Waiting For Wilma!

[summer blizzard]

Mondy, i know the estimates seem high, however, in my opinion conditions are near perfect, i may change this forecast later, i also predicted that Rita would be category 5 when most people were predicting category 3, and i managed to predict the exact pressure of 897mb.

[Mondy]

It's a good question Wibs. One i've not thought about. Doubt it though. The sea temps drop rapidly in Nov thus not helping development. Hurricanes love warm waters!

SB, i wasn't knocking you at all with your prediction. It's very bold and may very well come off. B) Will be good fun to see if your spot on again

[Gray-Wolf]

I see 'floater one' is now over the system and the infrared shows pretty mega activity in the centre now.

It looks like Wilma will be named in the next advisory if she keeps up this level of unchecked development.

If TD24 keeps as slow as she is whilst putting on a bit of weight then come the turn north she may well pass through the Yukatan straights into the Gulf just as Rita passed through the florida Straights. With Rita the 'restriction' of the straights seemed somehow to allow her to intensify very rapidly as she exited them (Cat 1 to 4 in under 24hrs?).

My other 'pet' doesn't seem as happy a little bunny today and needs something soon to 'pep her up' or shell just become part of (soon to be) Wilma. B)

[summer blizzard]

I think that intensification is very rapid if a Hurricane is resticted because land will cause the hurricane to spin more and as a result convection will increase rapidly, i remember, that the outer rainbands of Hurricane Rita did not leave Florida for three days due to the fact that she was growing at the same rate at which she was moving.

[Fraggle]

Does anyone think the season will go on longer than normal?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Last year TS Otto formed in the Atlantic basin on 29 November, lasting only a few days but extending the season into December. Last year's season also started early with a TD in April so last year's season was technically a very long one. Things started later this year, but maybe will continue right up to the end of November.

[TreizeVents]

B)

[Mondy]

Looking organised now.

[kold weather]

Very good outflow there Mondy,I'm almost certain nexr recon will find TS winds,probably upto 45mph's as well.

In terms of strength down the line I think SB's predictions are amazingly bold,infact I'm almost certain that there isn't enough heat-content to support that system,Rita pretty much maxed out close to 100% of its MPI and this area is very close to that but with shear to its north it won't reach hat high.The systemn would have a shot at cat-5,esp as this area is still similar to what it was like in July when Emily passed through and winds recorded at 157mph,I'd suggest a max of 160mph and 910mbs.

Of coruse the key is will it have enough time to get to that strength,I wouldn't have thought so to be honest but with SST's above 30C(some areas at 30.5C) it has every shot at reaching major status and infact I think it may well reach cat-4 just before making landfall.If and its a big if it can make it through the Yucatan Channel then cat-5 is a possiblty but I think a landfall far western Cuba(which would only take a vcouple of hours to cross) at 140mph with pressure at 930mbs then a similar track to SB wit hthe north-east re-curve hitting S.Florida much like Charley as a cat-3 before pushing up trhe east coast as a cat-2 and weakening before being absorbed by a larger LP systems off Canada.

A long way out yet but thats just a few ideas from me at this point,upgraded to a TS within the next 12hrs and upgraded to hurricane status a further 24-30hrs down the line thanks to very good atmopsheric condtions and still fairly hot seasas high as they were during the summer or at least close and still good heat content.

[AmericanIceman]

Still A Depression....

000

WTNT44 KNHC 161435

TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

THERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE

DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION

NEAR THE CENTER WITH HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING. THE LATEST

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE UNCHANGED...AT

T2.5/35 KT...BUT AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SUCH A

BROAD WIND FIELD THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL LAGGING THE SATELLITE

SIGNATURE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING

THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH

OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY

FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC

OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST

CARIBBEAN. THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL

IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT...

BUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST. THE

GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN

THREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO

ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS

MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE

ADVISORY POSITION. THIS TOO...WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED WHEN THE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE

FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS

CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...WITH THE MORE

DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A

MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION BUT WILL

SOON BE MOVING BY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WESTWARD DRIFT TO RESUME

LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE

CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE

OVER THE GULF AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN

NORTH AS THE RIDGE ERODES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO

ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE FASTER THAN THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS.

[Mondy]

Cone of uncertainty has grown:

[Gray-Wolf]

Cone of uncertainty has grown:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And closer and closer to avoiding land (Cuba can do without it!! the recent rains to the west must have been enough for them) by slipping through the Yukatan Channel and on into the Gulf. I am still concerned about something BIG in the gulf pushing in a BIG tidal surge onto the US coastline (again) never mind more interuption to the refineries/platforms up there the poor folk can do without it too!!!

(at least the moon is waning so the tides won't be running as high as they could)

[Mondy]

Thing is though GW, nothing is certain with TD24 now it's stalled..

[crimsone]

Does anyone thing it'll be TS wilma when the next advisory (intemediate) is released in about an hour and 20 mins? It only needs about another 4 MpH over the previous adisory, but I'm not sure it looks like it's strengthened enough quite yet.

[Mondy]

I really don't like the GFDL now..brings TD24 or eventually Wilma down to 933mb with Cat 4 winds hammering Florida's west coast B)

sadly GW, going by that, Cuba gets a battering too

Edited October 16, 2005 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

It looks like a 'tale of two storms' at the mo'., the plotted centre of the low is to the east of the 'blob' I've been watching (which has drifted south, as it would circulating around the low centre) so I think I've only just recognised what I've been looking at!!! (the sooner she forms an eye the better!!!)

Yes Mondy, I'm afraid that Cuba may be on its itinerary and the SW coastal region will take the full brunt of any 'surge' that has formed by this time. I just think that the land thereabouts will already be saturated and will start to flow under the rain rate that the central bands will throw at it (solufluction?) B)

[crimsone]

It looks like a 'tale of two storms' at the mo'., the plotted centre of the low is to the east of the 'blob' I've been watching (which has drifted south, as it would circulating around the low centre) so I think I've only just recognised what I've been looking at!!! (the sooner she forms an eye the better!!!)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think that cloud mass (don't know what it is) at 10n 55w is heading for your 'blob' GW. B)

Edited October 16, 2005 by crimsone

[JSW]

Watching the formation of tropical storms this year what we have with the soon to be Wilma is something we really haven't seen this Hurricane season - tropical storm formation around the Caribbean.

The majority of storms at least in a major sense seem to have formed towards the North of the Bahamas or out in the mid-Atlantic. Even though this season ahs been incredibly active the number of storms which have formed down towards the Equator and moved up through the Lesser-Antilles and into Jamaica/Haiti/Dominican Republic/Cuba and onto The US has been relatively non-existant. Its what I like to call the 'typical' path. Ivan being an example from last year...

Back on Wilma and it seems to me that the likely probablility of choosing a hit target is still way to open. There are too many different influences which could make the difference. In my opinion whether 'Wilma' passes through the Yuctan Channel really won't make a significant difference what does interest me though is if it heads East towards the Gulf and eventually into Florida. Mow isn't it around this area where Katrina 'exploded' into a category 5 hurricane with the aid of those currents which helped feed it with energy? If Wilam were to pass through that area I think we could be looking at a pretty interesting situation, what we've seen so far this season is westward movement of storms surely an Eastwards motion presents some different characteristics?

Pinning detail at this point is difficult but I think conditions do suit for a powerful hurricane 3+ on the saffir-simpson scale at the very least...

[Mondy]

Too right JSW. How a crystal ball would help at the moment!

[AmericanIceman]

Hmm, How safe is the Panhandle & Big Bend region with this one?

[Mondy]

Just a snippet from National weather service, Florida

"THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE

EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO TD 24. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS A HURRICANE

(WHICH WOULD BE NAMED WILMA) JUST OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY

FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT MOST LONG RANGE MODELS CURVE IT TO THE

NORTHEAST AND TAKE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN.

Nobody knows! TD24 is hardly moving...a waiting game on the cards?

[MediaHype]

You are right Mondy this one is going to keep even the NHC guessing u ntil

the last moment <_<

[Mondy]

As a BIG aside (wasn't sure where to put this) UK is under a fair pounding come 96hrs..

sorry all for the huge image..i don't know how to shorten the size...

Anyway's, what is TD24 up to?

[Gray-Wolf]

Now its starting to take a more recognisable shape on the visible Sat loop, you can start to see clearly the total area involved in the circulation and I think you can now see the startings of the outer banding that helps constrict the central core. It is starting to look as though it could be a physically big storm (yet another over 300mls across). To think of a storm as big as the UK is truely awe inspiring!!!! <_<

As for 10n,55w it looks like a collision of airs is forcing up some convection but it has no circulation at all,'tis moving though!

[Hurricane Debby]

Thats one HUGE aside Mondy ! But thanks for that. Something to look forward to I hope

[Hurricane Debby]

Hi Gray-Wolf - what sites / maps are you looking at just out of curiosity ?