Dorset_Weather

Did I hear possible supercell? Best I get the van rigged up tomorrow and maybe a chase down to the SE for more lighting pics in the afternoon if things stay as predicted

Hi Steve, Well I'm not expecting them to get as far as the South coast so may make my way towards the M4 corridor later but I'm just going to sit an monitor the situation for a while.

well it's now starting to hot up over the West Wales, Looking forward to the possibility of chasing tonight, batteries charged and a van full of diesel

Hey Steve, I'm not so sure, these heavy thundery showers do look like they will be heading South towards us this evening/tonight, will just have to hope they keep up there intensity when they get here, they could also be quite wide spread with some places getting a drowning and some staying dry. I certainly will be keeping my eye on developments today in the hope of jumping in the car in the hope of some more lighting pics :-)

Met office warnings now out for Wales. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

There is some lovely convection going on here just spent 10mins in the garden watching a small fluffy cloud blow up and climb developing a nice dark base in a matter of minutes. I love it when it happens so quick you can see them climbing. Not expecting much down here but we live in hope.

Cheers guys, damn that bloody bin lol. hopefully many more of them to come this summer I used my old Canon 10D with a 28mm-105mm lens, remote and tripod. Thanks again for the kind comments.

Went out on a chase last night hoping to get my first lightning pic but made the mistake of heading SE and there wasn't much about. Managed to get this shot though out over Eastbourne about 4am this morning, it was very rushed as it was distant anyway and moving away from me, don't think its a bad first attempt though

Anybody watching this? http://www.severestu...rielson&uid=140 Lots of tornado damage near Memphis. That feed is no longer available, but this one seems to be getting exciting. http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=james.skivers&uid=284

Nothing here on the south coast apart from some heavy rain, shame as it was looking promising to to begin with.

Trying to get some pics but as it is cloudy before the storm was approaching there's nothing really photogenic about it apart from a gradual darkening of the sky. Hopefully this baby will get more active as it comes more in land.

I'm on it Harry, just trying to get myself a better vantage point.

I've repositioned myself a bit further East and can see it approaching, looks very tasty Kev.

Well still quiet down here on the south coast, I've positioned myself near Weymouth ahead of the cell over the channel at the moment that seems to be intensifying nicely. Sky's are beginning to go very dark indeed. Kev.

Cheers coast, all info very welcome. Anyone else out chasing today? I'm still trying to decide where to head and holding tight at the moment Kev.

Temp dropping quite fast here -5.5c and still falling, if any of the sowers make it this far surly they will fall as snow

Hi Lynxus, This storm browser sounds good, What I could do with is some sort of GPS software running with the new V5 radar. Looking forward to this season, I've been treating myself over the winter to a laptop mount, digi SLR camera and a HD camcorder. Let's hope we have an active season. Hazard.

Yes I know what your saying, think the models always struggle when cold from the East is trying to establish its self, then they lend to get a grip 2 days just before its here..... hence the present mess. Once the cold is established they seen to catch up and we tend to then have a bit more agreement. Only my novice POV of what seems to of happened with recent easterly's. Kev.

Well after reading your blog it does seem like we may have a little to look forward to tomorrow. Thanks for your clarifying remarks on the model output thread, hope you didn't mind me quoting your post, just thought it was relevant and may of lifted a very negative thread this morning. All the best Kev.

Cheers Ian, clears a few things up and gives a little more confidence for the coming cold spell, always value you levelled opinion.

An interesting post from Ian Fergusson in the south west forum: Hi, just a very quick interjection to offer clarification, as I think there's a potential misreading developing here of the UKMO viewpoint regarding the (longer) medium-range prospects. Firstly, I should stress that (in advance of any interesting / noteworthy weather) the short-term NAE and high-res forecasts for our region are regularly fleshed-out on my blog (such as updates through yesterday - see http://bbc.co.uk/ianfergusson). However in my last entry, I've also started a 'generalist' style dip into how the medium-range guys at Exeter are assessing the 6-15 day modelling. Rather than me blather-on about it here, let me quote directly some salient expert thoughts from our latest (late morning) detailed Met Office briefing. I trust these 'snipped' passages offer suitable clarification on the collective thinking down in Exeter.... "4. Trend For Days 10-15: Lamb weather types are unbiased easterly with a below average Shannon entropy. Hence probably slightly higher confidence in this period than for day 6 to 7.5. Discussion: The deterministic models are well split for day 6 to 7, and the ensemble means have a col near the UK (showing a wide spread of solutions). Thus a very messy, temporary breakdown from the colder weather on day 6 to 7 (with low confidence in all detail). However, all ensembles want to bring back a southeasterly during day 8 to 10. Confidence is thus moderate for a return to a more continental airflow with a drop in temperatures. If anything, the signal for day 10 to 15 is even stronger, and backs the flow more to an easterly." Best Ian

Well that didn't go to plan UKMO still not agreeing and ECM starting to slide towards it, it's really looking dodgy now and could go either way. The next few runs from UKMO are going to be quite important and if it don't start show any sign of agreeing with the other models over the weekend we can kiss goodbye to our beast from the east. Hazard.

Fantastic post thanks SK Gives me a little more chance when lurking in the model discussion thread. Although still not nailed, it's looking very nice for around 8-10 days time, would really like to see UKMO come on board tomorrow and join the rest of the models.