damianslaw
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A chilly start to March. Average temps for the foreseeable, no appreciable warmth or cold. -
Mentioned many a time, winter 09-10 by far the best both in terms of snowfall and amount of cold. Though late Nov and most of Dec 10 was exceptionally cold, it brought limited notable snow here. Worse winter 13-14 just one day with wet snow that settled briefly, barely much frost or cold weather. 15-16 a very close near worse.
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Very interesting archive stats and info. I wonder whether there was influence from volcanic activity. The year of 1816 'year without a summer' I think was attributed to major volcano. However, others places were warmer thsn normal. One of those oddity years when the UK receives coldest anomalies. Nowadays that never seems to happen.
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A Face like Thunder Only vague memories of 1985 summer, sadly the 4 summers mentioned coincided with prime outdoor childhood play time, 7-10 years old and I remember far too many rainy days in the summer holidays/weekends. Summer 89 made up for it. Summer 84 was very good here, very dry, parched brown grass on the local 'rec'.
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Despite abundant sunshine, the fells have retained a deep cover from 550m up, well the east and north aspects have. The Coniston - Bowfell - Scafell to High Raise range looking resplendent white. The cold snowy start to March is redeeming the snow season somewhat, but only a very little... We maxed at 8 degrees today.
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Metwatch A rather odd anomaly, aleutian low, arctic high, deep low over scandi, iberian high, weak low to our west..Can see why scandi had a cold winter, and why we had a mild one.. had the atlantic been more actively stronger perhaps this would have thwarted the iberian high, with a southerly strong jet phasing with the scandi low. You can see we weren't far off a cold winter, no strong low to our NW.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
damianslaw replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Taking cursory glances at the models presently, when heights to our east are set to develop, you never can be confident just how things will pan out, and in such scenarios I give them far more leverage and room for error, expecting them to change at short notice. In this context, I can't call which is closer to the likely end destination. We may see a southerly, se, east or ne flow by the time we enter mid month period. . -
1996 was preety decent, but forgotten about because of the fantastic summer of 95. An early heatwave in June, followed by a lot of fine albeit warm rather than very warm or hot weather. Decent conditions for getting out and about with some rain at times. This is from a Lakeland perspective.
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I don't have the statistics, but I think 1986 was the best of a bad lot. I remember 1987 and especially 1988 school holiday periods being dire, just wet. 1985 also very poor. I'd rate 1985, 87 and 88 as bad as each other. 1985 came on the back of a poor spring as well. 1987 delivered an excellent April at least. 1988 came on the back of a lacklustre spring. In this context 1985 probably felt worse.
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A far better day than the last two across the Lake District. Fine winter walking conditions provided had the right kit and confident in snow and ice. Snowline roughly 500m and the afternoon sun did little damage to it. Indeed the fells are looking resplendent with a thick white coat, as good as at any stage this season, indicative of how poor its been for snow. March can often bring the best snow conditions - usually calmer, and air temps remain very cold with height gain. with added benefit of light- a far better month for snow than December. A cold frosty night in the offing. March is making up for February snow barreness.
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Summer Sun March as with December looks to buck the theme of months since September which have started on an anomalously mild note. Alas Dec imploded quickly into mild. Need a cold start to March to manage a near average month I feel, it is a rapidly warming one, by late March, sun is as strong as mid September. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
damianslaw replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All a long way off, but ECM going for a full long draw easterly by 11/12th. I remember the snowy 12th in 1996 and 2006, indeed second week in March has often delivered a cold snowy punch. Lets see if it holds firm with this idea. GFS less keen making more of low pressure to our SW positioned wrong for colder uppers. What is becoming quite clear is our first scandi high of the season, rather late for some, but on its way and very normal for March. -
A few sleety hailstones in the heavier precipitation, temps between 4 and 5 degrees. Definately a firm gloomy winter feel to things today. A quick descent into dusk I feel. All rather grim on the back of an equally cold wintry Friday. We need a 'spring' boost after 4 months of wet gloom. Ground is absolutely sodden, the phrase ' the darkest hour before dawn' springs to mind.. one last push through March...
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A cold raw afternoon here, raining, current temp 5 degrees. Ive seen pictures of snow at Patterdale valley level 150m. The lack of sun is retaining the snow at all levels, making for a very wintry day out on the fells. I imagine it will have caught many out. Further snow to modest levels rest of the day. Tomorrow may dawn icy with light frost.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
damianslaw replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO and ECM both show the atlantic trough undercutting scandi heights, GFS eventually goes there, but heights then oriententate in a position that prevents cold uppers invading. In these set ups its a watching brief, usually need to see such evolution within 72 hrs to have a guarantee of verifying. However, spring starting on an interesting note if you don't like seeing the atlantic in full steam, we haven't seen such synoptics since late November. Spring traditionally brings highest likelihood of northerly and easterly airstreams. -
C J No met office warning, Im surprised none as conditions 200m up certainly warranted it. I thought north cumbria may have done well for relatively low level snow, given the persistance of the precipitation yesterday into the evening. Alas nothing here, snowline about 350m I think hard to tell. Fells are thick with snow. Once again late Feb/early March delivering good winter walking snowy weather, better than most of the winter. Today has snow interest, the feature to the south will swing north and enhance convection. Winds off shore as well, only downside is daytime hour heating. Current temp a chilly 3.5 degrees. Another cold raw early spring day ahead.