Waiting For Wilma!

[londonsnow]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 182341

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS

WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A

HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS

THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...

GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...

295 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW

HOURS...WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8

MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER

RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH... 88 KM/HR...WITH A

GUST OF 63 MPH... 101 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER

WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5

TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE CAYMAN

ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND CUBA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE

POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[SMU]

Cat5 is something i thought about, but daren't post just yet!!

:unsure:    

Pressure drop of 9 mb in less than 90 minutes... very impressive

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Over the next 48 to 72 hours, Wilma will track over waters averaging 30C with significant/deep heat content. I would expect her to reach major hurricane status during this time and perhaps peek in intensity at or just below Cat 4 strength (135 mph winds.) category 5 isnt out of the question but unlikely-Most guidance continues to support the current idea of Wilma tracking just west of the tip of Cuba (through the Yucatan Channel) with an increasing Northeastward bend towards the Gulf coast of Florida around Saturday morning. Wilma should make landfall between Tampa and Naples sometime on Saturday as a strong Cat 2 or 3 hurricane.

Steve-

PS Cassarah _ I doubt any of us know what the record 'bomb' is in terms of pressure drop-

I think the lowest recorded was Hurricane Gilbert at 888 Millibar....

Intense to say the least

Edited October 19, 2005 by Steve Murr

[Mondy]

My word..this is a carbon copy of Gilbert :unsure:

Cat 4 before the Yucatan is on the cards now i feel...it's more than bombing

Cassarah. Hi mate

I think Gilbert in all truth holds the record - ???9I'm not sure since i only got into Hurri watching since Katrina and Rita, and now Wilma.....

[Sunshine_Gal]

Ah flip, any idea Steve what time on Saturday?? I know that's a nightmare of a thing to even contemplate working out and it's a stupid question really it's just that our plane will be landing in Sanford at 6pm. Don't want a rocky landing. :unsure:

[Cassarah]

PS Cassarah _ I doubt any of us know what the record 'bomb' is in terms of pressure drop-

I think the lowest recorded was Hurricane Gilbert at 888 Millibar....

Intense to say the least

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the reply Steve. :unsure:

[Mondy]

This thing is now intensifying at great pace..

this loop is amazing: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

i wouldn't be surprised if we got a "special update" soon as really, it should be a CAT 3 already.....

is it Gilbert again...uncanny resemblance...

off to bed

[Cassarah]

Mondy,

I started watching hurricanes after Ivan. I've been lurking here for a while now, but decided to join today. I seem to learn more about what's going on here than anywhere else. That image of Gilbert is amazing! Thanks for the reply. :unsure:

[crimsone]

Yes. I bet gilbert looked a treat from space!

I always find it quite amusing that the prettiest things in nature also tend to be the deadliest.

Edited October 19, 2005 by crimsone

[matmilne]

I always find it quite amusing that the prettiest things in nature also tend to be the deadliest.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yup, 100% of nature's beauty can be deadly to human beings.

TSR now have her as a cat 4 between cuba and yuc, cat 5 is possible if that high weakens a little in the next 5 days.

[AmericanIceman]

That photo of Hurricane Gilbert is so..so...AHH! That thing looks so freaking awesome.

[AmericanIceman]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 190231

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR

HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE

HURRICANE WATCH SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS

NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO

CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF

MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF

YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT

185 MILES... 295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT

405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH

...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...WITH WILMA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND

POSSIBLY BECOMING A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED

WINDS OF 50 MPH... 81 KH/HR...WITH A GUST OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15

INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN

ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5

TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH

THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH

ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS

NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[AmericanIceman]

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR

FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND

23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE

DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.

SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...

WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90

KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT

DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE

CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND

PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE

EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND

SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE

NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN

ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD

COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE

EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE

WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN

NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL

MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE

IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE

LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS

ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE

CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL

CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY

AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE

DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF

FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT

RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA

TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A

SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.

HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL

COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT

OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND

THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.

THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC

EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS

SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL

CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY

FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO

THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS

SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA

WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA.

THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON

WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT

ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT

12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT

24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT

36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT

48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT

72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT

96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT

$$

NNNN

------

What is so dreadful about a pinhole eye?

Edited October 19, 2005 by AmericanIceman

[Roger J Smith]

The pinhole eye indicates very rapid rotation of the eyewall as part of the ongoing rapid intensification process. As you've probably noted, Wilma has deepened by about 40 mb in the past 12 hours. This eye will probably increase in size through Wednesday and there is a good chance that Wilma will intensify to cat-4 or even cat-5 now.

Looks like the northeast tip of the Yucatan may be brushed by Wilma late Thursday then the eventual landfall will be around Naples FL south of Fort Myers, but all areas on Florida's Gulf coast will be on high alert for a possible strike Friday night or Saturday.

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 10:50 PM EDT, October 18, 2005

WOW! WILMA REALLY GETTING STRONG- FORECAST NOW TO A STRONG A CATEGORY FOUR- SOUTH FLORIDA IN GREAT DANGER

I really do not think this season can get any worse. Wilma is now on its way to being yet another category four hurricane with winds forecast to be near 145 mph. The pressure has dropped from 970 millibars to 945 millibars in about six hours. Now the time has come for people in south Florida to prepare and prepare seriously. The official foreast takes Wilma inland just south of Naples and then out perhaps near West Palm Beach. While the exact landfall location is tough to pin down this far out, I can tell you now that a great deal of south Florida will feel the damaging effects from Wilma. Tomorrow and Thursday need to be used to prepare and evacuate in order to save lives. The storm surge potential along the SW Florida coast is downright terrifying. I will be most interested to see what the NHC forecasts once Wilma rounds the corner and heads towards Florida. The other item to consider is how fast Wilma will likely be moving when it hits. The forward speed will increase significantly and Wilma will literally blast through Florida. This means that people who choose to stay in an evacuation area will not have the luxury of waiting until the last minute- that last minute will be too late. There is no other way to say it but to urge people to take this hurricane very seriously. I will be on my way to the Naples area tomorrow and will be working hard to gather information and report back here as safely as possible. I will post regular updates throughout the mission with the next update coming tomorrow morning around 7am or so.

(Courtesy Hurricane Track)

[Gorky]

Storm Name: WILMA (24L)

Mission Number: 07

Flight ID: AF308

Observation Number: 07

Time: 04:32:40Z

Latitude: 16.9°N

Longitude: 81.9°W

Location: 218 mi NNE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua

Minimum height at 850 mb 516 m

Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA

Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA

Maximum flight level wind: ESE (116°) @ 187 mph

Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 3 mi NNE (15°)

Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 901 mb

Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 63°F at 5043 feet

Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 79°F at 5108 feet

Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 77°F

Eye character: CLOSED WALL

Eye shape: Circular

Eye diameter: 5 mi

Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 850 mb

Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm

MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

OMFG!!!

[SMU]

Storm Name: WILMA (24L)

Mission Number: 07

Flight ID: AF308

Observation Number: 07

Time: 04:32:40Z

Latitude: 16.9°N

Longitude: 81.9°W

Location: 218 mi NNE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua

Minimum height at 850 mb 516 m

Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA

Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA

Maximum flight level wind: ESE (116°) @ 187 mph

Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 3 mi NNE (15°)

Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 901 mb

Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 63°F at 5043 feet

Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 79°F at 5108 feet

Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 77°F

Eye character: CLOSED WALL

Eye shape: Circular

Eye diameter: 5 mi

Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 850 mb

Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm

MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

OMFG!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Morning All-

OMG total bomb 70 millibar over night......

Another sub 900 again....

S

[Roger J Smith]

This extremely rapid development of Wilma from cat-1 about 24 hours ago to almost a cat-5 hurricane as of 0600z, involving a pressure drop of around 80 mb, is virtually unprecedented. This does not necessarily mean that the hurricane will be more intense than previously predicted when it reaches Florida, because this cycle of development could indicate a future tendency for a weakening trend. However, some of the models are indicating an environment for Wilma that is fairly similar to Charley in August 2004, which could mean that southwest Florida may face a cat-4 landfall somewhere around Fort Myers to Naples on Friday.

After crossing Florida around Friday night, Wilma seems destined to move in one of two directions, depending on which models you prefer. One set of tracks brings the hurricane into the central Atlantic and presumably it would end up (in extra-tropical form) near the British Isles around Oct 27-28. The other cluster of tracks is more dangerous for New England and eastern Canada, with the European model showing a very fast-moving and deep storm hitting Maine and New Brunswick. Frankly, I find the central Atlantic scenario more plausible, but it's not even a sure thing that Wilma will escape the Caribbean yet -- it could still veer more west and come inland in the Yucatan or even swerve into Honduras, but the models are downplaying those possibilities.

[SMU]

NGT 16 mb drop in 3 hours.... Sub 900 anyone Cat 5... :huh:

S

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sub 900 Mb Soon to come can she break the 885 Mb barrier?????

S

[Kain]

Looks like Wilma is on steriods!

Shes bombing like crazy!

Kain

[Mondy]

:huh: Speechless --- 892mb!!

URNT12 KNHC 190648

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 19/06:11:10Z

B. 16 deg 58 min N

082 deg 11 min W

C. 700 mb 2132 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 202 deg 168 kt

G. 109 deg 003 nm

H. EXTRAP 892 mb

I. 10 C/ 3058 m

J. 24 C/ 3034 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C2

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 0724A Wilma OB 12

MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

Cat 5 wind speeds...

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

2nm wide eye. Wilma is like a tornado (with a pressure equating to that) surrounded by vast swathes of cloud.

She's gonna implode any time...inner core could come apart anytime now..

By the way, 5mb to go for the Atlantic record...23mb for all time record :huh:

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[Roger J Smith]

This seems to be an area of the Caribbean where very low pressures can develop. Mitch was not too far to the west of this location and made it to around 900 mb, and Gilbert was located around where Wilma should be in 24 hours when it bottomed out at 885 mb. I was just looking at a satellite loop and it's quite astounding how rapidly Wilma developed from a rather incomplete system yesterday into a formidable looking circular hurricane today. The pressure fall over 48 hours is now in the area of 100 mb.

[The PIT]

Jeez another Cat 5 Hurricane.

Amazing development in such a short time.

[Gray-Wolf]

---

EDIT I'm speechless :huh: ------------

Edited October 19, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[boro_dave]

My God....

When I went to bed last night it was category one....

Now it is category 4.... soon to be 5....

If it happens to take a more northerly track over the Tampa/Orlando region I am screwed...