Wilma

[frogesque]

Buoy 42056

Wind Speed (WSPD): 58.3 kts

Wind Gust (GST): 71.9 kts

Wave height 36.1 feet

How much water will be piling up trying to get through the Yucatan/Cuba gap?

[smich]

My old route home from the Pub was very 'Trochoidal'!!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LMAO!!!!

Smich

[SnowBear]

How much water will be piling up trying to get through the Yucatan/Cuba gap?

Quite a bit on the Yucatan,

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_height9

at +12hrs and +18hrs....50' as Wilma passes by

Edit: Beyond the Yucatan I dont think that Wave model is accurate for now, it makes for a landfall, which I dont think will happen.

Edited October 21, 2005 by SnowBear

[Cloudburst]

So WILMA is the biggest Hurricane ever , i wonder if next season there will be an even 'Bigger' one.

[Gray-Wolf]

All of us who can 'see' it missing Yukatan are at odds with the majority of the models (posted on the links site) as only ukmo has her 'missing' landfall both at Yukatan and Florida!!! :blink:

[londonsnow]

All of us who can 'see' it missing Yukatan are at odds with the majority of the models (posted on the links site) as only ukmo has her 'missing' landfall both at Yukatan and Florida!!! :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i still think she'll miss yukatan. but then what do i know?

[Joneseye]

i still think she'll miss yukatan. but then what do i know?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So do I, but more out of hope as I am supposed to be going to Cancun in 10 days time....

[SnowBear]

Hold a straight edge on the rgb sat loop, Wilma's western eyewall might pass over Cancun, but that is without any more turning. She will also try to take the path of least resistance, the sea.

[frogesque]

Thanks for the link SnowBear.

50' is scary stuff , especialy when they are repeated over time - it can make new geography :blink:

[Brrr]

GW/KW. the last frame on the visible is now showing a 'jog' to the East again - keeping us all guessing again...(thought the fact the eye doesn't actually sit on top of land I'm sure doesn't make an awful lot of difference at the proximity it's at to the people on the ground).

Edited October 21, 2005 by Brrr

[crimsone]

GW. the last frame on the visible is now showing a 'jog' to the East again - keeping us all guessing again...(thought the fact the eye doesn't actually sit on top of land I'm sure doesn't make an awful lot of difference at the proximity it's at to the people on the ground).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ok, last night the forecastn track points on the sat were curved, And I felt Wilma would be just slightly east of them.

Now the forecast points form a right-angle from the Yutacan! Methisks that that's wishful thinking for florida. I'm expecting a coastal bruch...

...since when did hurricanes travel in right sngles around corners?

[SnowBear]

Gonna be a real close call if she stays on the track she is on.....real close(for Cancun eye landfall)

Edited October 21, 2005 by SnowBear

[crimsone]

Thanks for the link SnowBear.

50' is scary stuff , especialy when they are repeated over time - it can make new geography :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

50' is scary stuff. period!

especially if you're standing on the beach! 50' is the height of a 3-4 story building!

[SnowBear]

...since when did hurricanes travel in right sngles around corners?

They can stop, back track, loop the loop, pretty much every acrobatic move you can think of :blink:

[Polar Bear]

So do I, but more out of hope as I am supposed to be going to Cancun in 10 days time....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Joneseye, I suggest you cancel your trip, or rather have a feeling you wont be able to get there. Maybe best to see if you can get compensation :blink:

[Brrr]

The radar looks pretty scary if you were in Cancun at the moment

Cancun Radar

[Polar Bear]

The radar looks pretty scary if you were in Cancun at the moment

Cancun Radar

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ooh not nice outlook :blink:

[Gray-Wolf]

I notice NHC have updated their Trop Fcst Points on the Sat loops now and they are showing a minimal contact with Yukatan (sadly Cancum) but very different from the majority of the model tracks (apart from ukmo).

[Brrr]

Another interesting view - updated every 10 mins I've been told.... (click on the point you want a close up on)

IR Image Cancun

GW the models seem a little confused at times ha!

[Joneseye]

Joneseye, I suggest you cancel your trip, or rather have a feeling you wont be able to get there. Maybe best to see if you can get compensation 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am planning to watch for the next 24 hours to see what happens. I have been glued to this thread for days now and feel a little bit selfish harping on about my holiday when there are lives at risk.

:blink:

[Brrr]

A question.. if the eye does cross the tippy edge of Mexico there.... will it really make that much difference to the strength of Wilma?

What I want to know is if there is only minimal contact with land (rather like crossing over a 'little' Island) will it really affect a hurricane that much? :blink:

Edited October 21, 2005 by Brrr

[Polar Bear]

I am planning to watch for the next 24 hours to see what happens. I have been glued to this thread for days now and feel a little bit selfish harping on about my holiday when there are lives at risk.

:blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Joneseye - dont be too hard on yourself it isn't your fault. I dont think you are selfish at all. Sometimes I wish more people would air on the side of caution,(namely the poweres that be) then perhaps maybe there is a slight chance not so many lives would be put at risks. I wish all those out there to be safe wherever Wilma ends up spouting her forces.

[SnowBear]

Geesh...I think its going to be so close that a wobble will make the difference to a landfall and not.

[Brrr]

Geesh...I think its going to be so close that a wobble will make the difference to a landfall and not.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, but even if it does 'make landfall' will it make any real difference with such a slight impact? That's what I was just wondering (nobody's answered though!)

Edited October 21, 2005 by Brrr

[SnowBear]

Yes, but even if it does will it make any real difference with such a slight impact? That's what I was just wondering (nobody's answered though!)

A slight weakening, not enough, there will be some effects even without a true landfall, land drag on the Yucatan etc. Cat 5 to Cat 4, which with Wilma makes no odds, still a destructive hurricane at 4 or 5.