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Climate Man

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Everything posted by Climate Man

  1. Climate Man
    Whatever your views and or camp, it has been a very interesting year so far with very slow melts, fast melts and a rapid re-freeze. Wilst I don't agree with GW generally, one has to admit that ice, age, thickness an denisty are more important than extent. However, if there is to be a repair of this type of ice, then extent is a good starting point and things are very positive currently.
  2. Climate Man
    <br /><br /><br />Will be fascinating to see what comes next - thought that actvity may continue to increase - what card will the sun play?
  3. Climate Man
    Pretty average - 10.5
  4. Climate Man
    Re-freeze this year looks to be earlier and more rapid than at any time in the last decade. May be that there is more open water in cold latitudes to freeze or more fresh water content from melting. BUT I will be very interested to monitor progress as I suspect we are in for a bumper year.
  5. Climate Man
    Horse Chestnuts is a disease - forget the name - spreading across this species. Leaves are turning earlier every year but are actually being attacked.
  6. Climate Man
    I am a "denier" but for the first time ever I share the concerns of GW, however I do believe that their will be dramatic changes in the autumn that will reflect the changing conditions in the Pacific.
  7. Climate Man
    Well said Laser and CC. Not sure if my eyes are deceiving me but looking at all of the data that I am aware of, I can only see an inmproving trend.....
  8. Climate Man
    Certainly, as we have seen many times this winter, anything particularly mild is pushed well back into FI.
  9. Climate Man
    06 GFS showing better alignment for cold, similar to that shown pre- weekend. Still not huge potential for snow but will certainly remain below average. Woops 12Z
  10. Climate Man
    December 7th. 100m asl Warwickshire
  11. Climate Man
    I remember 18 months ago on here there were those that thought that we would never see two below average months in a row again. There is little trend for warmth which keeps getting put back. The reverse of previous years. In fact I have not recorded double figures here, 100m asl in Warwickshire, since 7th Dec. Model output does indicate another below average month and I see no evidence for any change in the recent below CET trend.
  12. Climate Man
    I would like to nominate the GFS 0600 as the chart of the winter
  13. Climate Man
    That really would be a fantastic end to a great winter, snow followed by severe overnight frost and in March too!
  14. Climate Man
    Less sweating going on down my neck - the 12Z is the exact trend I was looking for. The excitement levels rise.
  15. Climate Man
    I am going to put my neck on the block here. I think that past experience shows GFS eastward progression to occur in situations like this. It would still not take much change in the right direction for the majority to see some snow. For me, roll on this time next week. PS I have seen snow every day this week too!
  16. Climate Man
    Hi, I think the issue is that you tend to look at every little change and are eager to jump in and comment. Much better to relax, watch, look for trends and then to make considered comments. Much better for your blood pressure.
  17. Climate Man
    Whilst there is some concern over the use of the term, the latest GFS suggests a slight upgrade - perhaps not for snow but at least for cold and longevity of the cold spell. Better placement of HP and towards FI a slight drift to the East will make for some interest.
  18. Climate Man
    I may be half asleep but the Meto 6-15 reads like the GFS 0600 looks in my opinion.
  19. Climate Man
    Agreed, I know that that the METO need to cover their backs but thay must have good reason to ignore their output and go with others
  20. Climate Man
    Why would it be a "very brief event" To be fair cold air has not really left us for over a month and it looks possible that this will continue and if you take the 06GFS there is no real end in sight.
  21. Climate Man
    That has to be the biggest swing on the GFS in a 6 hour period and that is saying something. This year is different, for whatever reason and neither the models or I suspect the model watchers, know how to handle it.
  22. Climate Man
    However, their are signs of both an Arctic High and split in the PV in deepish FI, if this is the start of a trend then it is very positive for the end of January/early February - often a cold time.
  23. Climate Man
    I know on liners are frowned upon - what about two words. What breakdown?
  24. Climate Man
    You may be surprised, I predicted little or no breakdown over Christmas and this was correct. The models are struggling and whilst it may be a litttle less cold at times I believe that temps will stay below normal and a breakdown will continue to be pushed back.
  25. Climate Man
    Watch for upgrades on this and add a "0". Expect troughs to develop in the flow.
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