johnholmes

It will be interesting to watch which model consistently and correctly predicts a change in pattern from the current set up. Will it be the anomaly charts or the synoptic models? That is within a 15 day time scale as the anomaly charts only go out that far.

dry with a lot of cloud, mostly low St with Ci visible above, a low of 9.9C

Clody with ocnl rain, 2.8mm so far and a low of 9.6C

I expect you believe in Santa Claus as well!

Dry but mainly cloudy, mostly St but some Ci above visible, a low early on of 6.6C now on 9.6C

very wet at times this morning, briefly 37.2mm at 1045, total today=9.8mm

Overcast but dry at the moment, the main rain band remains west of here, just 1.0mm so far and a low of 11.0C

well it got worse, patchy fog and sky obscured for a time, now back to where it was when I last reported, fairly dark, dry and overcast, temperature 12.9C and dewpoint not much lower so it feels quite mild unless in the breeze.

The anomaly charts and synoptic ones mostly seem to have got the idea of an upper ridge E/SE of the UK and the main trough well out in the Atlantic. This gives overall a flow from south of west into the UK, so on the mild side most days. How unsettled is for the synoptic models to give detail. links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

A dull dampish start but no actual ppn, very mild with the low at the moment 10.9C

8.6C under clear skies at 1930 now 11.3C with cloudy skies

dry and overcast, a low early in the night of 4.3C now on 6.8C

For those who might like to see how the upper air pattern is being predicted on the 500mb anomaly charts I use, see links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html These two have varied over the past few days on how to deal with the trough/ridge pattern, this morning it is GFS which has more ridge showing, yesterday it was EC, so to me they, while giving an idea of a flattish pattern westerly at 500mb they are not consistent enough to be really reliable. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Prior to the last 2 outputs the NOAA suggestion was for a rounded type trough just about over the UK with some extension into Europe and little sign of any ridge. The last two days and it has gone down the road you see in the link above. Again consistency over more than 2 days is lacking. So again it would seem prudent to me to reserve judgement. If the pattern is similar again this evening then, on the experience of using these charts over 4-5 years, then I would 'go' with the NOAA pattern. If they show some marked change then forget all 3 for a bit!

Yes a cold start, but not quite a ground frost with a low of 3.2C, quite thick layers of Ci

dry, cloudy, a low of 9.0C

I made these notes earlier after looking at the NOAA 6-10 day chart noaanoaa on FRI and the 6-10 has reverted back to the idea of ridging/building anomaly heights fairly close to the uk, see below notes from Wed below Noaa 6-10 much as one above but slight increase in +ve heights over uk with slightest indication of ridging e of Iceland towards Greenland; this is increased in both on 8-14 Also on both trough is w of last prediction Missed Thur link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Not too sure as it is quite a change over 48 hours but it is supported by the 8-14 chart. As to what effect the very large Hurricane almost on to Mexico will have, who knows, we have to wait for 2-3 days to see how the anomaly charts behave let alone the synoptic models.

for those wanting forecasts this link gives the main 2, MIWIS (ex colleague) and UK Met, you will also find several web cams not just Cairngorm but the other ski areas also. Well worth saving. http://www.winterhighland.info/weather/#Q6

Fairly cloudy, dry, with a low of 4.3C

thank you for your usual up beat report Richard. I do hope you are a little more happy when at home with your family. Life sounds so depressing for you from a weather point of view. Quite often too your comments are somewhat different from other posters in your area. You mention work, just where is that and how far from Aberdeen. genuine interest Richard.

dry with 1/2 cover CuSc, lowest so far is 11.5C so mild

highly unusual for me to do this and I apologise for doing so but it is to show that the anomaly charts, for all the negative comments about them at times, are often the most reliable, if they show consistency, for the 500mb pattern over the 6-15 day times range. post from last evening I think it is fairly clear that starting today the weather is going to be more changeable in most areas, more so the further W/NW one lives, quite windy, looking at the mean 500mb charts which suggest some fairly deep lows at times. ECMWF-GFS are not very 'stable' at the moment but the NOAA output, in spite of NOAA comments about their domain, the 500mb anomaly charts have given consistent charts for several days. Just how the Pacific will play out with the input from typhoons is just as likely to be inconsistent at the surface as a result as it is when Hurricanes/tropical storms, arrive in the N Atlantic. It looks obvious, however the surface actually ends up in the 6-15 day time frame, that more wind (gales-severe gales) will be most felt in the NW and perhaps W as well. NOAA link http://www.cpc.noaa....10day/500mb.php AS to how the models are dealing or not dealing very consistently with surface lows over the next week does make for interesting model watching.

Cloudy with ocnl rain at the moment, total 11.6mm so far, a low before the rain of 8.9C, now on 10.8C

re the above, I am unable to give any reason. It might be interesting if you sent an e mail to them to ask?

I think it is fairly clear that starting today the weather is going to be more changeable in most areas, more so the further W/NW one lives, quite windy, looking at the mean 500mb charts which suggest some fairly deep lows at times. ECMWF-GFS are not very 'stable' at the moment but the NOAA output, in spite of NOAA comments about their domain, the 500mb anomaly charts have given consistent charts for several days. Just how the Pacific will play out with the input from typhoons is just as likely to be inconsistent at the surface as a result as it is when Hurricanes/tropical storms, arrive in the N Atlantic. It looks obvious, however the surface actually ends up in the 6-15 day time frame, that more wind (gales-severe gales) will be most felt in the NW and perhaps W as well. NOAA link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php AS to how the models are dealing or not dealing very consistently with surface lows over the next week does make for interesting model watching.

the actual phrase was this will perhaps spread northwestwards