Next drier than average season

[Summer8906]

I think I've given up on predicting drier than average months though I now think May.

But anyway, which of these will be it?

I guess we can probably say no to Spring 2024 now, unless we enjoy drought conditions from mid-April to end-May.

[MP-R]

Well probably have a dry period that spans two seasons but doesn’t make one particular season drier than average

Maybe May-Jul.

[SollyOlly]

 MP-R Good point, could be. I'm still assuming that we'll have a hot and dry summer, but that's based on recency rather than anything else! It's interesting to observe what seem to be weather patterns locked in for longer periods rather than the 'ever changeable' nature of the weather when I was younger.

[Summerlover2006]

Has march been that wet ?? it hasn’t seemed it to me many dry days and even when it did rain it was light and only lasted about 2/3 hours max with only one day or so where it was consistent for the entire day so spring 2024 could still be drier then average but it could be different with locations  

[SunSean]

I think the next season to be drier than average will be Summer 2044. 

Also the next month to have more than 200 hours of sunshine, also in 2044 and I'm going for July!

And yes that's not a typo, 2044, not 2024. This is our country now- mild, wet & grey! Pattern hasn't changed for months on end so I'm not expecting it to go back to normal in the near future. 

Welcome to Faroe Islands 2.0!

[kold weather]

 Summerlover2006 it will end up being considerably wet on average yes. Not as much as last year but probably 30-50% wetter than normal.

April looks to be fairly wet to start as well...though hopefully we can get a shift at some point!

[Metwatch]

It will either be a part of 2 seasons, May - July as mentioned above or the autumn itself. Been too long since a dry autumn and especially October. Not expecting dryness on the level of autumn 1978, 2007 or 2011, but it's got to be a drier one this year surely.

[WYorksWeather]

I still think Summer 2024 has a good chance. Or rather, it'd better do, otherwise the British climate is beyond hope.

[cheese]

If this current wet pattern is the new normal for the British climate then sign me up for a one-way plane ticket to just about anywhere else. It's not like our climate was exactly amazing to begin with, but what we've had to contend with since July is just awful beyond belief.

Edited March 27 by cheese

[WYorksWeather]

 cheese Knowing our luck, we'd all win one way tickets to the Faroe Islands.

[B87]

I'm going to go with autumn 2024, because we might get 99% rainfall in October and November, which are wet months anyway.

I'm writing off any chance of normal conditions ie dry and settled for the rest of the spring and summer.

[LetItSnow!]

I think unsettled conditions will prevail until the autumn but I do feel the autumn will be a dry one, perhaps very dry one, and fine like in 2007.

Edited March 27 by LetItSnow!

[Summer8906]

 B87 seriously? Or just a bit of light-hearted cynicism or general grumpiness (of the sort I myself am often guilty of lol)

I went for winter 24/25 but I think May and July will be dry, but not enough to make spring or summer dry overall. I'm also going for Sep and Dec drier than normal.

You said on another thread that Aug and Sep would be likely dry and settled, do you still go by that forecast or have you given up on the light of CFS?

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! If so, thank heaven I am getting out of the country in Jul/Aug and returning in the autumn.

I hate to think of what the effect on our economy will be if we get a poor summer. Agriculture will have a very hard time with the 12+ months of wet weather, unprecedented in modern times, and tourism will have real problems. I suspect many people (certainly myself) are having little faith in the coming UK summer so I suspect we'll get a spike in overseas holidays this summer.

As I said though I'm still thinking (hoping!) May, July and September will all be dry. May because of the 1998 similarities (sunny and hot in May), July because it was actually dry (if cloudy and cool) in 1998 and July often is the driest month of the summer nowadays (if cloudy and sometimes cool) and September because it's now been a while since the last dry one (2020) and Sep often features long dry spells.

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

For some reason my intution says autumn 2024 will see lots of high pressure overhead and to our east. Maybe like 2007 how after an extremely warm period we sort of ran out of steam and tended to be average to a little below pretty much all the way through until 2013 with warm interludes. Now, I'm not suggesting we're going to have a span of colder years until 2030, though unlike some I do believe absolutely that they are possible and will occur again. I have this intuitive feeling that the high pressure will dominate through the end of 2024 and give us quite a festive Xmas period and that winter 2024/2025 will be our first real winter in years, though that could vary anywhere from 2020/2021 intensity to full on 1962/1963 (I wish!... you never know (don't tell me the statisitcs of how rare that would be, I know!!!)). Getting a bit ahead of myself there. 

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! To have an autumn and winter like that would be the absolute least recompense for the appalling conditions of much of 2023 and 2024 so bring it on!

Imagine if autumn was the least depressing season of 2024. It would certainly be very very unusual but I'm beginning to wonder. And for reasons unrelated to weather too, though I will stop there.

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 The odds of October 2024 being excessively wet must surely be lower due to the fact that we've had an (IIRC) unparralelled run of wet Octobers since 2019. October 2024 being another really wet one would be silly. Regardless of what the summer is like, a dry, anticyclonic October would sweeten the kiss of the death of summer a LOT. I don't really care about cloudiness and I certainly don't care about the rain (I'm the only one enjoying the novelty of this current spell) but the light levels are really rough to me sometimes, especially over the past season which for personal reasons was quite taxing. It just doesn't help. I think when it's the dark months of the years it cheers you up to have a stonking big Scandi high blowing a winter wonderland your way, so by all means, if high pressure wants to dominate in late 2024 then may it do so in that fashion please! Meanwhile before then a 2001 style summer will do just fine. No big stonking heatwaves please. I want to feel normal   23C, bubbly clouds and a gentle breeze, who could want more?...

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! I'd be happy with a 2001 summer. Would be a vast improvement on the past 9 months!

And I'd be very happy about the autumn/winter you suggest.

We have indeed had a long run of very wet Octobers here. Oct 2021 had some spells of dry weather but three very, very wet spells (early, midmonth and late month) so was wet overall.

But October isn't always wet, despite its reputation. 2015-18 were all very benign. Likewise 2007-11.

 

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

 cheese Need to re-locate the UK, being at the edge of warming atlantic and prevailing SW wind dragged from the depths of the tropics is a recipe for rain and more rain.

[Summer8906]

 damianslaw So do you think this is the new norm?

I do wonder if the UK is basically finished as a prosperous country if so. Agriculture will be devastated, large tracts of low-lying land could end up under water, and the effect of the constant rain and lack of sunshine on people's moods doesn't bear thinking about. No-one will want to live here if they can help it (though on the positive side i do wonder whether there will, as a result, be pressure from the public to reverse certain political decisions of the past few years to allow people to leave the country more easily...)

I sincerely hope this is not the case. I've never felt so despondent and downbeat at this time of year (other than 2020 for obvious reasons). It's as if there is no spring. There were times in late autumn, when the weather appeared to be easing a little (sadly not for long), when I felt more optimistic!

9 months of dull and wet, and next week, perhaps the dullest and wettest start to April since 1983. This really is a sick joke.

 

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[raz.org.rain]

30 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

So do you think this is the new norm?

People were asking the same question during 2022.

[B87]

We really need a repeat of May 2020, June 2018, July 2022, August 1995.

That would give a 4 month rainfall total of 10.3mm and help us get back towards something resembling normal. I still imagine the year would end up wetter than average, even with that.

Edited March 27 by B87

[raz.org.rain]

 B87 it would be funny if from April onwards we saw an absurdly dry and warm pattern persist into 2025 but 2024 still came out wetter than average because of the first four months.

[B87]

 raz.org.rain It would also help dry out the ground for ideally a monster heatwave lasting all of August and September, and annihilating records in the process. Then a warm, dry and sunny October and November.

The gloom fans have had their fun.

Edited March 27 by B87

[raz.org.rain]

 B87 after this urine take of a several month long stretch of rain, I don't feel bad for wishing for a record hot and dry summer.