Waiting For Wilma!

[crimsone]

Does anyone know why the images between 1715 and 1915 are missing from the loop?

[Mondy]

Jeez...963mb now..falling very rapidly as the Shipping Forecast would say...

[smich]

The latest loop is showing a definate eyewall formation - rapid intensification now...

nite-nite storm watchers :unsure:

Smich

[SMU]

Jeez...963mb now..falling very rapidly as the Shipping Forecast would say...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yep shes gonna bomb...

Rapid deepening!!VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

Storm Name: WILMA (24L)

Mission Number: 05

Flight ID: AF302

Observation Number: 13 Google Maps Vortex Position -- Click Here

Time: 21:42:20Z

Latitude: 16.6°N

Longitude: 81.5°W

Location: 216 mi NE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua

Minimum height at 850 mb 1112 m

Est. Surface Winds Observed: 63 mph

Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 59 mi NE (34°)

Maximum flight level wind: ESE (111°) @ 94 mph

Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 10 mi NNE (24°)

Sea level pressure: 963 mb

Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 63°F at 5000 feet

Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 68°F at 5007 feet

Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 68°F

Eye character: CLOSED

Eye shape: Circular

Eye diameter: 8 mi

Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 850 mb

Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm

MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z

My feelings on this one I will stick to as all through, skim western Cuba > Ten Thousand Islands > Across FL > West Palm Beach > into the Atlantic > skimming up the Eastern Seaboard probably catching NC/VA then....as in Steve's posting re: Cape Cod/Maine/Nova Scotia, very possible but that is a long way off yet. If it is Cat 3 at landfall in FL, I doubt it will lose hurricane strength before West Palm Beach. A possible hurricane that make 3 landfalls? Time will tell

The location of The hurricane in the NE will be all to do with the phasing of the Wilma & the pacific Trough-

An entire Phase will pull it West- a Weak partial phase will keep it east- Nova ish-

Watch the Models ( GDFL,GFS, ECM- to see how the phasing comes in after landfall)

S

Edited October 18, 2005 by Steve Murr

[Mondy]

Rapidly intensifying as you say Steve.

Pressure fallen 7mb in 2 hours (rita fell 30mb in 4 hours if i remember correctly), the eye is beginning to show on Infra Red and water vapour loops.

it's weird to see a hurricane with massive outer bands, yet a very small eye :unsure:

infra red (IR)

Water vapour (VW)

Edited October 18, 2005 by Mondy

[londonsnow]

wow, wilma's really getting going isnt she. rapid intensification. i guess her path will be crucial to what happens next but as everyone suggests we have at least a cat 3 on our hands at some point over the next few days. where can i get sst's for wilma's current postion anyone? cheers LS

[SnowBear]

[Mondy]

SST:

[londonsnow]

SST:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

cheers mondy!

[londonsnow]

ps. shouldnt we change the name of this thread. we arent waiting anymore....!

[Mondy]

At 963mb's i find it hard to believe she's still a cat 1!!

Wilma's winds though are still not cat 1 material..weird...i reckon when she fully swirls round herself, then the whole numerical values change ie Cat 3 or 4

Update to cat 2 soon surely :unsure:

[crimsone]

well, shees sealed up the hole in the NE now. coincidence that they eye formed at the same time?

I'd agree that it should be cat 2 soon personally, but the NHC are now saying major hurricane in a day or two whereas they were saying a day.

I still think it'll happen rapidly.

[SMU]

well, shees sealed up the hole in the NE now. coincidence that they eye formed at the same time?

I'd agree that it should be cat 2 soon personally, but the NHC are now saying major hurricane in a day or two whereas they were saying a day.

I still think it'll happen rapidly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nogaps 18z

This is the worst case scenario for the North East a full phase of the pacific trough and wilma

Steve

Edited October 18, 2005 by Steve Murr

[Mondy]

Totally respect your posts, steve, but Wilma's not even reached the GoM yet -

[crimsone]

oops. I meant the hole in the NW of her.

Edited October 18, 2005 by crimsone

[Snow Queen one]

May i suggest the thread be renamed Watching Wilma :unsure:

[SMU]

Totally respect your posts, steve, but Wilma's not even reached the GoM yet -

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Lol getting carried away- but Im More interested in the NE than the Panhandle...

~

We pretty much know intensification will bring her to Cat 4 or thereabouts- with a probable 2 or 3 Landfall....

If she fully phases into The Ne with current jet plots she will come our way -

S

[londonsnow]

May i suggest the thread be renamed Watching Wilma   :unsure:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

or Whirlwind Wilma

[crimsone]

May i suggest the thread be renamed Watching Wilma   :unsure:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

he he, I don't know. seems to me that we're still waiting for her

First to develop, then to become a hurricane, then for an eye to form, and now we're waiting for Cat 2!

She's really keeping us hanging on here!

[SMU]

he he, I don't know. seems to me that we're still waiting for her

First to develop, then to become a hurricane, then for an eye to form, and now we're waiting for Cat 2!

She's really keeping us hanging on here!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

gusting 113MPH at the surface from latest recon=

Cat 2 status TBC soon....

Pressure is now 954 mb! Very rapid deepening.

000

URNT12 KNHC 182328

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 18/23:09:50Z

B. 16 deg 36 min N

081 deg 41 min W

C. 850 mb 1037 m

D. 45 kt

E. 178 deg 049 nm

F. 257 deg 080 kt

G. 167 deg 007 nm

H. 954 mb

I. 18 C/ 1518 m

J. 22 C/ 1524 m

K. 20 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C8

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21

MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z

MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10

VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER

NGT 16 mb drop in 3 hours.... Sub 900 anyone Cat 5... :unsure:

S

Edited October 18, 2005 by Steve Murr

[Mondy]

Cat5 is something i thought about, but daren't post just yet!!

:unsure:

Pressure drop of 9 mb in less than 90 minutes... very impressive

[crimsone]

wow! I Know I said I thought there'd be a very sudden strengthening when it all closed around and got sorted, but this is rediculous! lol (and what a guess it was! lmao)

if it keeps dropping like this, it'll be lifting the sea itself through the eye in a few days! (ok, an exaggeration I admit!)

heh! with all theses westward wobbles (see nhc advisory 13A), maybe she'll suprise us all and turn wst at the peninsula? (unlikely, but it kinda seems like this storms general attitude)

Edited October 18, 2005 by crimsone

[Cassarah]

Cat5 is something i thought about, but daren't post just yet!!

:unsure:    

Pressure drop of 9 mb in less than 90 minutes... very impressive

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Mondy, I'm new here, but was wondering if you might know what hurricane holds the record for rapid intensification.

[londonsnow]

that's pretty amazing. she'll be a cat 2 within minutes

[crimsone]

She IS a cat 2 :unsure:

See 13a

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/182341.shtml