Hurricane Rita.

[kold weather]

There does look to be some meso-vorcities in the eye,abit like what Katrina has when she strengthened rapidly upto 175mph,it was only when it held that strength for a while did the proper star like shape in the eye started to really show well.

[kaz]

hi she is a cat 5 now. and what are those things in the eye? and what a fantastic pic.

lol kaz xx

[iceage2]

My sister has recently moved to Sulphur Springs Texas which is around 70 miles from Dallas, does anyone think this area will be hit?

[Mondy]

Off to bed

P.K this the fella you were mentioning? Jeff Flock (pop up's included!)

His latest report is as follows:

Update:

Jeez, this is another scary one. The storm looks incredible on satellite. Indeed once the hurricane hunter aircraft got inside the storm it confirmed winds have reached 165mph which is Cat 5. Yow!

For anyone who wants to see what they're seeing in the target zone, click here to watch the KHOU-TV broadcast. Former National Hurricane Center Director Neal Frank is the head meteorologist there. More from him below.

Where?

The models are begining to cluster smack between Galveston and Corpus Christi. That potentially puts Galveston/Houston in the nasty northeast quadrant of a huge storm. The wind field is very big. The high pressure system that is steering the storm west hasn't cleared out yet. The longer it waits, the farther west the potential track. Would be nice to get it south and west of Corpus where there is less population.

When?

The hit time has pushed back a little bit to Saturday morning for the center of circulation but with a storm this big, effects will come much sooner.

How Bad?

The NHC now says 140mph at landfall. One model forecasts some shear before it hits that could help weaken it. But there is concern the model is incorrectly interpreting the data. Katrina didn't do any weakening at landfall. That was Cat 4.

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[Louby]

There does look to be some meso-vorcities in the eye,abit like what Katrina has when she strengthened rapidly upto 175mph,it was only when it held that strength for a while did the proper star like shape in the eye started to really show well.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry but I have a novice question for you......What does 'meso-vorcities' mean?

[Weatherwatcher]

My sister has recently moved to Sulphur Springs Texas which is around 70 miles from Dallas, does anyone think this area will be hit?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well Dallas is quite a way inland...and I know a lot of evacuees are heading there so you shouldn't see the very worst of the storm. I'd still expect some significant rainfall.

Hurricanes normally weaken when they hit land.

Edited September 21, 2005 by Weatherwatcher

[P.K.]

Off to bed

P.K this the fella you were mentioning? Jeff Flock (pop up's included!)

Not heard of him.

Down to 904hPa now. :blink:

[coldfingers]

Can anyone see what I think are vortices in the eye? I think only seen with majors.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Does anyone know what the blisterlike clouds are towards the edge of Rita? :blink:

[Lincs Observation]

Hr Rita Cat 5 Windspeed 165 expected to fluctate between cat 4 & 5 as it tracks across the gulf, storm surge expected to excede 18 ft , weather advisory in USA are saying that if it maintains cat 5 status when it makes landfall storm surge could excede 25ft and travel up to 10 miles inland. rivaling Hr Camille.

posted a Image of its cat 5 status from NBC6 florida.

[Weatherwatcher]

Does anyone know what the blisterlike clouds are towards the edge of Rita? 

I believe they are particularly strong thunderstorms, possibly tornadic cells.

Edited September 21, 2005 by Weatherwatcher

[coldfingers]

I believe they are particularly strong thunderstorms.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks, I did wonder if that's what they were but I don't know too much and didn't want to look stupid! :blink:

[Lincs Observation]

just been looking at the temps on land where Hr Rita is located in Florida today it was 85oF but in texas it was 96oF, so taking these temps in mind if Rita is sitting in the coolers seas of the florida coast its will track into slightly warmer water of the coast of texas. So i would imagine that as the Hr approches landfall it will possible maintain its Cat 5 status as the warmer waters will feed the storm system.

a simple observation but is there more to the mechanics than this ????

[kold weather]

Hi P.k mate,this is going sub-900mbs no doubt about,prepare for Gilbert to have a fight on its hands for the title,deepest ever hurricane.I believe that its now 5th in terms of deepest systems,behind Katrina by just 2mbs and with it STILL deepening its gotta overtake that,Allen looking like it'll be toppled at 899mbs as well,then you have the big two that haven't been threatened for a long whie,the 1935 storm with pressure of 892mbs and Gilbert at 888mbs,it does give you a good idea as to just how powerful this system could become.

Once pressure finally settles down expect winds to respond,I can see winds probably going upwards of 175mph once winds respond,which they will.

The amazing thing is the speed of this thing,its a replica of the Keys system,it really is and so expect pressure to drop out at about 895-890mbs which is truely amazing,two super powerful hurricanes in the top 5 strongest ever in one month,wow thats unheard of!!!!

In top 5,expect it in the top 3 by the time this nights out at the very least...amazing stuff,we are watching history unfold before our eyes...twice in a month,looks like its really going to go for it and try and get down into the sub-900 range,as I said this eveing,not even Gilberts 88mbs is completely safe althought there still has to be another 15 oddmb drop and considering how it looks at the moment I would think a 895-890mbs is likely low,will it take Allen,pretty sure,but Gilbert,it'll really have to pull out all the stops.

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather

[Weatherwatcher]

just been looking at the temps on land where Hr Rita is located in Florida today it was 85oF but in texas it was 96oF, so taking these temps in mind if Rita is sitting in the coolers seas of the florida coast its will track into slightly warmer water of the coast of texas. So i would imagine that as the Hr approches landfall it will possible maintain its Cat 5 status as the warmer waters will feed the storm system.

a simple observation but is there more to the mechanics than this ????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Think we need to bear in mind the shelf will mean as she appraoches the coast Rita has less and less ocean mass to draw energy from. Being such a powerful system, this could have an impact and dare I say it weaken her slightly, but hey, I;m no expert.

[Lincs Observation]

Think we need to bear in mind the shelf will mean as she appraoches the coast Rita has less and less ocean mass to draw energy from. Being such a powerful system, this could have an impact and dare I say it weaken her slightly, but hey, I;m no expert.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So she may slip back to a cat 4 but be as ferocious as Katrina with a similar storm surge??

[Weatherwatcher]

So she may slip back to a cat 4 but be as ferocious as Katrina with a similar storm surge??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If she sustains cat 5 for long enough the storm surge will be as ferocious, that's the worrying thing. She is moving fairly quickly so there won't be that much time to weaken once she gets close to landfall.

[SMU]

just been looking at the temps on land where Hr Rita is located in Florida today it was 85oF but in texas it was 96oF, so taking these temps in mind if Rita is sitting in the coolers seas of the florida coast its will track into slightly warmer water of the coast of texas. So i would imagine that as the Hr approches landfall it will possible maintain its Cat 5 status as the warmer waters will feed the storm system.

a simple observation but is there more to the mechanics than this ????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

steve murr-

As Rita moves in the mid gulf it moves into a zone called the heat loop-

The heat loop basically desribed is-

'The intensification of tropical cyclones involves a combination of

different favorable atmospheric conditions such as atmospheric trough

interactions and vertical shear, which lead to good outflow conditions

aloft. As a result of this, inflow conditions in the near-surface layer are

enhanced. Clearly, as this process continues over the scale of the storm,

the upper ocean provides the heat to the atmospheric boundary layer and the

deepening process. In this scenario, the upper ocean thermal structure has

been thought to be a parameter that only played a marginal role in tropical

cyclone intensification. However, after a series of events where the sudden

intensification of tropical cyclones occurred when their path passed over

oceanic warm features, it is now being speculated that it could be

otherwise. While the investigation of the role of these rings and eddies is

a topic of research in a very early stage, preliminary results have shown

their importance in the intensification of hurricane Opal.Therefore, the

monitoring of the upper ocean thermal structure has

become a key element in the study of hurricane-ocean interaction with

respect to the prediction of sudden tropical cyclone intensification. These

warm features, mainly anticyclonic rings and eddies shed by the Loop

Current, are characterized by a deepening of several tens of meters of the

isotherms towards their centers and with different temperature and salinity

structure than the surrounding waters. '

So far I would say the intensity of Rita has been underestimated, and with

the addition enhancement of the heat loop from the upper ocean heat content

(UOHC) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) from altimetry then a

storm more powerful than Katrina could be observed in the gulf-

If the storm can intensify to a stage where it retains strength through

Concentric eyewall cycles then record breaking gusts well over 200 MPH

could be observed-

The *very* latest obs show a 11mb drop in 105 mins-

and may outdo- Katrinas 902 MB- even dipping under 900-

Once out of the heat loop Rita will begin to weaken, however she still

could hit land ( track estimates a hit on Port O'Conner and Freeport early

Saturday)

However at this rate even a weak 5 could be on the scale with a storm surge

over 20 feet......

Trust me this is a beast.....

Steve

[Lincs Observation]

Hr Rita Cat 5 Windspeed 165 expected to fluctate between cat 4 & 5 as it tracks across the gulf, storm surge expected to excede 18 ft , weather advisory in USA are saying that if it maintains cat 5 status when it makes landfall storm surge could excede 25ft and travel up to 10 miles inland. rivaling Hr Camille.

posted a Image of its cat 5 status from NBC6 florida.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Cheers steve as the report for current status from CNN above sugests storm surge cold be as much as 25ft thats a frightening statistic makes ya wonder if all these Hurricanes are payback from the man upstairs for americas mistakes around the world :blink:

Sorry just been a cynic!!!!

Edited September 21, 2005 by Luton Observation

[PersianPaladin]

makes ya wonder if all these Hurricanes are payback from the man upstairs for americas mistakes around the world :blink:

Sorry just been a cynic!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I doubt it....

I wouldn't want to be around when the real 'payback' occurs... :lol:

[MAF]

has anyone got any dimensions for Rita? and comparisons i.e Katrina was about the size of England. :blink:

[P.K.]

Hi P.k mate,this is going sub-900mbs no doubt about,prepare for Gilbert to have a fight on its hands for the title,deepest ever hurricane.I believe that its now 5th in terms of deepest systems,behind Katrina by just 2mbs and with it STILL deepening its gotta overtake that,Allen looking like it'll be toppled at 899mbs as well,then you have the big two that haven't been threatened for a long whie,the 1935 storm with pressure of 892mbs and Gilbert at 888mbs,it does give you a good idea as to just how powerful this system could become.

The rate of deepening of this storm has been crazy today, just how low can it go??

[the_white_stuff]

i'll say 885, educated 'guess'. seeing its still got a couple of days until landfall.

[PersianPaladin]

i'll say 885, educated 'guess'. seeing its still got a couple of days until landfall.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Possibly...but i reckon rate of increase should slow in the next 6 hours.

[MAF]

pretty stunning pics on the NOAA site

[kold weather]

Its reminding me of what the Key system did in 1935,that system just bombed stupidly fast as well,I think about 110mbs in 36hrs,amazing deepening,I didn't expect to see that sort of bombing again but looks Rita is going all out,just yesterday night this system had pressure of 980mbs and winds of just 85mph,just 26hrs later it has a pressure of 904mbs,thats a huge drop and up there with the best of them.

The most strikin thing which very few hurricanes can sustain is the rate its gone at,most hurricans will get drop 30mbs in 6hrs then steady,but it has just dropped,and dropped and dropped without showing any signs of leveling out,we will have to wait to see what next recon says but I think we will see it beat Katrina,which I didn't think I'd say just 4 weeks after that monster storms.

If the 2005 season is remmbered for one thing,it would be the sheer power of both Katrina and Rita,nboth in the top 5 hintense hurricanes ever,with Rita seemingly wanting to tak its place i history in the top 3.

Going for 895-890mbs,may just about beat the Keys system if it can keep deepening,even if it does slow down which is sort of inevitable now.

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather