Waiting For Wilma!

[londonsnow]

he he. I meant max potential temperature on those boundries. (late night is getting the better of me I think. lol)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

me too. i shall make my way to the sack methinks. and dream of wilma.....wasnt she a character in the flintstones?

[Mondy]

GFDL model brings 98L (Wilma) a Cat 5 with pressure dropping to 910mb. It also drifts the system WSW towards Honduras, though it keeps it offshore through 126 hours and starts to nudge it more to the NW at the end of the forecast period :blink:

[kold weather]

Just a quick note about those MPI charts,they show how low a system can go in perfect condtions.Problem is most systems never reach 100%,most not even 80%(although Katrina most likely did)ad so they only reach a certain percent of thier MPI before a eyewall change will take place which weaekens a systems,thats why you'll rarely see a storm that can keep getting stronger then more then 24hrs in good condtions as it would quickly reach its max MPI% it can.In better atmospheric condtions it can reach a higher percent of its MPI.

Anyway I'm a little suprised that this system isn't TD24 to be honest,its got a closed low with it and winds aren't a issue really,its got a large amount of convection and it looks like a TD as well. The seas around this thing are at the highes tin the atlantic basin right now close to 29C and so thats not a problem and atmospheric condtions are certainly good enough for a good system to form,whether it'll be as strong as GFDL predicts I'm not so sure,but it would have a shot at being a major no doubt providing it doesn't move to fast.It's currently over Jamaica and will be for another 6-12hrs but once off I would have though that it would be able to feed from the hotter waters pretty quickly.

Track is very hard in these phases.At this time of year its not uncommon to see such a strom eventually push directly northwards as troughs dig in across the U.S causing a weakness that these tropical cyclones love to go towards.I'd have thought this will happen at least somepoint in this systems future and so I think a landfall in the U.S at some point is most favored ,the question is what area,I do fear for anothe rArlene type track evntually starting,which would take this system fairly close to New Orlenas,although I actually think that if a US landfall does occur,the same sort of area that got hit by Rita is most at risk,but anywhere facing the Gulf of mexico is at risk for now anyway.

[boro_dave]

I am taking my family to Orlando, Florida next thursday for a 2 week holiday, is there much chance that this could come our way?

And if it does, will we just be catching the edge of it, or is there and chance that we could get a direct hit?

[SnowBear]

I am taking my family to Orlando, Florida next thursday for a 2 week holiday, is there much chance that this could come our way?

And if it does, will we just be catching the edge of it, or is there and chance that we could get a direct hit?

Too early to say boro_dave, just keep close watch on this thread and NOAA National Hurricane Centre pages available here for the next 24/48 hours. The system is pretty much stationary at the moment over Jamaica.

Edited October 15, 2005 by SnowBear

[Mondy]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA IS PRODUCING

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN

CUBA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS JAMAICA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS

GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE

THAT IT HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONDITIONS

APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD

FORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY

WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA...THE

CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...

SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE

SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

[londonsnow]

I am taking my family to Orlando, Florida next thursday for a 2 week holiday, is there much chance that this could come our way?

And if it does, will we just be catching the edge of it, or is there and chance that we could get a direct hit?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

impossible to say at present. odds are massively against a direct hit if you consider that anywhere on the gulf coast could get a direct hit, ie the orlando coastline represents a minor fraction of the gulf coastline as a whole. furthermore wilma has not yet even been classified as a TD so lets not jump the gun

[Gray-Wolf]

So whats with the vigorous circulation at 19n,59w? it doesn't seem to have any associated convection ....yet....but it is spinning away to the WNW. Could this pick up more convection as it enters the Gulf proper?

The NOAA reports on the Jamaican system seem to be a little dated as you can see structures now on the visible sat. (outer banding?) :blink:

[Mondy]

Wind sheer map..what do you think? Wilma by tea-time?

Also, UKM takes the system ever near to the GoM.

Edited October 15, 2005 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

My fear for her (should she form) is that she'll pass through the Yukatan staights and then 'curve' northwards towards Texas/Mississippi. The direction would drive a storm surge directly at the US Gulf coast which could do without any more drama this year!!!

EDIT The circulation I mentioned earlier looks to be heading for Peurto Rico and is starting to draw in cloud on its SE flank.

Edited October 15, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

From http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/151107.shtml?

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SHEARING CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREA FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 17N58W LOW CENTER WHICH IS ABOUT 20060 NM

EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

Edited October 15, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

GFDL model (in the last few frames)now takes 98L (Wilma) north!

GFDL has been pretty reliable throughout the season

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the satelite pictures, a Tropical Depression has clearly formed, i am going to support the UKMO track on this one which shows the system moving slowly westward but curving northward to go through the Yukatan Straight qwith a probale hit to the west New Orleans as a category 5 hurricane due to near perfect conditions, i expect a category 1 hurricane by monday night with landfall during thursday morning.

Here is the UKMO model.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

[Mondy]

Yeah, the UKM model is an interesting one along with GFDL.

Definite outer-banding now. IMO, this is gonna be a big system soon

[londonsnow]

Looking at the satelite pictures, a Tropical Depression has clearly formed, i am going to support the UKMO track on this one which shows the system moving slowly westward but curving northward to go through the Yukatan Straight qwith a probale hit to the west New Orleans as a category 5 hurricane due to near perfect conditions, i expect a category 1 hurricane by monday night with landfall during thursday morning.

Here is the UKMO model.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yeah she's (wilma's) clearly got her act together. next advisory will flag her up as a TD.

[Mondy]

No recon data - looks as though the NHC will try and play this down for the time being.

[crimsone]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/150925.shtml

Well, it's factually correct from their point of view. Having done no recon yet, it does appear to be a tropical depression forming (I must admit, it looks to me like one's already formed, though I'm hardly an authority)

[londonsnow]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/150925.shtml

Well, it's factually correct from their point of view. Having done no recon yet, it does appear to be a tropical depression forming (I must admit, it looks to me like one's already formed, though I'm hardly an authority)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'm no authority either, but it really does look like we have a wilma on our hands

[Mondy]

Recon today after all..it did say if need be! I jumped the gun

TWO discussion:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a tropical

depression appears to be developing in the western Caribbean Sea

just west of Jamaica. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is

scheduled to be in the area this afternoon to determine if a

tropical depression has formed. This system is accompanied by a

large area of squalls which is already affecting Jamaica and the

adjacent waters. All indications are that this system will move

very slowly toward the west over the warm waters bewteen Jamaica

and the Cayman Islands during the next few days...and could become

a tropical storm or even a hurricane . Interests in Jamaica...Cuba

...The Cayman Islands...and the remainder of the northwestern

Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of this

developing weather system.

Jamaican weather service: http://www.metservice.gov.jm/forecast.asp

Edited October 15, 2005 by Mondy

[kold weather]

Hi Mondy,I believe recon isn't going in till later this eveing,not quite sure of the time but sometime this eveing for us and it will more then likely be upgraded I reckon to a TD with 30kts,Buoy data would seem to strongly suggest a presance of a closed circulation is indeed present with this system or at least close and convection is definatly good enough and there is some banding taking place as has been noted by some other members is very good as well.

NHC will no doubt wait till recon has gone in and confirmed it as a TD before upgrading it,but I wouldn't be amazingly suprsied if this thing already has 35-40kt winds in some of those massive convective blow-ups that are occuring.

Regardless if whether it gets upgraded in 6 or 12hrs,it will soon due to very favorable atmoshperic condtions and decent SST's with the highest heat content in the atlantic basing at present the area is prime,esp as it's had no system since Emily and that was in July and the water is stil lvery hot and this area tends to spawn the strongest October and November hurricanes,infact I believe Mitch was a cat-5 over these waters and infact reached 180mph,even higher winds then Katrina and Rita and pressure slightly higher then those two,but still the strongest October storm ever I believe.

So it just goes to show that there is no real limit to the strength that this system *could* reach,esp as the enviormental condtions are very favorable,I would have though that down the road we will have at least a mojor hurricane at one point.

[Mondy]

Cheers, KW :lol:

Good insight. I agree, a hurricane is/will be occuring. As usual, no one knows for sure what track it'll take yet!

Radar showing Wilma : http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

EDIT: Doesn't like that link..go into the Jamaican weather site, and click on satellite imagery

Edited October 15, 2005 by Mondy

[crimsone]

Carribean vapour loop

If a TD could be said to have an eye/center, would this suggest that it's moving west?

[Mondy]

On that above link, Crimsone, the whole system is wobbling west at the moment. Doesn't mean they all do. Many factors have to be taken into account such as High pressure in the vicinity, moisture, land proximity.

Below is a chart showing October storms and where they generally go:

[crimsone]

Thanks for that I hadn't realised that storms tend to follow different tracks depending on the month. Makes sense when you think about it though. I've learned something

So, with this depression wobbling westwards, would it suggest it's going to cross into the pacific (probably dying over mexico!) or heading for Texas? Or, perhaps, is this westward wobble random and the storms track still unpredictable with any real degree of certainty?

I ask only to learn a little :lol:

One thing I did notice, both on the vapour and the visible (more clearly on the vapour) is a really tight spiral of winds moving NE at about 18n 60w. Could this be just displacing it slightly?

Edited October 15, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

At a hunch, it's wobbling as it picks up more and more moisture, thus ultimately giving us Wilma..really a little far off yet to know what will happen (if at all)!

I'm having trouble viewing all the model forecasts tonight..bloody typical. If anyone can see them, be kind and post the latest runs :lol: