sundog

What ever the weather has in store for us this Xmas at least the month of Dec will surely be colder then last dec. At least that is a starting point for those hoping for a white Xmas this year lol.

14.8c for me please

Dull and miserable here,temp 16.7c, its like a world away here from what parts of the uk are getting lol. Not that i care much for heat anyway.

Well I wouldn't mind that at at least up until the latter half of Oct. But that is what I'm fearing.

so a very stong signal from the seasonal models for a warmer then average autumn. A real sickner,our autumns really are getting beyond a joke now. Autumn? Whats that? We dont get proper bloody autumns anymore.

First day of the season that had that kind of autumn feeling about it,not temp wise but for its inclemency. Wet for most of the day although there was a brief brighter period in the early afternoon which allowed the temp to briefly hit 20c. Some very heavy showers this evening. I had to put the lights in my house on earlier this evening then i have had to for many weeks.

This is what Roger posted on an Irish forum yesterday doesn't make for good reading for cold lovers if he is right. I suspect all three months of autumn will run 1-2 deg above normal and rainfall may be heavy or even excessive at times with the potential for strong windstorms by late October and November. If there is any cold air to be had this coming winter, it will probably wait for the second half of the season or even into March. There will be a few nice spells too and they could last up to a week in one or two cases at least for southeast counties which might also not be as wet or as windy in general terms; for Britain I am predicting a similar outcome for Scotland and Wales, northern England but more frequent blocking high pressure spells for southern England which may make the rainfall there closer to normal. It just looks to me as though west-central Europe and the east coast of North America will be favoured locations for upper ridges with a trough mid-Atlantic, strong zonal flow and not much if any high latitude blocking to disrupt a mild pattern. He is usually not too far side of the mark,god though I couldn't take another dire autumn/winter season.

Accuweather going for a stormy autumn for the british Isles. Wet, windy conditions to stretch from Ireland and the U.K. into Scandinavia On the heels of a cool and wet summer for parts of the United Kingdom, an increasingly stormy autumn is expected. Frequent storm systems from the Atlantic Ocean will bring rounds of rain and gusty winds to the British Isles before lashing southern and western parts of Scandinavia. Wind storms will become more likely as the season progresses with multiple named storms expected before the end of November. The strongest winds and most rainfall is expected to target Northern Ireland to Scotland early in the season before increasing in frequency throughout the rest of the British Isles from late October into November. "While the most widespread damaging winds will not target Southern England, rain will increase the threat for flooding late in the season," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. Post-tropical cyclones from the Atlantic Ocean will add to the stormy pattern across the U.K. with heavy rain and locally damaging winds. The highest risk for tropical impacts will be from late September through October. The wet and stormy weather pattern will result in largely near- to below-normal temperatures across the Isles with the best chance for above-normal warmth occurring in southern England

A dull cloudy and often damp day today which gave me my coolest day in a long while. Max of 15.8c.

So long as it doesnt hang around for too long with the warmth pattern lasting well into autumn ,that would do my nut in. once we hit sept i hope we get a pattern change to some cooler autumnal weather. At least with the upcoming warmth the sun is getting a little more gentle in the sky being that little bit lower.

Today should make it 20 spotless days now this yr-all since the start of the summer.

I nailed a month this yr at last after missing out on 2 other months this yr by 0.1c. each time.

^^^^^^^^^^ So a strong signal from the models for a warmer then average autumn,yet another autumn for the scrap heap so. Autumn just isnt autumn to me with mostly above average temps. The models are showing everything i dont want ,mild and wet. I would love a cool and dry autumn but thats looking like a long shot this yr yet again.

15.9c for me please.

In the latest update on the enso the wmo say that a la nina event may develop in the 3rd quarter of the yr but if it does it is likely to be weak.

I like autumn , i used to love it but not anymore due to the fact that for much of the season autumn doesnt feel as autumnal as it used to. It just isnt the same anymore most yrs now. Around halloween time is one of my fav times of the yr but the last 2 yrs around that time has been much milder then normal,so i couldnt even enjoy that ,in fact it was around halloween last yr that the mild weather that we would endure for many weeks set in. Hopfully late oct this yr wil be more traditional.

True but I didn't know where to put it and it's too early for a winter thread.

Early look at winter 2016/17 http:// http://www.ukweatherfo...her-forecast-201617/ Link doesn't seem to be working so I just copied and pasted the text. From UK weather forecast. Last winter’s unsettled weather was largely dominated by a combination of a strong El Nino and strong westerly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation). It was clear that these two factors combined would produce a strong Atlantic flow during December last year and through much of January this year. We certainly won’t see that combination again this winter so let’s see what the early pointers are. So with El Nino now officially gone our attention turns to La Nina and its clear from most of the long range models that La Nina will be in full swing by the time we reach our winter season. Thick yellow line indicates average of all the model runs. This line drops below the 0.5c threshold needed for La Nina at around mid to late summer and will be in full swing during Winter. Solar activity is also likely to play a major part this winter. Many cold winter periods in the UK have coincided with very low solar activity and while there is no direct connection, low solar activity does have a very strong correlation with an amplified jet stream. This amplification leads to blocking and when blocking occurs across the northern hemisphere, cold air from the arctic floods down to lower latitudes, as was the case here in the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11. The chart below shows that we are now heading into low solar activity. In fact at the moment the sun is actually spot free (29/6/16). Solar sunspot numbers heading towards very low levels. So taking these two factors into consideration we can look back historically and see what years had very similar factors. The years found where the winters of 1954/55, 1964/65, 1973/74, 1995/96, 2007/08, 2010/11. Starting with December using the air temperatures at 1000mb (close to the surface) there is a very clear signal for much cooler than average temperatures during early winter. This signal was present when we ran the data using all La Nina years as a base, however, after adding the low solar factor the signal became much stronger. This signal is one to monitor very closely in the coming months. Historical UK winters, December: Below average temperatures clearly being shown. January and February signal a fairly average outlook with temperatures near average across the UK but January does show hints of warmer temperatures to the south of the UK but looking a February the hints are for Europe to return to a colder pattern, with Greenland looking rather warm, perhaps indicating a block here. Historical UK winters, January: Average temperature more likely. Historical UK winters, February: Average temperatures are likely but with scope for below average. So we do seem to be heading in a very different direction this winter with the Atlantic flow looking less likely to dominate like it did last winter. Add in the fact that we will most probably be in an easterly phase of the QBO as well, this only enhances the chances of the Atlantic flow becoming disrupted, thus, more chances of colder weather developing.

My min temp last night was 18.0c,in these warm summer nights I long for the return of autumn.

Cheers born. 20.9c at midnight here sure is a warm night.

Highest temp ireland today was 30.3c at Mount Dillon ,county roscommon. I wonder is that the first time since 2006 that a temp in the 30s has been recorded in ireland? I dont think it quite made it into the 30s during summer 2013.

Mount dillon ,county Roscommon was at 30c at 3pm,its been a long while I think since anywhere in Ireland recorded temps in the 30s but it's been done today.

Recorded my warmest day today since the summer of 2006 ,max temp of 27.2c. Most of the day was partly cloudy with sunny spells but it became much clearer during the evening. Currently clear,temp 24.1c

Recorded my warmest temp of the summer so far today. 24.3c this evening in what was fairly windy second half the day. Currently 21.0c in and rathe humid.

So far accuweather have not been too far wide of the mark with their summer 2016 forecast.