karyo

Are you going to be knocking your head against the wall after every run till next week?

No need to apologise, I think it is a very relevant question for this thread. I think the models can pick those shortwaves in the 96 hour range but there can be variation in the exact track.

Also, western Norway when the cold uppers reach that area. That's why it is best for the easterly not to be too far north.

I agree but no to worry, if we get a direct easterly the snow showers will cross the Pennines. I have seen it happen several times. The problem is when we have low pressure to the southwest which creates the dreaded rainshadow effect. With a bit of luck, after the easterly the high pressure will move to Greenland with a cold attack from the north, northeast or northwest..

I would love to believe that we will have harsh winters to look forward for the next 25 years but I can't see it be anywhere near as good. I just expect more frequent cold spells and generally colder winters due to the southerly tracking jet. The planet is sadly warming fast and there is less cold air to go about. By the way, Arctic ice is at a record low and the last record was only set a year ago!

It feels awesome to read GP's post in the stratosphere thread. Basically, this is a huge stratospheric warming event and it looks like the AO will stay negative through March into early April. This cold spell is probably just the start in a series of events!

Fair enough. The only thing I don't like in the models currently is the orientation of the high pressure towards the end of the week. It points the cold towards the Alps and we get a southeasterly flow which warms up the uppers thanks to the interaction with the mountain range. It will feel cold at the surface of course but if the orientation was further west we would get the cold uppers much earlier.

Are you looking at precipitation charts nearly a week away?

I can't believe that we have a good chance to experience the most exciting weather in years and some people want the cold spell to downgrade so that the infrastructure and the birds don't suffer! We experience boring, benign, mild, sleep inducing weather all year round and with climate change cold spells get less frequent and severe so why should we feel guilty for craving this event? I hope the charts stay as they are until they get to T0. Nature will cope and if a school closes for a day the world won't collapse.

It will have no effect.

Very cold 12z runs so far. for next week!

Oh yes, Jan 2010 was brilliant. I remember i came back from Amsterdam to an ice day in Manchester. The ground in the park was rock solid and there were some hard patces of snow here and there. Then the snow showers came from the Irish sea followed by more organised snow. Even the city centre was at a standstill and the snow didn't melt for quite a while.

What you say makes sesne to me in terms of deep cold and ice days. I think this spell cannot be as good as 2010 in terms of cold because we are very late in the season and the sun has too much strength now. I will of course be glad to get the cold no matter how late it is. I absolutely hate a mild spring! lol

I think Nov/Dec 2010 had a juicy easterly and then a stonking northerly. I think a straight easterly is better for this region than a northeasterly but to be honest i will take cold no matter where it comes from. haha

hahaha I know what you mean and 2010 was great here too. When you live in more rural areas lasting snow has a decent possibility to occur but here in Manchester it disappears before you know it. That's why snow on the Pennines is important to me as it takes no more than 15 minutes to get there. I hope the easterly materialises and then thanks to the major SSW we continue to see northern blocking and further wintry outbreaks through March.

To be honest, if the Pennines get a good covering of snow it will do me just fine. I just want to see those -15c uppers covering our region. It would be nice to see some cold temperature records drop for a change. However, in reality most cold spells get watered down in the end.

It has to be said though, it is worrying that the ECM has produced the last two runs and if it verifies it will be a massive let down for all of us. Looking at every run of every model waiting for the deep cold to arrive from the east only to give us a fleeting visit and then gets followed by a not particularly cold northerly. We need to see the ECM come on board asap.

Yes, this would be the perfect easterly. Nobody would miss out on the fun.

We will have to wait till the 12z to see the 180 chart. The 6z doesn't go that far.

Indeed, cold southeasterly flow but milder in the northwest.

Overall the 12z gfs is a lot cooler than the earlier output with plenty of frosts.

At 141 hours the gfs is giving us a sausage from the east but it needs to adjust north because otherwise the easterly can be found in the Pyrenees and Alps latitude.

The Aprege has taken a step back from the easterly though. I think the picture this afternoon remains mixed.

The updated Aprege is ok but not as good as the 0z https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=0

At 144 hours it is going the wrong way https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021