Climate Man

In all my years of model watching the 12z ECM has to be the worst in terms of both cold and boredom. Where do we go from here? Not a clue.

2018?

No, humans will slowly die. Human CO2 emissions will stop. The vegetation will grow with lots of CO2 fuel and no one to interfere and the world will return.

Problem is that I love to get snow whilst sun is at a premium. Window is only really December and January.

October 3rd!

My favourite place in the world. Skied there 20 times and was there in October. There is not as much snow as parts if Italy or Austria but still this is abnormal for Mid November. The worst I saw was as far back as xmas 1989 when there was no snow at all but for a 100 m piste on the Schilthorn

Slightly above average for both months in Warwickshire according to my figures but expect October to finish below, now.

I took the following pictures in the Alps at the end of September. I am not a great expert on clouds and wonder if someone can help with information about the type?

Does anyone have stats for Glosea seasonal forecast as I for one take no notice whatsoever at this stage....

Snow may well be ahead of schedule but I am really concerned that we seem to be getting a repeat pattern from last winter. ie the euro high is causing Atlantic depressions to stall and fill to the west of the UK and thus sw/w winds prevail.

That is the exact forecast that I put out to my friends for that period last week. It does seem that there is a model trend in that direction and hopefully it will firm up over the next 48 hours - perfect!

I agree, I am running 1.6 degrees above average fir my location and it has felt wet and miserable. Actually, looking at the charts as we run up to the month end we will end warm and wet, true of this summer generally

Thank you for all of this Roger, will be very happy to look at this with a very open mind.

Driving in Germany in winter once on autobahn. Heavy snow and drivers side wiper arm flew off onto the night. Was cold though and most snow blew away.

FV3 FI, is though, a thing of beauty and one day it will be correct - won't it!?

More or a less a year to the day when the Beast first showed.

It was about 5th February when first sign of Beast showed on GFS. Was looking poor at the time.

Back in the 1980s I wrote a detailed paper on the accuracy of the BBC forecast that followed the 9pm news. I came up with my own method and corresponded with them, particularly Jim Bacon. I can't remember the way round but my figures and theirs were 85% and 87%. Thus my method seemed to work. My gut feel is that accuracy is currently suffering - climate change - man made or otherwise? Something is different. Not extremes such as in the States or Australia but something. I don't still have my methodology but it would have been fun to run the exact same test.

MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?

MetO have actually been quite poor throughout with a forecast that they just keep pushing back. Why should they be correct now when they downgrade?

I have a January mean in Warwickshire a degree colder than 2018. Winter was very late and still not even a twinkle bin the eye on 28th January.

It was only 5th/6th Feb when first signs of Beast showed up on GFS!

It seems to me that we are still in the very early stages of learning about the effect of SSWs. Until we have a much more refined view that can successfully be programmed in to the model algorithms, we will be left chasing our tails during and post these events.

BBC Weather last night indicated a small arm of the jet heading due north over UK and taking that with it.

BBC forecast I saw ten mins ago said "there may even be a bit of snow about" no mention of short lived......