karyo

It is the only one that brings the trough here so I will take it! haha You should do fine with the gfs projection which takes it to Cumbria

Guys, the euro 4 is only a problem when we have marginal situations and keeps the snow on the high ground. It should be fun to watch in a day or two.

There are some cheap flights to La Palma at the moment. Book one.

Agreed! We want the low to stay further south as per the ECM.

The start NE and then the direction varies, gradually becoming more easterly and then possibly ESE. I think that's a good thing as areas that miss out in the NE can then get some activity as the wind direction changes a bit. Still disagreement regarding Tuesday's trough. The gfs has it further north with mainly Cumbria benefiting while the ECM has it further south missing much of our region. The exact position won't be decided till Monday I think. The good thing is that both models are are starting to pick up a lot of showery activity and troughs.

Do you mean during the early Jan weekend easterly? It was dry as a bone here but it was very light and the uppers were far from impressive.

Troughs will be picked up at a sort range.

Fingers crossed!

GFS and UKMO are awesome with a proper bitter easterly. ICON less of an easterly, still cold with low minimas and flabby little lows bringing potential for snow.

I wonder if we will get a frost tonight. There are just scattered clouds here but looking at the satellite, the east of the country is much cloudier. https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

I think it is wrong for Cumbria in particular because Tuesday's trough is expected to affect that area quite well. Of course it may be further south in which case there should be something for the southern half of the region.

It feels like it is taking forever!

Only a short drive to the nearest snow.

By the way, the Met Office update sounds like an upgrade to me. See the text in bold which was not there yesterday. UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Feb 2018 to Friday 9 Mar 2018: It will stay very cold as we head into March, with sunshine and snow showers. Showers are most likely across eastern and central parts of the UK where accumulations may mount up. Further west, large accumulations are still possible but much less likely. Winds will be light to moderate for most, but across southern Britain strong easterly winds, possibly gales around the coast, will make it feel bitterly cold. Night time frosts will be widespread and severe in places too. There is currently a possibility of more unsettled weather trying to push in from the southwest at times towards the first weekend in March and beyond. This could bring more significant snow and gales to southern parts of the UK but there is currently a lot of uncertainty with this. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Yes, March 2013 felt bitter even in the city centre. It was the last time i felt properly cold here.

I go to the gym in t-shirt and shirts throughout the year but it is only a 5 min walk from my house. Also for the supermarket which is just 3 mins walk from me. The convenience of city living! haha

People dress like Eskimos here and I am just out in a light jacket.

The GFS will not properly pick up rain shadows so far out. This is a job for the euro 4 and the Aprege much closer to the event.

The Sunday chart is a southeasterly so not good for our region. haha. Thankfully it is more than a week away.

Yes, if it is a proper cover. When it is just enough to turn the ground white the sun makes short work of it. I saw this happen in 2013 here. Look out for a Humber streamer ;-)

If only, we could get those uppers with a westerly! Pity we won't be around when the next ice age begins

Yes pretty crazy! One more reason to think there will be intense shower activity from the North Sea.

Good to see the deep cold is still on track. As for snowfall, too hard to predict at this stage. The first thing to see is the track of Tuesday's shortwave. The 6Z gfs takes it through the northern half of the region while the ECM has it a bit further south. This will not be finalised before Sunday night or Monday and even then slight variations can occur. After that it is a case of snow shower in the east forming bands and moving west. As a general rule, the greater Manchester area is always drier but not completely. For example, the easterly of Feb 2009 gave a good covering here and so did the one in late Nov 2010. We do of course have the stronger sun now so a light covering can still vanish as March 2013 showed pretty well. Fingers crossed that the shower activity upgrades as we approach the event.

The Azores high got bored of its usual location and migrated to Cabo Verde! It can stay there as far as I am concerned.

Yes, we need the models to stay as they are now. Nail biting stuff!