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Climate Man

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Everything posted by Climate Man

  1. Climate Man
    Nothing wrong with that as may introduce a snow opportunity in it's own right and colder air does arrive. Also better heights Atlantic and Greenland
  2. Climate Man
    There is a firm trend towards cooler conditions with the GFS again pushing everything further south. Even a shallow surface high appearing over Greenland now!
  3. Climate Man
    Ever warming North Sea? At its coldest now but will not warm until mean air temperature exceeds sea temperature. That is certainly not happening yet!!!!!
  4. Climate Man
    Not really. Holds in terms of European pattern but a huge change in heights to the NW which is detrimental. The previous run showed a near perfect retrogression and this has now gone
  5. Climate Man
    Cannot agree with that. There has been s significant pattern change over the last 3 or 4 winters. This year included - and far more similar to the 70s and 80s. There will be a sting in the tail off this winter too. The patterns are far from settled at the moment. I struggle to remember such variation in outputs and this continues.
  6. Climate Man
    As far back as 1983 I studied BBC forecasts for a month in each season. I devised a marking scheme for comparison with actual - Summer showed the lowest level of accuracy.
  7. Climate Man
    Well, I did not see that coming! Would be fun if is was not so stressful! This is the greatest period of uncertainty that I have seen and whilst it was easy at the time to laugh at the METO forecast, I can now see their point!!!
  8. Climate Man
    Roller coaster is not a strong enough term. I would Bank the GFS run every time. OK the short term is not quite as good as yesterday evening but medium terms oozes potential and in the coldest part of the winter.
  9. Climate Man
    I think there is a change but not dramatic. I for one cannot now see any deep cold in January - would love to be wrong.
  10. Climate Man
    Hate this run. Still can never quite believe how much can change in 6 hours. Hi res is fine but then all goes pear shaped again.......
  11. Climate Man
    Too early to worry about "Polar Westerlys" You use the key word - potential - lots will change but at last we have potential
  12. Climate Man
    OK 12z now we are talking. Signs of a split in the Vortex with a large section moving over Scandinavia and thus allowing heights to build to our North - as I suggested may happen last Tuesday evening. Still in FI and loads can change but all to play for and first signs of the Strat waming kicking in.
  13. Climate Man
    06Z started well with HP over the Arctic but out of the reliable it all went pear shaped again - similar to the 12Z - still all to play for. Don't discount a big change as 10 days comes into the reliable time frame.
  14. Climate Man
    Well I actually like this output. Things jumps around dramatically and it is very different from previous outputs with lots of opportunity for changes to something that the majority would like to see. The Vortex goes off on one and more runs are needed to see how it will settle.
  15. Climate Man
    I remember a sustained period winter 84/85 - fantastic here but cannot be more accurate at the moment. That is not the key anyway. It is the height migration from NE Canada - watch this space
  16. Climate Man
    I am not looking for a Scandi High but for a migration of the PV to Scandi with height rises building from NE Canada to Greenland at about 220hrs
  17. Climate Man
    I read all the doom and gloom on the previos page after seeing the 06Z - could not understand the doom and gloom as had not seen the previous output. The 06z is not fantastic but gives more potential than any for weeks in terms of cold. The next few outputs will make for interesting reading. I wonder how may members will be here rather than partying tonight......
  18. Climate Man
    It is not quite as you were with the Jet much further South and not as flat. The interesting part is the "wobble" mid run and not the end output.
  19. Climate Man
    Certainly the models look as though they are trying to pick up something. Early signs of a pattern change and indeed heights are trying to build in some interesting areas. Next couple of days may well be interesting.
  20. Climate Man
    Well the GFS 12z is really stuck in a rut. Flirts with something better mid run but then the rut returns with avengance. No sign of any change until far FI.
  21. Climate Man
    I have to agree with you But the current "stuck" pattern looks as though in general terms it will continue well into August. Should it continue into Autumn then we are looking at a cold start to winter.
  22. Climate Man
    Colder than February!
  23. Climate Man
    That was my first weekend in my bachalor pad. Woke up to no power and evacuated back home - took 3 hours to do 6 miles.
  24. Climate Man
    Had a light dusting of snow on a Tuesday night - I think about 8th December. My Mum sais it was too early in the winter to last...! The rest is history and there was snow on the ground until after Christmas. I think we had 4 days without snow until the great January blizzard which was better than everything in December - those were the days....I even kept my own weather readings then and ran the school weather station.
  25. Climate Man
    Best forecaster on the BBC
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