johnholmes

That is true, but being somewhat pedantic, could we say they do take past weather into account when the algorithms are tweaked? again no to the best of my knowledge but perhaps an e mail to UK Met might reveal, if their web site does not, exactly what goes into their model?

Beautiful morning, less than 1-2/8 CuSc until 45 minutes ago when a lot of shallow Cu developed, no wind, sunny what more could one ask for in October?, T=15.6C

nope simply run with current actual weather as they always have done

Cloudless with no wind, a low of 5.4C

copied below THIS PAGE PROVIDES THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL SUPER WEATHER COMPUTERS CALCULATING THE UK WEATHER FOR UP TO 15 DAYS AHEAD OF THE PRESENT UPDATED DAILY HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY OCT 7TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure will move away out into the North Sea today followed by a ridge of High pressure moving East into the UK today and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level at just under 5000ft in Western Ireland and close to 8000ft in eastern England. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with a little rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods developing again too especially later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows he flow split to the North and South of the UK for the next few days. The flow becomes weak next week and gradually realigns well to the NW of Britain before diving South across the UK in Week 2 in association with Low pressure to the East and NE. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather improving now as High pressure builds across the UK which first to the East and NE of the UK before High pressure in the Atlantic takes control in Week 2 with a chilly North or NW flow towards the end of the run. Rainfall amounts look very limited for all of the UK throughout the period of the run today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run shows much very similar conditions with High pressure developing as I type and persisting in one shape or form across or near the UK until towards the end of Week 2 when the Atlantic breaks through with some rain and wind. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days has a majority bias towards High pressure lying close to or to the West and SW of the UK with fine weather for most of the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure building across principally over the North over the weekend and start to next week with fine and dry weather there while the South comes perilously close to being influenced by Low pressure to the South with a chilly Easterly flow and the risk of some rain in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning shows High pressure developing to the NE of the UK with an east or SE flow developing across the UK. Low pressure lies to both the South and NW early next week with most of the rain bearing troughs associated with this held mostly at bay at the 5 day time point. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM also builds High pressure back across the UK from the North-east later this week with some fine and settled weather for many for a time. Then through next week the trend is for High pressure to decline slowly and Low pressure with rain to edge up across the UK from the SW towards the end of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM looks a lot like UKMO this morning with North is best in regard to fine and settled weather as a ridge of High pressure persists across these areas next week. Meanwhile Low pressure to the South may be close enough to being a keen easterly breeze, cloud and some rain at times up into the far South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning has the building of High pressure too through the end of the week and weekend. the axis of this is a little further South than the rest of the output maintaining fine weather for all in light winds. Later in the run the ridge relaxes South and allows Atlantic westerly winds and rain to slowly feed down from the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying in slack pressure between High pressure both to the SW and NE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles but with some rain at times towards the North and West and perhaps elsewhere in more isolated form. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still good agreement now on a largely fine and benign spell of weather developing again across the UK from later this week once the demise and final resting place of ex hurricane Joaquin is established. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM tying with UKMO at 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.8 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts then GFS at 83.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.3 pts over GFS's 50.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.2 pts to 33.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models have finally settled on the final resting place of ex hurricane Joaquin and it seems we can now rest assured that it will remain out of harms way to both the NW and South while the UK settles into a period of benign and quiet weather as High pressure builds from both the NE and SW. Low pressure looks like remaining to the South of the UK for quite some time delivering a chill Easterly breeze across the South with some output indicating that Low pressure could be close enough to give a little rain to Southernmost parts. then in the latter stages of the two week period High pressure seems to hold on as the most governing factor across the UK, maybe slipping a little in dominance later as the Atlantic finally wakes up again. Nevertheless, once more today there are no major weather problems looking likely over the coming few weeks and a lot of the weather for outdoor activities look's generally OK given the time of year it is. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif I was struggling to find a particularly bad chart today but the GEM 10 day chart would ensure a cool and wet day for much of the UK especially the South as Low pressure moves up from the SW. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Contrastingly, spoilt for choice in the best chart series with the GFS 144hr chart representative of many as High pressure is shown well established over the North of the UK with fine and settled weather for all. Next update from 09:00 Thursday Oct 7th 2015 Quick question Gibby, took me 20 secs, so why do you not do the same please, rather than the link to your web site?

Just a 'bit' different to the days when surface observations on land and sea were, along with 6 hourly radio sonde data, the only data available at each main synoptic hour. Those were the days!

Raining again but not had much overnight, a low of 12.2C

Not what the official definition says

Well with the rain after 2000 last evening and today a total of 25.6mm and muggy most of the day with a max of 20.4C

Tropical Storms/Hurricanes that get into he N Atlantic have enormous amounts of heat and moisture in them. Far more than the usual N Atlantic weather systems. This makes the hugely complex meteorology even more complex and difficult to handle. So this one is little different, if at all, from similar disturbances than get caught up in the Atlantic weather patterns.

The answer is almost certainly no. The upper pattern and the sequence of development of the two systems is quite different.

Interesting in both the short term and longer as to the actual surface chart be it ex hurricane or longer term. The link below shows NOAA idea on its track, seems a touch further south than earlier predictions http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025053.shtml?5-daynl#contents UK Met Fax chart link below http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 was issues last evening so maybe it is a shade further north than NOAA are suggesting? As to longer term then ECMWF-GFS remain at loggerheads as to the upper pattern pos 6 days with EC nearer to the NOAA 6-10 version, links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php NOAA has been pretty consistent in its suggestion of upper air pattern evolving so I would stick with it and EC rather than GFS. However, as always when ex hurricanes are involved in the initial stages of the model run then care needs to be exercised in just how the pattern will end up. The idea of +ve heights and possibly 500mb ridging NE of the UK does seem a reasonable pattern. This would allow the remnants of the ex storm to move either north to the west of the UK or into Biscay. So interesting model watching at various time scales.

Still a few spots of rain at times after a wet end to the evening and overnight,11.8mm, and very mild, the 'low' is 15.0 which is the average maximum for October.

Cloudy but dry at the moment, a low of 6.0 now up to 11.0

How about we get back to discussing what the title says please folks?

mushy is it possible for you NOT to want the last word about your and other folks interpretations please?

NOAA anomaly charts are pretty consistent and sequential in their upper air ideas but the ECMWF-GFS are less so. I suspect that the ex hurricane is the cause. I would go with the NOAA versions but with less confidence than usual until Joaquin is out of the way. links below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Dry, fairly cloudy but some gaps in the Sc allowing sun out at times, no fog (in spite of Met O warning), no wind and a low of 8.4C, currently 11.2C

No fog but overcast, looking at the Davis the cloud came in about 0100 or so, a low of 5.7C then

The fog cleared much quicker, with the sun from a hazy sky rather than sky obscured as in previous days, so ble sky by about 0930.

dry but damp with the 6th day of morning fog, a low of 4.9C

Cantley September 2015 A month with few days of rain but just a touch above average total; totally dry for last 10 days. Mean T above average as was maximum. Last 4 morning’s thick fog, quite unusual for that consecutive number in any month Mean=13.6 (13.0) Avge Max=19.2 (17. Highest daytime=10th with 23.6 and coldest=14th with 14.8 Avge Min=8.1 (8.2) Coldest night=26th with 4.7 and warmest=12th with 12.8 Just 6 days with any rain at all, 7 with 0.2 mm or more and 6 with 1.0 mm or more. The wettest day was 15th with 7.8 mm. No thunder or frost hail or snow but 6 days with fog at 0900 clock time

The suggested track of the hurricane into the N Atlantic is interesting, if only to see how differently the 2 main models deal with it. Not looked at UK Met to see where it has it at 120 and 144.

sadly no reply from the long range folk

anybody watched this-wow-takes 20-25 minutes but inside the space station https://www.youtube.com/embed/doN4t5NKW-k