk to Kent and Sussex
SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Decided to watch Geostorm again this evening. Lovely trashy weather based nonsense. Perfect for Christmas