Waiting For Wilma!

[Mondy]

Hi SG

Ok, the cone of uncertainty, as it does daily, has changed again. 2 days ago, the whole of the Gulf of Mexico was in Wilma's sights, now not so.

Although the models agree on a Florida hit, a couple bring Wilma to the very south of Florida now, mainly the Keys. Models tend to become pretty accurate after a Tropical Storm has formed - not so during tropical waves or depressions.

Going by this: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html looks like she's been stiuck in the doldrums over night and now further intensifying??, and heading due north. She was heading south this time yesterday!

All in all, still very difficult to predict. Models could all be wrong; she could even degenerate (although i doubt that)....

...fingers crossed for you guys heading over there in the coming days...

[boro_dave]

Damn, looks like its forecast to turn to Florida 

Not good for me since I am leaving on thursday for a family trip to Disneyland, Orlando (with the family).

If anyone here has any advice (I will listen to anyone saying 'dont go!!' but I am unlikely to cancel the holiday now) on what to do in a hurricane please post it here or PM me. If one does hit we will probably not be evacuating since we arent near the coast, but will still have to sit it out.

On a lighter note, there will be at least one net-weather reporter there to get some photos (and videos) if it does hit while I am there. So bad news for me, good news for you guys! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi everyone

I've been lurking around here for months and have been glued to threads during hurricanes in particular Katrina. This hurricane to be is no different except my family and I are due to fly out to Orlando on Saturday. I'm crapping it but that's mainly due to the worry of the holiday being cancelled and we're only going for a week. 

I've been in and out of here like a yoyo looking for updates etc. To the other guy going to Florida I feel your apprehension!!! I'm hoping that it misses Florida altogether. We're going specifically for Halloween Horror Nights at Universal one of our nights is Sunday 23rd and the other is Thurs 27th. Maybe we won't see it at all. Fingers crossed anyway.

Keep up the good work guys, this truly is a great site with some very talented people. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wow, looks like we are both in an identical situation, at least we're not alone

I agree I hope she swings south so at least we wouldnt get the worst of it. You never know, we might end up seeing each other at one of the parks.

Edited October 18, 2005 by boro_dave

[Mondy]

Florida Keys area discussion:

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD WILMA STRENGTHEN AND FINALLY MOVE

TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THEN THIS PERIOD MAY SEE INCREASED SE

WINDS AND INCREASED SHOWER THREAT FROM OUTER BANDS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NHC FORECAST SHOWS AN ACCELERATING

WILMA OF HURRICANE STRENGTH TURNING NE AND PASSING NEAR THE KEYS.

ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE INDICATED FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT

IF NHC PATHCAST AND INTENSITY COME TRUE...THEN MORE THREATENING

FORECAST WORDING WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED. THERE REMAINS

UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY TIME.

SUNDAY...IF WILMA PASSES QUICKLY BY...LINGERING WIND PROBLEMS MAY

AFFECT SUNDAY BUT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER. TIMING IS TOO

UNCERTAIN AT THIS EARLY TIME.

Again, all up in the air until Wilma passes the Yucatan...

[Sunshine_Gal]

Thanks everyone, I'll be tuning in here regularly.

My name is mud in our household at the moment OH and teen are blaming me because for months I've been saying it would be some experience to go through a hurricane and now we're due to go there is the possiblity!!!!

boro_dave are you going to the horror nights??? We went last year and it's fabulous fun, might not happen on Sunday though eh???

Mondy that looks very interesting thanks, it's the waiting that's killing me I've got to say.

[Joneseye]

Thanks everyone, I'll be tuning in here regularly. 

My name is mud in our household at the moment OH and teen are blaming me because for months I've been saying it would be some experience to go through a hurricane and now we're due to go there is the possiblity!!!!

boro_dave are you going to the horror nights??? We went last year and it's fabulous fun, might not happen on Sunday though eh???

Mondy that looks very interesting thanks, it's the waiting that's killing me I've got to say.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Sunshine Gal!

I am off to Cancun on the 31st October as earlier on in the season I booked it and told the other half that the season would be pretty much over by then. She was not impressed when I was talking to my mates about the amount of activity still going on!

I hope things work out for you and boro dave - stay safe!

[crimsone]

I stilll think it's forecast too far south. the vapor satellite shows the flow of dry air happily streaming across the gulf and heading sw around florida, but I suspect that that will change soon as whatever system is causing this sw dip in the flow (can be seen just above florida) over the US moves further east.

I wouldn't be at all suprised to see it hit the middle of florida. Of course I may well be completely wrong (wouldn't suprise me either!).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Edited October 18, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

8AM EDT Bulletin just out: Down to 980mb.

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES

...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 210 MILES...

335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA

/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS

EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN

WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA ARE EXPANDING...AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD

UP TO 125 MILES ...200 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES

OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN

CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10

INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT

...DRIFTING NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[crimsone]

is this an eye like feature I see forming?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

[Mondy]

I stilll think it's forecast too far south. the vapor satellite shows the flow of dry air happily streaming across the gulf and heading sw around florida, but I suspect that that will change soon as whatever system is causing this sw dip in the flow (can be seen just above florida) over the US moves further east.

I wouldn't be at all suprised to see it hit the middle of florida. Of course I may well be completely wrong (wouldn't suprise me either!).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Similarly Crimsone, this is a definite loopwe should all bookmark nearer Wilma's expected arrival area..

Edit: looks like a forming eye to me..just wait 'til the south field wraps itself around Wilma

Edited October 18, 2005 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

Similarly Crimsone, this is a definite loopwe should all bookmark nearer Wilma's expected arrival area..

Edit: looks like a forming eye to me..just wait 'til the south field wraps itself around Wilma

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Cheers for that Mondy, this link will prove invaluable later!! (we can all be singing from the same sheet!) plus if you move it to the NW you get a fine view of where I reckon she'll 'come in'.

[Mondy]

Cheers for that Mondy, this link will prove invaluable later!! (we can all be singing from the same sheet!) plus if you move it to the NW you get a fine view of where I reckon she'll 'come in'.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I love the way you are thinking one step ahead of everyone else

Brilliant

[crimsone]

Thanks for that Mondy. A very useful loop indeed

Edit: looks like a forming eye to me..just wait 'til the south field wraps itself around Wilma

I like that! It brought a picture to mind of itbeing almost like Dracula wrapping his cloak around himself just before turning into a bat - presumably to go off and do something sinister and powerful. I guess I must hold hurricanes in a similar "awe" of mesmerising fascination.

Edited October 18, 2005 by crimsone

[Polar Bear]

Cheers for that Mondy, this link will prove invaluable later!! (we can all be singing from the same sheet!) plus if you move it to the NW you get a fine view of where I reckon she'll 'come in'.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yeah defo - v clever link! Like it.

[Mondy]

Actually, this one is even better! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/tbw_N0Z_lp.shtml

Edited October 18, 2005 by Mondy

[Polar Bear]

Edit: looks like a forming eye to me..just wait 'til the south field wraps itself around Wilma

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[crimsone]

What with the red "beam" appearing mid loop, it looks like a low grade animation of aliens attacing east florida with lasers and blowing it up. (My imagination appears to be running away with me! somebody stop me! lol)

seriously though, what does the loop display? Never seen it before.

Edited October 18, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

Rainfall intensity more than anything, crimsone

Close up view of TS Wilma below, if the eye is now forming?? can't be long until Hurricane Wilma is officially mentioned:

Another. These images should eventually change

Edited October 18, 2005 by Mondy

[crimsone]

Thanks mondy I'd say that's an eye forming I don't know that it will actually finish forming though unless that band comes around and fills the gap. Wilma has had a feature similar to this once before that simly drifted off the edge of the storm.

[matmilne]

According to TSR she should reach a category one within the next 6 hours

[smich]

Hi all,

I still think the eye is a little way off yet.

Looking at these latest pics tho' (thanks Mondy), she's a big storm eh?

Even if boro dave and sunshine gal don't suffer a direct hit, I'm afriad they might be in for a pretty rotten day's weather....

...lucky things!

Smich

[Sunshine_Gal]

Hi all,

I still think the eye is a little way off yet.

Looking at these latest pics tho' (thanks Mondy), she's a big storm eh? :blink:

Even if boro dave and sunshine gal don't suffer a direct hit, I'm afriad they might be in for a pretty rotten day's weather....

...lucky things! :lol:

Smich

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've seen it rain for two weeks straight in Florida before so I'd rather have a holiday spoiled for a hurricane as opposed to just pesky rain with no high winds or thunder or eeek even a tornado ya beauty!!! Gotta get something out of it. :lol:

[Cassarah]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA BECOMES THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON AS IT HEADS

NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195

MILES... 320 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 200

MILES... 325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE

NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR... AND

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES

OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN

CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10

INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 80.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Hurricane Debby]

Courtesy Hurricane Track4

UPDATED: 11:10 am EDT, October 18, 2005

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THE KEYS AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA- GET READY NOW!

Wilma is going to be a major news story over the coming days as it gathers strength in the Carribean Sea. The official word from the NHC is that Wilma will reach a solid category three strength as it heads in to the Gulf of Mexico. From there, it is forecast to move quickly towards southern and southwest Florida. People from Tampa south to the Keys need to be very sure they know where this hurricane is headed and what action they will take. This is not one to take lightly and assume that it will miss your location. Wilma is expected to be a large hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread out over an enormous area. This means that a great deal of south Florida will feel the effects of Wilma. For people in southwest Florida, the storm surge threat is frightening. Trust me when I tell you- there is no reason to stay and hope the surge is not as bad as will be predicted. If you are told you should evacuate by your local officials, do it as soon as possible. Southwest Florida has a large storm surge potential and places like Naples, Marco Island and points north and south could be hit hard. Heed those evacuation warnings that we all know are just a matter of time in coming.

:blink: :lol::lol:

[Hurricane Debby]

Sorry - perhaps not :blink: for those in South Florida and those travelling over there

[Hurricane Debby]

Mondy and Gray Wolf - where are you ?!! With all this action going on ! I'm relying on you guys for the satellite links and pics !

:blink: