damianslaw

Sometimes October and November can offer teasers as to what the winter may bring. Low pressures that dive into Europe on a NW- SE trajectory, rather than west-east, can be a harbinger that the atmosphere is not all normal. Also low pressure that comes unstuck over the UK, cyclonic spells. We've largely seen a sluggish jet since Dec 2020, lets see if it continues.

Its called a maritime climate, when the airflow is between SW and NW, more often than any other direction, it is humid and temperate, lots of associated cloud. As we move into October, such air generally means showers or overcast skies between fronts, unless there is a long fetch polar flow entrenched.. then brighter showery air occurs, the NW polar maritime airstream. The tropical.maritime airstream is absolutr worse here, detest it, returning polar maritime not much better. Polar maritime, arctic maritime and polar continental in the Oct to March period are the best for clearer conditions. Tropical continental and SE flows can be very dull.

Reflections on past winters will always be based on local conditions. Decembers 1998, 2001 and 2004 all brought some snowy cold conditions at times in the north, 2001 notably so, that was an underated December, exceptionally sunny, frosty with snow at times second half. Dec 04 brought a white christmas here. Dec 98 transient snow early on more so in the NE, overall Dec 98 worst of the bunch for snow and cold.

Jan 2023 will mark 10 years since I've received what I would class a heavy single snowfall, 6 inches plus. We just missed out in March 13 and late Feb 18. Plenty of 1-3 inch falls since only. Hoping this winter produces at least one heavy fall that can stick around a couple of days at least, preferably falling on a Friday. Not much to ask for!

Cold cyclonic would suit cold lovers and those wanting rain which may turn increasingly wintry by year end. Won't suit those wanting to reduce energy bills.

A very contrasting month, one of those switcharound ones, where a very mild first half is cancelled out by a colder second half to produce a near average finish, and a mean that doesn't reflect the month at all.

I can't recall any winter when 'factors' have stacked in favour of a colder than average winter. Solar state may have been a key factor in the slightly colder than average winter 20-21. Last year I think we were unlucky, heights didnt quite align in a place for cold against a sluggish atlantic. Whilst the analogue years mentioned apart from 10-11 were mild overall, Dec 01 was quite cold, 98 brought a northerly shot, 04 as well, 07 brought a cold frosty spell, so Dec at least could be wintry. Apart from 07 the Novembers were cold at times, with northerlies. Looks like northerlies could be a strong feature end of the back, with strong mid atlantic ridging.

October is the time when there is a psychological shift from the summer state of mind that kicks in when April arrives, exhanged to the winter state of mind. We mentally prepare ourselves for the long winter ahead. In this sense 1 October and 1 April might be said to be most pivotal points of year for the mind body and soul!

My interest picks up late October.. we are in that transitional period when odds of 'extremes' temp wise at least are at there lowest, though at the start of the 6 month period of the year when storms and heavy rain most likely.

October usually one of our most mixed changeable months and often wet, sometimes very wet. Struggling to see a below average month, but perhaps quite cool at times, similiar to September without the warmth. Ill go a slightly above average 11 degrees. Could be quite wet in the north at least, but fairly dry further south at times. May well see a northerly plunge at some point. Overall a very average autumnal October, nothing out of the ordinary. Sneaky feeling November could be less normal.

A rare instance of a day that sees a cold front move through and warms things up, inidicative of the fact there is still residual warmth from the sun combined with atlantic flows this time of year. Current temp 13.1 after having been held below 11 degrees before the clearance arrived.

Back edge here now.. cloud breaking and some blue sky poking through. Look forward to when cold fronts do this further into Autumn with bright brilliant clear cold skies behind in polar air. Love it when this happens mid afternoon and we then see a rapid cool down in the eve and clear skies. Alas this one has no polar air behind it, just more showers from a SW flow.

This is true mid autumn weather, tye type we see alot of mid Oct to mid Nov. Can see the back edge of the front not too far to our NW.. whilst a broad band it has shifted through quite quick. Expect rainfall totals well in excess of an inch over much of Cumbria today. All welcomed for the reservoirs and groundwater levels.

Nearing on two years we've had heights strong near or over UK. Seems entrenched.

Very heavy rain now and gusty winds. Nay be a squall of sorts. Its miserable!

No Friday feeling weatherwise, low cloud to valley level, heavy rain, current temp 10.7 degrees. Many a noon December day the same.

Just looked at the radar, mass of rain knocking on the Lake District door.. can easily see an inch out of this in the valleys, quite possibly double it on the fells. However, it looks like moving through quickly.

Noticing tree leaf colour changes, but we are a good 3-4 weeks away from the most vivid evidence of change. Lots of acorns on the floor. Not seen chestnuts as yet.. the environment is now though in full autumn change.

A pleasant day, felt quite warm, light winds and dry. Tomorrow oh dear, a day to stay indoors.

Where was -1.5. Notable cold for September.

Yes some of our coldest winters have taken until christmas to get going.. with very mild wet starts and strong PVs start of the winter. Always nervous when we have cold starts to December for snow cold prospects in heart of winter, mind 08, 12,17 and 20 all had cold or quite cold starts and the following winters brought further cold in Jan and Feb. I'm not a fan of UK highs start of winter or the scuerio high as it is cold, these tend to bring frosty conditions but are fended away by the atlantic. 2006 and 2007 classic examples.

Yes similiar, though New Year period was cold. Winter 20-21 was decent for cold and snow in the north, on and off, similiar to 08-09. What tarnished it was the pervading gloom and anxiety caused by the pandemic.

Thanks for these. First air frost for Southern England, not bad coming in September rather than October. Upcoming evenings set milder thanks to milder airmass, more cloud about.

In winter this would most likely give snow to central, eastern Cumbria, unless there was a warm sector involved, but unlikely given the uppers at the moment are quite cool. We don't often experience frontal features from the NE, and in cold dry air I suspect much precipitation may be squeezed out this side of the Penines, but on occasion such systems can deliver copious snow especially to eastern Cumbria, penetrating about as far as the Keswick to Windermere. The NE coastline is not actually that far from much of eastern and central Cumbria, closer than the rest of the NW region. Its been a chilly day, a bout of heavy cold rain this evening after a cold start. Brr.

Not commenting much on the models at present, namely because it all looks very average and typical for the time of year, cooler wetter spells interspersed with milder calmer ones. Mind not been able to say very average much this year.