Climate Man

Metp Flash Warning has now been issued

There is a pretty nailed on snow event for most of the country tomorrow night and Tuesday is also looking very promising. Beyond that it is anybodies guess and none of the models have a clue. I have never seen such weird patterns and I guess the models have not either......

He was put on the spot and rather than sit on the fence - chose to jump. If the GFS pans out, then the bookies may well be paying out.

I am not sure that we will be looking for the next cold spell then. I am not convinced that this one will have passed. The GFS keeps trying to revert to mild in FI but the breakdown is continually pushed back. There is no reason why this should not continue.

Yes, great post. I believe you are spot on. The split in the PV and northern height rises are showing regularly and there is a fair chance of the building blocks falling into place.

I have a degree in Geography but specialised in atmospheric science and climate. I have also studied climate as a hobby since the age of 10 - 31 years ago. I am a skeptic, not a denier, but after those 31 years am still of the belief that we do not have the ability to model the complexity of our environment.

They forecast record breaking heat for last summer!

Skeptic means open minded so I don't see why not, though temps. did seem to level before the La Nina event.

As an AGW skeptic, I never thought that I would agree with Gray Wolf but it has now happened. All of our heat/energy comes from the sun. If Co2 raises temperatures this will only happen with the sun's energy. If the sun went out any amount of C02 would not stop us freezing to death. Even some AGW activists are having to agree that recent temperatures have plateaued or are even falling. If CO2 has risen and the sun has no effect - how can this happen?

Hi, I agree with you and as Snowmaiden says, it is the onward trend that is important. However, please don't say "ever" as you begin to sound like Al Gore. Since records began perhaps but "ever"???!!!

From my own records in Warwickshire, March has been the 11th consecutive month below the corresponding month in the previous year. April is almost certain to follow. If I was pro the AGW arguement and the reverse was true I expect I would be using these figures, as it is.........

This ice sheet may be the largest on the Pensinsula but is, in Antarctic terms, quite small. It is well know that this part of the Antarctic is warming whilst others are cooling. Normal, non-event, in my book.

Going back to the original question. Are we talking galcier length or volume? Galciers advance faster when snowfall increases or it warms - meltwater causes lubrication. They slow when in cools or snowfall decreases. The speed then has to be balanced against air temperature. The maths behind this is complicated. With regard to volume the maths is a little more simple as we are looking at an offset of snowfall against temperature. The two scenarios are all about balance and galciers may have a net advance or volume gain in both warmer and colder conditions.

Hi all, Have seen lots of debate about what makes a glacier speed up. Quite simple really - two things. Heavier snow falling on the mountain top (this may be seen as against or for AGW depending on your view point) but also increased melwater under the glacier which reduces friction. Hope this helps

5.5 for me.

I wonder if anyone can help. I have been tasked with sourcing news reports,general footage, old weather maps/forecasts etc regarding extreme weather around the world. These are required for use demonstrating multimedia equipment. In other words they need to be played on stand alone screens and audio. Any ideas would be most appreciated.

I do not think anyone is denying the trend, only the causes and the future trend are in debate.

Will try to find but off to a meeting now

I think you are bang on both in that there is no 100% evidence either way and in spite of my leaning to non AGW I agree totally that the environment should be protected as far as possible given the world that we live in. The issue is that some people get carried away with the sheep, mainly governments and the press. I am not saying that you do. All that I am saying is that there is a lot more to learn before we all get carried away. If we learn that you are correct then I will accept that. At the moment my personal opinion is that there is not enough evidence. Let me give you an example, it was expected that due to AGW there would be more hurricane land falls in the USA last year. There were none. A paper has now come out saying that less landfalls are expected as a result of AGW. These people have far more knowledge than me, and I assume you but have a complete about turn in 12 months.

I don't think that any one has denied that temperatures have risen. Any debate is associated with why and what will happen next. My punt and this is just my view, is that a levelling off will be folowed by a decline. The bad new is that it will take 5 - 10 years to be proved wrong or right. The great question is how!

Yes CO2 is a GHG in the lab and indeed in the atmosphere BUT it is the other interactions that need to be studied and in my view the whole feedback mechanisim that results. I do not know if CO2 directly raises temperature because any rise created may also create a cooling mechanisim. e.g. Warmer sea, more cloud, warmer nights, cooler days. IF the cooler days outweigh the warmer nights it could be said that CO2 is causing cooling. Last Summer was a good example of this in the UK. For me the interesting part of climate change is the resulting changes in circulation patterns. In which area these occur either N,S,E or West or indeed whether effecting continental or maritime areas. This in can have short term wather effects or long climate effects.

I have studied climate and climate change for 30 years and have formal training in this area. I have yet to be convinced that AGW exists or that CO2 has the effect that the "Consensus" says that it does. I too worry about excuses for tax increases and excuses for scientific research grants. I also worry that there is an alternative political agenda to reduce energy usage as we have capacity shortages on the way. Yes temperatures have risen but equally they could fall - as I expect them to over the next 10 years. Winters have been warmer but I believe this results from natural variation in circulation due to El Nino, La Nina and others.