Waiting For Wilma!

[Mondy]

Ok! After sifting through the Rita thread for ages! finally found live feeds again for those of you at work or who don't have Sat TV. There is nothing showing at the moment, so pointless clicking on the link, but another definite boomark for the future. Feeds

Boro dave, i'd seriously consider checking with your travel agent...

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[smich]

---

EDIT I'm speechless :o ------------

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

.........me too!

Unbelievable! :huh:

Can't wait for the sun to come up in that part of the world!

And I can't wait to see some pics of that eye taken by recon...

Smich

[Gray-Wolf]

My God....

When I went to bed last night it was category one....

Now it is category 4.... soon to be 5....

If it happens to take a more northerly track over the Tampa/Orlando region I am screwed...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

She is a cat 5!! they added an extra update, 175mph winds!!

I need some guidance here. I have it in my head that the 'stronger' a Hurricane gets the less it 'heeds' and steering currents/pressure gradients.......did I dream it?

She wasn't supposed to do this 'till after the channel!!! I thought she'd slip through it later today (the channel) and 'blossom' in the Gulf and now she won't even fit through the bloody channel!!!!!

I think I need a rethink.........

If anyone can help with the steering Question I'd be very appreciative, ta :huh:

[Mondy]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION: http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KTBW.html

Tbh GW, i'm checking out info regarding old Gilbert - much the same set up...might help :huh:

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

At 9am (our time) Recon reported 166kts Max flt level wind on both "sides" of the eye. Works out at over 190mph :o Appears they're also having trouble getting a dropsonde into the eye to measure the latest pressure :huh:

[Joneseye]

It is interesting that the BBC haven't really picked up this yet.

Reuters have an interesting article:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle....ATHER-WILMA.xml

What a truly awesome beast she has become in such a short space of time....

[Gray-Wolf]

At 9am (our time) Recon reported 166kts Max flt level wind on both "sides" of the eye. Works out at over 190mph :o Appears they're also having trouble getting a dropsonde into the eye to measure the latest pressure :huh:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Now that is ridiculous! what is the max constant wind speed recorded for a hurricane (do they need a cat 6? :o ) She's giving us a nice show but she'd better calm down a bit before Sat/Sun landfall eh? :o

[Mondy]

Thing is, Yucatan Peninsula and W.Cuba are gonna get a pounding soon with those wind speeds..whose to say she won't make landfall twice?? :huh:

[Mondy]

Jeezus H: 884mb :huh:

URNT12 KNHC 190835

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 19/08:00:30Z

B. 17 deg 03 min N

082 deg 20 min W

C. 700 mb 2082 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 320 deg 166 kt

G. 221 deg 003 nm

H. 884 mb

I. 10 C/ 3073 m

J. 24 C/ 3043 m

K. 10 C/ NA

L. CLOSEDM. C4

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 0724A Wilma OB 16

MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z

Now the strongest Atlantic hurricane recorded..history making infront of our eyes.

Gilbert was 888mb

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[Joneseye]

Thing is, Yucatan Peninsula and W.Cuba are gonna get a pounding soon with those wind speeds..whose to say she won't make landfall twice?? :huh:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hope not (for selfish reasons) as I am due to fly out to Cancun on the 31st October. I may have to have a chat to the travel agent as well...

[londonsnow]

bloody hell. i went to bed when she was a cat2, now a cat 5?????!!! how on earth.....?

[Gray-Wolf]

Thing is, Yucatan Peninsula and W.Cuba are gonna get a pounding soon with those wind speeds..whose to say she won't make landfall twice?? :huh:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

or three times if she survives her tangle with Florida and passes out the other side (SC/NC). I'm hoping that both Cuba and Yukatan are sparesly populated where she 'brushes past' them but we all know what S. Florida is like so she'd better not 'do a katrina' and come in as a strong Cat. 4. over there:(

I'm sure by tonight we'll have a truer picture of her track for later in the week but if she remains big then she'll run a lot of water in front of her no matter where she's goin'.

EDIT the 'new' 5 day track doesn't have her losing hurricane strength as she passes over Florida at all. I suppose it's too flat and 'thin' to mess with things too much.

Edited October 19, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[londonsnow]

Jeezus H:  884mb :huh:

URNT12 KNHC 190835

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 19/08:00:30Z

B. 17 deg 03 min N

082 deg 20 min W

C. 700 mb 2082 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 320 deg 166 kt

G. 221 deg 003 nm

H. 884 mb

I. 10 C/ 3073 m

J. 24 C/ 3043 m

K. 10 C/ NA

L. CLOSEDM. C4

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 0724A Wilma OB 16

MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z

Now the strongest Atlantic hurricane recorded..history making infront of our eyes.

Gilbert was 888mb

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

that is extraordinary

[Mondy]

15mb to go for the all time record - will she do it?

Absolutely crazy this....

[Mondy]

EDIT the 'new' 5 day track doesn't have her losing hurricane strength as she passes over Florida at all. I suppose it's too flat and 'thin' to mess with things too much.

Even before that, it's deep, warm water all the way until Friday.

Defo phone your travel agent, Jonseye. I'm certainly not putting the "frightners" up you, but will any aircraft be able to land in the next 12-24hrs in Cancun or W.Cuba..?

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Latest discussion:

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE

...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB

AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.

UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELIED AN

EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.

THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN

OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS

PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC

BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED

WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL

BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND

DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS

PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

[Roo]

Has anyone got an image of the track?

[Mondy]

[SnowBear]

Anyone flying out to the Gulf anytime soon, please check and stay in contact with your Travel agents now, dont leave it any longer. At this rate we could be looking at a possible catastrophic landfall when Wilma hits, dont leave anything to chance.

She has bombed more than I expected for sure, I thought maybe a strong Cat 4 at some point, but, she has sat there for many days now with wonderfully warm waters to draw on so maybe we shouldnt be so surprised, and the area she can draw on has been increasing each day the larger she gets.

My thoughts on track stay the same as my previous posts.

[Roo]

Looks like Bermuda could be in deep doo doo too.... :huh:

[smich]

884mb!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Flipping nora!

Three landfalls is a distinct possibility - earlier in this thread (last night) Steve Murr posted his thoughts on this. It seems quite likely that Wilma will survive the traverse of the Florida peninsula and will then head up the North East coast.

Another record to enquire about: what's the longest surviving Hurricane? Some form quite close (relatively speaking ) to Africa and cross the Atlantic, so they must last quite a long time?

Smich

[Gray-Wolf]

At this rate the Safir-Simpson is gonna have to turn into the Fujita :lol:

[Mondy]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. :lol:

[Hemlock]

Safir-Simpson is gonna have to turn into the Fujita :lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't Old El Paso make those?

[turna]

incredible..... but how strong will it be when it makes landfall. it will hit cooler waters in the gulf but how much will it weaken.. Any idea where Alpha is going to spring up..