Dorset_Weather

Brother is fishing on chesil beach and has confirmed lightning on the horizon.

Yep, sleet starting to turn to snow here in Blandford as I'm watching..........

The possible easterly is all good, just a few wrist slashers who couldn't wait for the runs to complete before commenting.

Electricity has now gone down......

Amazing how quickly it has developed.....

Several very close strikes now here in Blandford from the new cell that's popped up.

Yeah I'm right under that, was reading the forum and could then hear the rain, went back to the radar and there it was......another nice flash and rumble.

Well that went well..........

Working today, hauling from dorset to Wigan, started overcast and drab but from Avonmouth north it's been sunshine and blue skies.

What's the difference between a thunderstorm and a severe thunderstorm? These just look like normal thunderstorms.

Burst shots using a Samsung S6.

Different time but a very similar looking strike.

and another......

Yeah taken from a phone ☺

5 minutes ago just off the Dorset coast.

Overhead gunshots and still constant lightning to my south from Bournemouth direction.

Lightning seen and distant rumbling to my south West.

Which way are the seagulls flying in your location?

I'm pretty glad I won't have too far to travel, chasing for me usually involves a 300+ mile round trip.....will be nice to sit and wait for them to come to me. Good luck and safe journey to all you guys heading down this way tomorrow.

But this it always the case, has been the last two cold spells we have had recently, Due to the anomalies not picking up on a change as quickly as there raw model data because there MEANS and smooth out any quick changes to a more of an average. You can't say with any confidence there will be no cold within the next two weeks. What always happens is everyone will start getting excited about a possible cold spell in 7-8 days time, you spend the next two days warning people to be cautious as nothing is showing in the anomalies, then the anomalies start showing a cooler trend as more raw data starts to come on board, after the usual two day lag of the anomalies smoothing the pattern change you then start to confirm a cooling trend. So I would expect the anomalies to not show a quick change to cold unless at least half the raw model data was showing this before, your very good with pattern changes John but the patten between you and the anomalies is a very predictable one that we have seen many times. I love reading your very informative posts and your much more knowledgeable that me but I wish you would treat the anomalies as means instead of trying to make some sort of certain forcast two weeks in advance. 80% of the time the anomalies will be right as the UK weather is very average and anomalies always show the average, they have no chance of picking up a quick pattern change unless all the raw data jumps to cold all at once then they would but again they would just be showing the average.

Margaret Thatcher........Margaret Thatcher........Margaret Thatcher.....phew!Back ok topic and its looking good for some south central areas, lets hope we don't get too much fissel before it gets down this way :-) Edit: fizzle* spelling police out tonight!

To be fair forcasts are going to plan, we were never forcast -10 and blizzards, the run up to the weekend was always going to be transient, getting colder for the weekend with low chances of snow. All seems about right so far, fingers crossed for ungrades next week.

Really makes me laugh, you see someone forecasting the low to track through Yorkshire then check there location only for it to be Yorkshire. Someone then forecasts Essex to get a dumping from the low, where is there location..........you got it, Essex! More hopecasters on this forum than amateur forecasters!!!

Hi Fromey, Yes I agree, more often than not we don't fair too well from a northerly but due to the unstable airmass troughs and fronts are a good possibility, these are already starting to appear although still at unreliable time frames. I know most want accumulations but I'm just looking forward to seeing some snow falling and I'm sure most of us will. Wednesday/Thursday is when it all starts, the Met Office have been spot on this season and even they are confident we will see something.

Far too much negativity in here, anyone would think there was a bartlet round the corner! I know many feel burnt from the last cold spell but thats only because expectations were too high for what was being forcast. Im not saying everyone will see 12 inches of snow but synoptics are much better this time. 1, we have cross model agreement. 2, we have an unstable airmass. 3, due to popular belief 850's aren't as important as last week and most importantly the pro's were never on board last week, this time round there all beating the cold drum. Anything has got to be better than last year so lets look forward to the upcoming spell of seasonal weather :-)