danm

Looks good! Surely that trough moving down from the north will give most of us some snow. Hopefully it wont fizzle out as it pushes south. There also looks like a small trough pushing in from the NE to SE areas after the main trough pushes through.

Seriously ignore the BBC forecasts beyond 2 days. All the models are pointing to freezing cold weather, with the potential for snow come monday and tuesday.

Seriously mate, youre always banging on about how theres going to be heavy snow and heavy showers, streamers etc. Are you just trying to wind people up?

The warnings are out for Essex, Kent & E Sussex, yet a large circle appears in the middle without a warning, i.e London, as if the snow will just magically take a detour around the capital and meander into East Sussex. Surely some parts of east London have a chance of being affected?

Why is London and the far SE being left out of the widespread snow warning from the Met Office for Friday? Surely the cold air will have reached everywhere by then.

Anyone want to discuss the latest faxes and the "barbed" lines it is showing over the SE for friday? Ppl are saying possibly streamers?

Looks like this could be an epic cold spell. I hope the charts beyond saturday verify. Looking at the model agreement that is shaping up, it looks increasingly likely that they will verify to something at least near to what is being shown.

100% agree. I said this yesterday, that for our region don't expect anything but rain. It was always marginal even for those in the midlands and Wales, let alone for us. Our best bet looks to be thursday night to saturday, and then POSSIBLY on monday if that projected low from the SW takes a favourable path. The next 3 days were always going to be a write-off

Lol agreed. Its not good for the health following these low's. Any subtle shifts means a whiteout for one area and a washout down the road. Always better to have a frigid easterly with convection off the north sea. Less widespread snow, but you know it will be snow.

Looks great but that is way too far off, and fraught with even more risks as the milder air sweeps in on the 6th on those charts. At least the low from the SW (although being 6 days away) is in a semi-reliable time frame.

Do u guys think this area will get any proper snow in the next week? How's the E/NE'lies looking with re to snow for friday/saturday?

Forget about this frontal snow. Its likely to be extremely marginal at best. Its looking quite good on Friday/Saturday for our area. Lets not get too downbeat about the next 3 days.

Guys, why are you arguing about the backedge snow on thursday? Let's for the sake of our own sanity write off the ppn from this front as rain. The real cold for this area kicks in thursday night into friday. And despite what anyone says, with that much cold air around and winds coming off the north sea (even if its only for a 36 hour period), there is a fairly good chance of convective snow showers pushing west into our region. You just dont know what little disturbances and streamers will develop at short notice. Its happened many times before. E.g. Jan 2003. Not until the night before the 8th of Jan was it forecast that a heavy area of snow was developing in the north sea and the next day gave us 4 inches of snow during the day in London. It may not happen, but anything is possible in this set up.

I think thats the key thing - very often in these easterly airflows, small disturbances and convective showers sometimes appear at very short notice, giving some areas a good snowfall. I suppose we have to hope for that.

Correct. Ive just been reading posts from TEITS and others in the model output thread saying that they think the E/NE'lies will likely be very cold, but not much in the way of snow. As we are unlikely to get any snow from the front moving up from the SW (except a bit of back edge snow as it clears south) could this mean we dont get to see much snow at all? Those comments have got me slightly worried. Surely there'll be some decent convective showers off the north sea?

So you arent expecting much convective snowfall off the north sea for areas further south?

Very cold air

I think to avoid any disappointment, just expect it to rain here until thursday/friday and then hopefully as the winds swing round to E/NE we'll get the snow.

If im looking at the most recent update, it seems to show the low getting up to north wales by t96, then rapidly moving south east, drawing in the colder air. Am i right? EDIT: I was looking at the 00z link thats on this website, i think that might be yesterdays 00z. Not sure if im looking at the correct charts

Do you think the fact that the GFS is sticking to its guns in the short term means that it may be correct in its modelling of the low pushing further north? Shouldnt the fact that all the other models are going against the GFS mean that its being far too progressive with how far north it is projecting the low to go?

Down here in the London area i'd pick out these events: Jan 2003 Thames streamer snow event. August 2003 heatwave - 38c! Can't forget that week in early August, i had to sleep with 3 fans! Jan 2004 thundersnow event - left central London on the tube, it was dry and cold, walked out of the station half an hour later near home and there was an almighty blizzard with over an inch having already fallen in just over 20mins. The snow stopped within an hour and there was mayhem on the roads. Probably around 4 inches of snow by the end. June & July 2006 heatwave - Incredible heat. Day after day of intense heat, with countless days over 30c. Feb '09 snow - The heaviest snowfall in this area since the legendary Feb '91 cold spell. 7 inches of snow fell in this area overnight, which is a rarity.

Brilliantly informative post, especially for someone like me who is just learning what exactly to look out for beyond the blatantly obvious. Let's hope it all pans out in the way you are describing. We are long overdue a classic winter. Me being one month shy of 24, the only real severe cold spell i can remember is Feb '91. Feb '09 was the closest we've got since then down here in the SE, but not close enough. Thanks Steve!

Brilliantly informative post, especially for someone like me who is just learning what exactly to look out for beyond the blatantly obvious. Let's hope it all pans out in the way you are describing. We are long overdue a classic winter. Me being one month shy of 24, the only real severe cold spell i can remember is Feb '91. Feb '09 was the closest we've got since then down here in the SE, but not close enough. Thanks Steve!

Hope so!