Waiting For Wilma!

[MAF]

now updated to Cat 1 Hurricane.

(sorry if this is already posted i couldnt be bothered to read back)

[Mondy]

Not before time a Cat 1 hurricane! We won't know much until she does start the NE turn. Again the cone of uncertainty has shifted. NHC have it still over S.Florida, but continuing as a hurricane to the other side thus entering the Atlantic still as a hurricane. If it goes over Lake Okeechobee, that will help Wilma too..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/FT_loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/RGB_loop.html :blink: :lol:

Edited October 18, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

GFDL model. I tend to agree with this one. It was excellent during Rita..

Anyway, 950mbs over central Florida, 109kts wind speed equates to a strong Cat 3.

Cat 3: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.

[Mondy]

High pressure

[Mondy]

Sorry..the below chart shows the high pressure and ridges to the north.

Besides, it seems to be a trend that October hurricanes take the Florida route.. :blink:

Pressure now down to 977mb, heading NW

Edited October 18, 2005 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

High pressure

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks Mondy, you've 'Murrayed it' now , bound to hit the panhandle/AL/MS now!!! :lol:

I still hold that the HP will already be on the retreat by the time she's 'picking her spot' and the final 'right turn' will ram her into the west panhandle area. Sadly I don't think she'll make it out the other side if she does!

If she takes the forcast path what are the chances of a 'double whammy' with it regaining structure and hitting NC/SC? :blink:

[Mondy]

Fantasy Island stuff, GW! :blink:

Forecast positions for Wilma.(all taking northerly-ish tracks)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM

Edited October 18, 2005 by Mondy

[londonsnow]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 181755

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO WILMA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180

MILES... 290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...12 KM/HR. A

MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES

OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN

CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10

INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[Mondy]

Taken another wobble westwards :blink: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/RB_loop.html

[Gray-Wolf]

I do think that until it makes it into the Gulf and settles into a more regular pattern the forcast tracks shouldn't be trusted (the cone may be appropriate) Once either through the straights or after it's brush with the peninsula we'll all be better placed to guess where she's heading. Still no eye formed yet. I wonder what type she'll develop? (big or tight and small)

[SMU]

I do think that until it makes it into the Gulf and settles into a more regular pattern the forcast tracks shouldn't be trusted (the cone may be appropriate) Once either through the straights or after it's brush with the peninsula we'll all be better placed to guess where she's heading. Still no eye formed yet. I wonder what type she'll develop? (big or tight and small)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Evening All-

Basing any predictions in the timeframe of T168 is still a little far out the 12z GFS is looking out on a limb tonight with NO phasing of Wilma with the Pacific Trough-

The key point here is far in terms of landfall north ( Lattitude Wilma Gets)If wilma Makes lanfall North of say Tampa then the short wave will come around the base of the Pacific trough through the American Delta ( alabama/ Mississippi/georga etc) then we are looking at Significant phase of Wilma & the pacific Trough- indicating a Major threat of a Hazel like East coast Hurricane...

It will race up the East Coast around the Howling jet along the base of the Trough-

Because of the phasing then it will hold on to its energy similar to Donna in 60 and hazel in 54 and the 1938 Hurricane-

Again this will ONLY happen if the Shortwave comes through the base of the pacific trough and landfall is North of Tampa-

If it comes in SOUTH of Tampa the Phasing occurs furtehr South and will become an east Coast storm around the Cape Cod region up towards Nova Scotia....

!2z ECM

Phase alert for the north-Eastern Seaboard of America-

New Brunswick / Maine Super 940Mb Low

12z ECM

From this image- hurricane Wilma has come into Phase with the Pacific Trough driving east through the midwest-

NE seaboard is already Saturated and this would be devastating- Severe flooding along with Wind damage-

This will certainly throw energy into the Jet and with the Pacific Jet Howling and a strong atlantic jet then Meridional flows and cold air will be NON exisitent-

A Warm start to Nov....

S

Edited October 18, 2005 by Steve Murr

[crimsone]

Wilma has almost completely pulled that cloack of cloud around her northwest side now...

And if I'm not mistaken, there's a small but significant indentation in the middle of it all, just where an eye should be?

[matmilne]

I posted "hurricane within 6 hours" at 2 40pm and here she is. i reckon the keys are likely to be hit, southern florida stands a good chance of being hit, but if you are in the keys i'd get the heck out of there if that high pressure strengthens the storm'll have no where else to go.

[crimsone]

the high pressure in the GoM is expected to weaken soon, and it's expected that Wilmas large and growing circulation will protect her from it anyway to some extent.

Edited October 18, 2005 by crimsone

[smich]

Evening All-

Basing any predictions in the timeframe of T168 is still a little far out  the 12z GFS is looking out on a limb tonight with NO phasing of Wilma with the Pacific Trough-

The key point here is far in terms of landfall north ( Lattitude Wilma Gets)If wilma Makes lanfall North of say Tampa then the short wave will come around the base of the Pacific trough through the American Delta ( alabama/ Mississippi/georga etc) then we are looking at Significant phase of Wilma & the pacific Trough- indicating a Major threat of a Hazel like East coast Hurricane...

It will race up the East Coast around the Howling jet along the base of the Trough-

Because of the phasing then it will hold on to its energy similar to Donna in 60 and hazel in 54 and the 1938 Hurricane-

Again this will ONLY happen if the Shortwave comes through the base of the pacific trough and landfall is North of Tampa-

If it comes in SOUTH of Tampa the Phasing occurs furtehr South and will become an east Coast storm around the Cape Cod region up towards Nova Scotia....

!2z ECM

Phase alert for the north-Eastern Seaboard of America-

New Brunswick / Maine Super 940Mb Low

12z ECM

From this image- hurricane Wilma has come into Phase with the Pacific Trough driving east through the midwest-

NE seaboard is already Saturated and this would be devastating- Severe flooding along with Wind damage-

This will certainly throw energy into the Jet and with the Pacific Jet Howling and a strong atlantic jet then Meridional flows and cold air will be NON exisitent-

A Warm start to Nov....

S

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Woah! Thanks for popping in Steve! :blink: You are ahead of the game, for sure. I hadn't even considered the possibililty of a big east coast storm, though Wilma surviving across the Florida peneinsula was always likely.

Closer to home, let's see what happens in the next 24hrs. Remember Rita? Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hrs...

I must stress again, how impressed I am with the sheer size of this storm...

Smich

[Gray-Wolf]

NE seaboard is already Saturated and this would be devastating- Severe flooding along with Wind damage-

S

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've watched a few reports on the extent of both the rainfall and flooding up there and the last thing they need right now is flash flooding/Gales on top of all that.

With sodden ground and trees still in part leaf there are the ingredients for another type of 'disaster'.

If the trees are blown down (due to sodden subsoils giving the roots less 'purchase' in the soil) it mayhave an effect like putting a huge great garden folk into the soils loosening the top soil further.

Twin that with sodden ground/heavy rain and hillsides will start moving downslope.

If this 'mud/soil slide meets with a swollen stream/river at the valley bottom then the two combine and you can imagine the destructive force such surges so heavy with load could be (and the clean up once the 'load' gets deposited).

Anyway, she's going into the panhandle (west of) :blink:

[crimsone]

That's the trouble with florida. I mean, south, mid, panhandle, west of panhandle...

because Florida is at a near right angle to the rest of the coast, the smallest change in track can severely affect where it will make it's landfall.

I'm still saying Florida, straight down the middle.

I do suspect though that the further west it goes before entering the gulf, the further north it will hit.

[SMU]

Woah! Thanks for popping in Steve!  :blink:   You are ahead of the game, for sure. I hadn't even considered the possibililty of a big east coast storm, though Wilma surviving across the Florida peneinsula was always likely.

Closer to home, let's see what happens in the next 24hrs. Remember Rita? Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hrs...

I must stress again, how impressed I am with the sheer size of this storm...

Smich

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Cheers Smich..

Current discussion from the American Pro mets- Just this minute updated- ( NOT NOAA OR JB) is as follows...- No link sorry folks...

Wilma continues to steadily strengthen this morning and was upgraded to a hurricane at 11am. There is nothing I see to inhibit strengthening in the near term and Wilma should become at least a category 3 hurricane sometime over the next 48 hours. Category 4 status is not out of the realm of possibility, but right now I am not forecasting that intensity. Wilma is moving NW now and this should continue for the next 72 hours or so.

Some changes have occurred in the short term track for Wilma. It now appears there is a good chance Wilma will not make landfall on the NE tip of the Yucatan, but will pass thru the Yucatan channel or make landfall on the western tip of Cuba. With the synoptic setup taking shape, it appears that the western Florida peninsula is under the gun for a hit from Wilma. It is still too early pin down an exact landfall pass, but the area from the Key's to Apalachee bay is very much in play, with my main area of interest, unfortunately, being the areas that were nailed by Charley last year, from Cape Romano north to Tampa Bay. If I had to make a call right now I would say between Sarasota and Charlotte harbor, but as I said it is still too early. Wilma will cross the peninsula and bring very stormy conditions to all in its path. Floridians need to prepare for another hurricane impact crossing the peninsula effecting many areas hardhit last year from the 4 hurricanes.

Beyond this there is a real possibility that Wilma will either totally phase with the incoming monster trough in the northern plains and eventually the Ohio Valley, or partially phase. This has big ramifications fo the eastern seaboard as a total phase could bring Wilma into the Carolina coast or Outer banks and then up or just off the mid-Atlantic and NE coast bringing a catastrophic hit, especially to areas where very heavy rain has occurred recently. This scenario right now to me is unlikely, but still on the table.  I think we lack a strong enough NW Atlantic ridge to force Wilma that close to shore. A more likely scenario is that Wilma begins to phase with the trough while out around 73 or 74W, SE of Hatteras, and gets captured by the trough late in the game, but enough to bring very heavy weather to alot of the NE from New York City north.  Either way New England could be effected. The other option is that Wilma is not captured by the trough, but move ENE and eventually NNE, and stays far enough off shore to spare the east coast, but probably make a huge impact in maritime Canada.

The 12z guidance has come in, with the Canadian now bringing landfall to near Tampa, the GFS across the Key's and extreme southern florida, the NOGAPS implying a hit near Charlotte Harbor, the UKMET a Keys and exteme S Florida hit. The models continue to struggle with how the trough will interact with the hurricane, as the UKMET forms a third low pressure center just off the NC Coast, and the GFS hints at that as well. The new ECMWF implies phasing occurs while the storm is off the Carolina coast early next week, and it looks to bring a major hit to New England. With the 24 hour spacing on the http://www.ecmwf.int site, it is hard to tell for sure, but this looks like a landfall between Charlotte Harbor and Tampa bay, and then a major hit for coastal New England and New Brunswick. A major major hit in my opinion.

Unfortunately, we still have a while to go before we get a clear consensus on the track of this hurricane. I will say that right now,  that anyone on the western Florida peninsula, particularly the southern half, should prepare for a major hurricane impact. Beyond that, it is still up in the air, it will be crucial to follow the Canadian s/w on the models the next few runs, and the short term trends with Wilma to see if she strays west or east of the current thinking, or slows or speeds up.

Regards

Steve

Edited October 18, 2005 by Steve Murr

[Mondy]

Interesting few posts recently..thought provoking.

Wilma is bang on target to go through the Yucatan Peninsula. Had a huge wobble west earlier, now slightly NW again... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

...i ain't even predicting a landfall until it passes the Yucatan - far too early to say.

100 miles is an easy descrepency in a cone of uncertainty...

[Mondy]

Here you Gw regarding the eye..

970mb, closed eye

URNT12 KNHC 182009

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 18/19:54:00Z

B. 16 deg 36 min N

081 deg 25 min W

C. 850 mb 1169 m

D. 55 kt

E. 335 deg 020 nm

F. 080 deg 075 kt

G. 348 deg 010 nm

H. 970 mb

I. 16 C/ 1526 m

J. 20 C/ 1526 m

K. 20 C/ NA

L. RAGGED

M. C10

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0524A Wilma OB 06

MAX FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 19:50:40 Z

VERY SMALL WIND CENTER

Edited October 18, 2005 by Mondy

[SnowBear]

Hiya Steve! Thanks for your posts! I certainly hadnt looked that far ahead due to Wilma's meandering and dallying.

Interesting to note from your link further up to the 12z ECM that the storm will have pretty much Cat 1 winds if my math is correct (not necessarily a technical hurricane but not impossible) if it does make a seaward track then make landfall near Cape Code/Maine/Nova Scotia. Something the guys up there sure dont need!

//

My feelings on this one I will stick to as all through, skim western Cuba > Ten Thousand Islands > Across FL > West Palm Beach > into the Atlantic > skimming up the Eastern Seaboard probably catching NC/VA then....as in Steve's posting re: Cape Cod/Maine/Nova Scotia, very possible but that is a long way off yet. If it is Cat 3 at landfall in FL, I doubt it will lose hurricane strength before West Palm Beach. A possible hurricane that make 3 landfalls? Time will tell :blink:

[Cassarah]

Hurricane WILMA Discussion

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000

WTNT44 KNHC 182042

TCDAT4

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS

THROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF

970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT. A

DROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND

RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING REGARDING THE INTENSITY

FORECAST. WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW

CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF

OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE

DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH

LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE

SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE

BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE

ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES

NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE

SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO

WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT

THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE

TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN

OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS

IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO

WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE

WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS

MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS

EXPECTED. ONLY VERY MODEST SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE

TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...WHICH...AT THIS TIME...IS

FOCUSING THE LONG-TERM THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.7N 81.5W 70 KT

12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 82.3W 90 KT

24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.2N 83.5W 100 KT

36HR VT 20/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 110 KT

48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 85.2W 115 KT

72HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W 110 KT

96HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 82.5W 100 KT

120HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 75.5W 70 KT

[Mondy]

Strange i suppose, but at the moment Wilma should be a Cat2 with a pressure drop like that (970mb), but the winds are still lowish...i seem to remember Rita did this, but she got her act together..

[crimsone]

as far as I can tell, it's wind shear to the north east that's causing it. when the shear goes, I thing we'd see a very very sharp increase in wind speed.

If you look to her 'open side' (rapidly closing now!) she's taking in a lot of dry air in the open gap in the outer banding.

latest sat image...

Edited October 18, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

can't help posting this link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/RGB_loop.html

it's something else just watching the movement :unsure: