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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Fantastic way to start the new season!
  2. karyo
    The Aprege continues to have the High pressure too dominant and further south than the other models. The 12z is a small improvement to the earlier version though. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=0
  3. karyo
    And look at all the further activity queuing up in the North Sea! Too early to take precipitation charts seriously though. We need to wait till Sunday for that.
  4. karyo
    No don't! Knowing our luck it will make the event too marginal for us.
  5. karyo
    There was frontal snow with a large rain shadow over greater Manchester. There was big variations of snow depths when this happened. There was just a dusting in Manchester.
  6. karyo
    Looking better for a frost tonight as drier and clearer air is moving in from the southeast.
  7. karyo
    There were plenty of snow showers during the March 2013 easterly event. Unfortunately, the accumulations of snow were brief here because the sun between the showers was strong enough. Maybe if we get heavy snow showers they can give a decent covering that will not disappear. There is of course the possibility of a frontal event. Snow cover or not I am looking forward to the potent easterly and the hard frosts.
  8. karyo
    Better than a watery westerly
  9. karyo
    Exactly! In a couple of days we can start looking at the euro 4 precipitation charts.
  10. karyo
    Yes, it will be dreamy if the charts look close to this by Sunday. Then we can start looking at precipitation charts with confidence..Been burnt too many times!
  11. karyo
    Yes, even the Aprege is looking better this morning. The other models are looking great and they have all upgraded from yesterday! I am trying not to get carried away but confidence is increasing on a very potent and hopefully long cold spell.
  12. karyo
    Yes, that's a fair summary. 24 hours ago they pretty much all looked good. Still plenty of time for things to change.
  13. karyo
    Exactly, we can only say what we see. Some people will disagree but that's fine. C'est la vie!
  14. karyo
    Thank you for providing the evidence!
  15. karyo
    No inaccurate info is posted. Yesterday the deep cold (sub -10) was coming Sunday and continuing uninterrupted for days. Now it is shown to come on Monday briefly before it gets moderated by the shortwave (so less last -10) and then the next pulse is coming Wednesday. So there is a delay and a discontinuity in the deep cold which is still many days away.
  16. karyo
    Exactly! We have seen this time and time again but when you say it you become enemy number 1! lol
  17. karyo
    Nick, aren't you concerned about all this deepening of the shortwaves? Of course, it looks like all snow on the 6z but we know they often eat away the cold uppers sort to speak and the mild sectors appear.
  18. karyo
    Exactly, by next Wednesday! Yesterday it was showing those uppers a day or two earlier.
  19. karyo
    For sure, that's not disputed.
  20. karyo
    Relatively deep for UK standards but not nothing compared to what the models were showing yesterday, with a strong easterly and uppers -13 to -15. Of course it is still good but the shortwave development doesn't do us favours in terms of cold uppers.
  21. karyo
    But it also delays the deep cold. Any delay is bad news in my book. The 6z takes till next Wednesday to bring the deep cold easterly.
  22. karyo
    This is for worse unfortunately as the shortwave cuts off the cold air from the east. It may be temporary but we can do without it.
  23. karyo
    Let hope it has an off day and it discards the shortwave in later output.
  24. karyo
    So far from the 12z's ICON and UKMO are great but the Aprege is a disappointment with a clear shortwave developing in Scandinavia! https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=0
  25. karyo
    I will take cold weather anytime. Spring can suck it! lol
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