Waiting For Wilma!

[matmilne]

yep, wilma does seem to be getting her act together now. i reckon we'll get a cat 4 out of this one if she slips into the gulf

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well here's wonderful willma. and can i just say it's been a pleasure partaking in this historic event with you all.

looks like the yuk might get her, but there's a deffinite possibility of gom penetration also so we'll see what happens but whatever will happen will happen within the next 96 hours.

keep yer eyes glued to the satelite feeds. On future developments alpha is a definite possibility this year. There's another 2 tropical waves out in the atlantic on their way in.

[Mondy]

Check this run out..Florida bound?? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...lp_s_loop.shtml

[londonsnow]

well here's wonderful willma.  and can i just say it's been a pleasure partaking in this historic event with you all.

looks like the yuk might get her, but there's a deffinite possibility of gom penetration also so we'll see what happens but whatever will happen will happen within the next 96 hours.

keep yer eyes glued to the satelite feeds.  On future developments alpha is a definite possibility this year.  There's another 2 tropical waves out in the atlantic on their way in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yes, alpha and beta look like they're on their way

[Hurricane Debby]

There are no major changes to the forecast for Wilma but it does look like it will take the better part of a week before we know the final end-game of this latest storm. The NHC forecast calls for Wilma to become a hurricane and to be near cat-3 intensity by the weekend. The track has changed little and shows a threat to the Yucatan Peninsula. Aftrwards, most long range models indicate a turn towards the north and east towards Florida. This seems reasonable considering the time of year we are in. I would not expect Wilma to threaten Texas, Louisiana or Mississipii at this point- but people in those areas should not completely ignore it. This is basically going to be a long and drawn out event with plenty of time to monitor the intensity and track changes as they evolve. I will post regular updates concerning Wilma here all week long- and have plans to travel to Florida for observations and reporting should Wilma indeed threaten the Sunshine State. My next update will be around 5pm ET today.

(Courtesy Hurricane Track)

[Mondy]

No real change in the 2pm(EDT) Bulletin, except pressure down to 997mb.

[Gray-Wolf]

On the Alpha ,Beta, Delta front there seems to be a mass of disturbance heading in. It is still way off and so a lot can happen but the rapid convection between 4 and 9n,30 and 40w probably needs watching (I think). By the time Wilma is organised and in the Gulf as a Cat 3 they should be approaching the Windwards (Thurs?).

Anyhow, back to tonights entertainment.....I think we've been watching her wobble around in an anticlockwise (as if around a small LP) circle as she gains strength and forms, once she's completed this circle cycle (teehee) I think she will head out into the Gulf and though they have pushed her further west and over the edge of Yukatan on the latest models I still think she'll pass through the channel and 'explode' as she exits up to a cat3/4 as Rita did after passing through the Florida Straights. What d'ya think?

[crimsone]

with these waves coming in, I sincerely hope that Wilma will have drawn some of the strength out of the waters by the time they get there and that they follow in wilmas rough path and form only tropical storms as a result before the sea temps normalise again.

[Hurricane Debby]

Spot Wilma !!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GPIR.JPG

[smich]

On the Alpha ,Beta, Delta front there seems to be a mass of disturbance heading in. It is still way off and so a lot can happen but the rapid convection between 4 and 9n,30 and 40w probably needs watching (I think). By the time Wilma is organised and in the Gulf as a Cat 3 they should be approaching the Windwards (Thurs?).

Anyhow, back to tonights entertainment.....I think we've been watching her wobble around in an anticlockwise (as if around a small LP) circle as she gains strength and forms, once she's completed this circle cycle (teehee) I think she will head out into the Gulf and though they have pushed her further west and over the edge of Yukatan on the latest models I still think she'll pass through the channel and 'explode' as she exits up to a cat3/4 as Rita did after passing through the Florida Straights. What d'ya think?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm with you on this one GW - and kold weather has been adding his vote to this outcome. As for the T/waves on their way, I posted a sat pic of Africa just over a week ago and wondered if that massive low of last week would be gone when they arrived...

btw, I miss your using "quotation marks". Please keep using them - I'm terrible for using hyphens, and want to keep Net-weather a "punctuation nation"

Smich

[crimsone]

Spot Wilma !!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GPIR.JPG

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Spot wilma? America isn't on that map. You can just about see the tip of Alaska in the top right. The hurricane you can see in the top left is in fact a typhoon that's dancing with the coast of Japan

It's a picture of the pacific.

As for the intermediate advisory, "MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... "

She's growing fast people!

Edited October 17, 2005 by crimsone

[Hurricane Debby]

Just knew I was going to be wrong there ! Sorry Doh !

Thanks for pointing out what it was - shame its now Wilma but pretty all the same and a fantastic image - I was just so blown away with the pic (no pun intended) and I think I got over excited.

[crimsone]

shame its now Wilma but pretty all the same and a fantastic image

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's a very impressive image Thanks for posting it regardless of what it is.

[Gray-Wolf]

btw, I miss your using "quotation marks". Please keep using them - I'm terrible for using hyphens, and want to keep Net-weather a "punctuation nation" 

Smich

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry smich, I must just be 'on one'.

[Mondy]

All forecast models are in agreement now! What a change since earlier this afternoon.

Wilma..looking much more like a forming hurricane.

[Gray-Wolf]

If that mass of rapid convection over Jamaica and to the west of Jamaica (south of east Cuba) gets drawn into her it'll fill in the 'northern portion' and then she will look impressive!!! Waiting for the 'eye' to form now.......

Edited October 17, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

Just wondering if the eye is forming on the last frame of the IR loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/AVN_loop.html

[Mondy]

Vortex data now says pressure down to 989? Falling quite a bit today..

[smich]

Just wondering if the eye is forming on the last frame of the IR loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/AVN_loop.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A bit early yet I reckon, Mondy. This one has been developing in slo-mo and a Hurricane is about 36hrs away yet. Plus, there's no eye-wall atall to the North.

Just looking at that pic you just posted - that hook of convection is mighty impressive...

Smich

[crimsone]

Vortex data now says pressure down to 989? Falling quite a bit today..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thats quite a sharp drop since the last (intermediate) advisory from the NHC about 3 hours ago, which posted it at 997!

Methinks shes about to make her mind up and get serious

Edited October 17, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

A bit early yet I reckon, Mondy

Sorry, was getting a bit carried away and my mind is picturing the scene in say 24 hours

EDIT: Vortex data:URNT12 KNHC 172024

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 17/20:05:10Z

B. 15 deg 50 min N

079 deg 52 min W

C. 850 mb 1342 m

D. 35 kt

E. 318 deg 020 nm

F. 034 deg 038 kt

G. 318 deg 019 nm

H. 989 mbI. 17 C/ 1525 m

J. 19 C/ 1524 m

K. 19 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0324A WILMA OB 10

MAX FL WIND 38 KT NW QUAD 19:59:10 Z

GOOD BANDING ON RADAR

Edited October 17, 2005 by Mondy

[smich]

Sorry, was getting a bit carried away and my mind is picturing the scene in say 24 hours

EDIT: Vortex data:URNT12 KNHC 172024

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 17/20:05:10Z

B. 15 deg 50 min N

  079 deg 52 min W

C. 850 mb 1342 m

D. 35  kt

E. 318 deg 020 nm

F. 034 deg 038 kt

G. 318 deg 019 nm

H.        989  mbI.  17 C/ 1525 m

J.  19 C/ 1524 m

K.  19 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 2  nm

P. AF304 0324A WILMA        OB 10

MAX FL WIND 38 KT NW QUAD 19:59:10 Z

GOOD BANDING ON RADAR

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Tell you what mate - it's easy to get excited - looking at the visible loop, the eye you mentioned looks like it was another massive burst of convection, but look at the big picture:

Big influence

This baby is dominating the weather for thousands of miles around her. The entire image seems to be spinning around the centre!

Smich

[Hurricane Debby]

Latest from Hurricane Track

The latest info from the NHC suggests that Wilma may indeed become yet another category three hurricane. So far, there are no indications from the NHC that Wilma will get much stronger than that- let's hope not. The track forecast is beginning to look ominous for southwest Florida. After a trek through the Yucatan Channel, Wilma is forecast to hook to the northeast and head for SW Florida. This is very serious because the storm surge potential along that portion of the coast is enormous. If Wilma grows in to a large hurricane, it could be even worse- since a larger hurricane typically produces a larger storm surge. While it is not time to panic, I would suggest that people along the west coast of Florida begin seriously thinking about their plans to evacuate and/or prepare for this potential hurricane threat. The timing is tricky, but it looks like a late-weekend landfall- or perhaps early on Monday. The advantage here is that you will have time to prepare. That window of opportunity will close though before you know it. So get ready- it looks like Florida will have to endure yet another hurricane. I am planning on heading to Florida Wednesday morning.

[Mondy]

Wow! Smich..

If/when the north wraps around soon, should be awesome!

[Hurricane Debby]

Wow fantastic ! I was just off to bed as well ! Think I may hang around a little longer. So excited !

[crimsone]

Wow! Smich..

If/when the north wraps around soon, should be awesome!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's one hell of a powerful storm! Ok, maybe it's only a TS, but the total amount of energy that must be in the thing to dominate the area like that is truly breathtaking!