Hurricane Rita.

[snow raven]

pretty stunning pics on the NOAA site

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

impressive - but scary at the same time! I wouldnt want to be in the path or that!!

[MediaHype]

000

WTNT63 KNHC 212146

TCUAT3

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS

FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST

INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888

MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN

1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

Wow

[PersianPaladin]

If it keeps heading westward...it'll weaken and run into slightly cooler waters in the western quarter of the Gulf...but the water is considerably warmer in the north-western area off the coast of Texas. So it may pep-up again if it heads in that direction.

Has somebody said this already? (i bet i'm repeating an obvious point )

Edited September 21, 2005 by PersianPaladin

[TreizeVents]

---> 10mb drop in 1 hour -- that is a record.

[Weatherwatcher]

"Max Mayfield just said on KTRK 899mb and that the dropsonde had gone crazy because the winds were "just that strong"."

That's what I've heard guys from an American message board.

[Weatherwatcher]

668

WTNT63 KNHC 212351

TCUAT3

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS

FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT

MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY

DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN

LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...

WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF

PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND

INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB

AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Roger J Smith]

Rita has grown into as strong a storm as Katrina or Camille, and has from its very first stages been on a very consistent forward track. This regularity of forward motion is always associated with major landfalling hurricanes. From the research I have been doing on hurricanes for many years, I believe that ultimately the cause of such storms can be found in some kind of disturbance in solar system magnetic field sectors that link the Sun to the large outer planets. When planets Mercury or Venus move through these strong fields they send a strong disturbance outward past the earth and then out towards the outer planets. You can see in this theory that the "eye" would be the signature of the small inner planet moving through the field sector. In this case, Mercury is moving between Jupiter and the Sun. About 24 days ago, Mercury was moving between Saturn and the Sun.

Although this is unpublished research, I can say that it is not an entirely maverick idea -- various other researchers are looking at connections between solar output, field sectors, and terrestrial weather.

This theory would help to explain the rather mysterious aspect of the regularity of forward motion of hurricanes which can be seen from one year to another, the rather obvious way that they follow the curved structures of the earth's magnetic field, and would point to some periodicities in hurricane frequency.

At the same time, there are many unanswered questions in this line of investigation, so it's probably fair to say that the theory is in a developmental stage.

By the way, I have CNN on live here and they were just saying that the new update had come in for Rita, the central pressure had fallen to 898 mb, and there is even a suggestion of further strengthening. There has been talk of wind gusts near 200-220 mph in the eyewall of this storm now. You may have noticed this, temperatures along the Gulf coast and inland into Texas have been at record high levels near 38-40C except in the sea breeze zone, and so this storm has a monstrous potential to draw upon as it approaches land. I don't even think that the near-shore shallow water factor will mean anything because this water has been superheated by land breezes all day today, the Galveston buoy is reporting water temps near 30C.

Expect a landfall 30-60 miles southwest of Galveston near Freeport TX, perhaps as far west as Port O'Connor, with towns such as Bay City right in the firing line. On this course, the Galveston and Houston areas with all of their oil refining facilities will be very close to the worst forward section winds and storm surge. A direct hit between Freetown and Galveston would be the worst case scenario but anything east of Port O'Connor would probably mean a $10-billion plus hit on the American economy. You have to ask yourself, what are the chances of two cat-5 hurricanes in one season, even within 30 days and virtually over the same spot? Not much more than 1 in 500, I would speculate.

[Weatherwatcher]

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...

...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN

ON RECORD...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT

MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND

ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT

MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE

WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST

OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA

IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES.

PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 898 MB...26.55 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE

THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC

BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND

LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE

AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH

LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[Weatherwatcher]

Although this is unpublished research, I can say that it is not an entirely maverick idea -- various other researchers are looking at connections between solar output, field sectors, and terrestrial weather.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have read briefly about solar activity having influence on our climate - eg solar flares, but I am a novice. However, I do believe that this science is definitely going to be a big part of our future climate research and will become more mainstream as intelligence grows.

Talking of the chances of two Bahamas majors in a month, perhaps we will see a Bahamas season regularly, as we see the Cape Verde season.

Edited September 22, 2005 by Weatherwatcher

[MAF]

Rita has grown into as strong a storm as Katrina or Camille, and has from its very first stages been on a very consistent forward track. This regularity of forward motion is always associated with major landfalling hurricanes. .........................

By the way, I have CNN on live here and they were just saying that the new update had come in for Rita, the central pressure had fallen to 898 mb, and there is even a suggestion of further strengthening. There has been talk of wind gusts near 200-220 mph in the eyewall of this storm now. You may have noticed this, temperatures along the Gulf coast and inland into Texas have been at record high levels near 38-40C except in the sea breeze zone, and so this storm has a monstrous potential to draw upon as it approaches land. I don't even think that the near-shore shallow water factor will mean anything because this water has been superheated by land breezes all day today, the Galveston buoy is reporting water temps near 30C.

Expect a landfall 30-60 miles southwest of Galveston near Freeport TX, perhaps as far west as Port O'Connor, with towns such as Bay City right in the firing line. On this course, the Galveston and Houston areas with all of their oil refining facilities will be very close to the worst forward section winds and storm surge. A direct hit between Freetown and Galveston would be the worst case scenario but anything east of Port O'Connor would probably mean a $10-billion plus hit on the American economy. You have to ask yourself, what are the chances of two cat-5 hurricanes in one season, even within 30 days and virtually over the same spot? Not much more than 1 in 500, I would speculate.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well thats very interesting research Roger, i can see this is a subject close to your heart. i notice your neck of the woods is getting colder and there is even snow in some parts of canada. is that usual for this time of year.

[I can't believe it's not better]

I remember I watched the day after tomorrow with my girlfriend and I found it awesome because I knew that maybe just maybe the weather could get real nasty some time soon.She thought it was pure fiction,which of course it was though all us weatherbuffs also know that weather is a strange phenomenon!

George W you have been warned!! Take globalwarming seriously or we all in trouble

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How did you watch the day after tomorrow? Have you got a link for that? (lol).

[I can't believe it's not better]

I agree PW. In a sense she is maybe peaking now and (within 48 hours) belly out thus reducing her power. Again, we just need to wait.

Still concerned with the slight WNW movement. As KW says, if EWR (eyewall replacement) does soon take place how much off a wobble will that put her off course (or on course - whichever you prefer)!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wait?..wh!...What sort of forecasting is all this wait and see policy? (Lol obviously).

[I can't believe it's not better]

What doyou rekon AmericanIceman?

[AmericanIceman]

What doyou rekon AmericanIceman?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

About what?

[I can't believe it's not better]

About what?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

All this stuff>

[I can't believe it's not better]

Excuse me everyone.

[AmericanIceman]

All this stuff>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, I'm in awe and sorrow. I feel bad for all the folks it's gonna affect, and even know a few of em, that live just south of east Houston. I've talked to part of them, and they're in Austin now. But, I still don't know about the other people I know there, and have no real way of contacting them. So, I just hope they stay safe. Overall though, this thing is quite breath taking. It's amazing how something so....mystifying....can be so cruel. God speed to Texas!

[I can't believe it's not better]

What stuff?

[I can't believe it's not better]

That was what I've been thinking today. Some of the posts this evening seem more optimistic than earlier today.

[AmericanIceman]

That was what I've been thinking today.  Some of the posts this evening seem more optimistic than earlier today.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What do you mean, exactly?

[AmericanIceman]

175 MPH Winds...

897 mb pressure...

Supposed to get stonger still...

Track moved north just south of Galveston Bay..

Worst possible thing that could happen.

[AmericanIceman]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 220241

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL

GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST

FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING

MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY

MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE

HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE

LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST

OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE

WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...

915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES...

1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.

THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF

PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND

LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE

AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE

WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD

EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE

WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS

OF 2 TO 24 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES

INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE

POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[MediaHype]

It is simply quite awe inspiring but frightening for the folks in this beasts path

Quite frightening

Look at the GOES WV 3 15 sat image

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/EVENTS/EG64.JPG

[gobbyash]

I've been watching the storm grow from this weather site. Hope it's not been posted already.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

regards

gobbyash

[Arrows]

Looks very deadly. On fox this morning a pilot who flew into the middle shew photos of what she looked like from the middle. On photo looked like a big bowl of cloud. Very cool. I think it will be border line cat 3/4 when it makes landfall