ANYWEATHER

I have to say ecm and gfs at 00z could not be more different at the T+168 . Not buying into gfs evolution,or not the extreme side of it anyway, I hope I'm wrong for you cold fans out there.

With low sun minima in December, it's great for cold as we saw last year ,without super cold synoptics, but we need the jet stream to become less powerful, and move north into the Artic and then the UK is in business! The coldest Winter of 1962,63 in the UK, for 240 years happened because Greenland had one of its warmest winters ever......

Too much energy coming over the Atlantic from a powerful Jet stream , Shots of cold , that's all folks...in the next ten days....

I think that chart shows wind speed at 5,000 ft (850 mb) level, in kmh . There is jet stream charts on netweather and gfs.....☺

Jet stream is too strong being sharpened by the strong thermal gradient between the Poles and the subtropical highs , which is quite normal for this time of year ,as the Artic primes itself for The Polar Winter. We need a relaxation of the jet ,which will come , but for now any wintryness will come from temporary amplification in the Atlantic ....which the models do show, I'm looking for a fragmented jet stream which will help build high pressure to our north, but for now it's playing the waiting game ,

Really? Poor charts for deep ,long lasting cold this morning, Ecm has a similar ,chart at day ten ,as the chart looks this weekend, and gfs is flopping about like it normally does! The good news is that the relentless rains look like easing as high pressure is close by, but we are going to have to wait a while for proper winter synoptics, but that's a good thing in my opinion!

Struggling to get on the community page tonight again….

Just noticed the Ecms 12z chart viewer has not updated tonight...?

Wild Geese and Garden paths come to mind...

Indeed! These two charts from ecm and gfs show some amplification in the Atlantic for a time next week, but as you say the overall pattern is changeable with temperatures generally around average ,all very Novemberish!

Beautiful blue skies here this afternoon, wish it would last….., Beautiful blue skies here this afternoon, wish it would last…..,

Lovely late morning here…

How can anyone say it’s game over for winter, when Winter hasn’t even started? There is no deep cold or anything synoptically to produce early winter weather in the Uk in the latest charts. Yes some cold incursions as the jet stream buckles , but the strong thermal gradient over the Atlantic keeps powering up the jet stream as it often does at this time of year…!

It really is not acceptable to have forecasts such as today go completely wrong within a tiny time frame. With all the technology these days you would think that situations such as today would not exist ,but it does happen ,very frequently

It was just very slow to activate the community page. I tried other websites and there was no problem at all and very quick...!

Yes struggled again to get on to community forum, I have a very good signal on my phone where I am….

This was yesterday’s output for today and also today’s output…

Computer models have failed miserably again on precipitation forecasts, as the rain in the south was not showing up yesterday…..

Just normal late Autumn charts at the moment . Any cold looks like being short lived but at the same time nothing screaming above average temperatures for a long period either. I always describe November as like being in a dark wet and windy tunnel. This year is no exception, but there will be light at the end of this grim tunnel in the not too distant future

It’s Mother Nature , know one knows what will happen…..

Well ,our Internet is extremely fast here ,had it redone a few months ago, it seems to be working okay at the moment though!

Very unresponsive forum today......

Yes ,for instance the " Jakobshavn " Glacier had been steadily growing for a number of years now ...

A nice Autumn day here for once ….

With a high level of Shanon Entropy , there are so many cards on the table from the models. I think it’s about sitting tight and seeing how things unfold. At the moment the Atlantic is King, but it can’t carry on like that forever, we are due by the law of averages a drier spell soon, and generally drier this time of year equates to colder weather , but not always. What we don’t want to see is high pressure over southern Europe. That’s a cold lovers nightmare, but equally we want to see lower pressure over the Mediterranean and then we have every chance of seeing Winter magic , patience is required……..