Wilma

[crimsone]

I still say a surge of 35-50 feet is more of a 'pseudo tsunami' than a storm surge. I mean, it's 3 stories high!

[MAF]

I still say a surge of 35-50 feet is more of a 'pseudo tsunami' than a storm surge. I mean, it's 3 stories high!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well the difference is, is that a tsunami is one large wave. the storm surge is many waves coming in one after the other :unsure:

[matmilne]

technically it's a storm surge, tsunami's are cause by underwater vibrations and land movement, storm surges are caused by wind and low pressure. But if it does grow to typical tsunami size it'll be one of the if not thee largest strom surge on record.

she was the most intense cat 5 making her the most intense hurricane on record so it's only logical that a massive storm surge which breaks most definitions of one, should occur as well.

i have a feeling this will be a record breaking season in more than a few ways.

It could make a good case for climate change as well.

Edited October 20, 2005 by matmilne

[Mondy]

Hmmmn! :blink:

Not really off topic,but for the past 10 minutes i've been watching (i think) another tropical depression forming - approx 12 N55W

The last frame on this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html shows a gathering of clouds not unfamiliar to the way Wilma formed :unsure:

80% sure this is gonna be Alpha!

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[MAF]

has a hurricane ever been know to create another storm by the nature of its motion?

[matmilne]

that's the second tropical wave, there are four. one formed wilma, the next one is coming in now, and the others are right behind

what would be nasty is if the two interacted and we were left with 2 cat 5's dancing around one another.

Edited October 20, 2005 by matmilne

[Hurricane Debby]

Hmmmn! :blink:

Not really off topic,but for the past 10 minutes i've been watching (i think) another tropical depression forming - approx 12 N55W

The last frame on this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html shows a gathering of clouds not unfamiliar to the way Wilma formed :unsure:

80% sure this is gonna be Alpha!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[londonsnow]

Hmmmn! :blink:

Not really off topic,but for the past 10 minutes i've been watching (i think) another tropical depression forming - approx 12 N55W

The last frame on this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html shows a gathering of clouds not unfamiliar to the way Wilma formed :unsure:

80% sure this is gonna be Alpha!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

hi mondy, yes i flagged that one up earlier today, but some were saying that its unlikely to follow wilma as the waters will be cooler in her path. any thoughts?

[Mondy]

Here are the four: :unsure:

[Polar Bear]

what would be nasty is if the two interacted and we were left with 2 cat 5's dancing around one another.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[londonsnow]

is it possible to have two hurricanes in close vicinity. just a thought. seems highly improbable to me

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmmn! :blink:

Not really off topic,but for the past 10 minutes i've been watching (i think) another tropical depression forming - approx 12 N55W

The last frame on this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html shows a gathering of clouds not unfamiliar to the way Wilma formed :unsure:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, there was a little natter earlier today about it but it has moved on a couple of hours.

If it continues in and over the Warm water loop south of Cuba (some talk of warm water circulation during Rita and a link was posted highlighting the 'then' current circulations, the biggest/warmest being south of Cuba) then maybe Alpha will be very close on Wilma's heels.

So far as Wilma is concerned I don't buy the 'catastrophic effect' of a Yukatan contact (as 3 of the models are showing) but i do think it will radically alter her track when she 're-groups' on the other side (further away from the ridge they where wanting to help 'steer her') and I think a drift North (another 'warm water loop' over NW Gulf I seem to remember) and then turn NE trawling the Gulf Coast with landfall around west panhandle area.

[Mondy]

hi mondy, yes i flagged that one up earlier today, but some were saying that its unlikely to follow wilma as the waters will be cooler in her path. any thoughts?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well,the SST's Wilma's currently going through are around 26-28C..i can't see them sea temp's being any lower as to where the first wave is.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL

WAVE LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE

INCREASED. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

That was fromthe 5AM discussion (10am Uk time), so things can change quickly...just ask Wilma :unsure: Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

I think a drift North (another 'warm water loop' over NW Gulf I seem to remember) and then turn NE trawling the Gulf Coast with landfall around west panhandle area. 

Think you could be right GW... :unsure: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap...&dtg=2005102000

[crimsone]

this is my understanding of hurricane storm surges, hennce my pseudo-tsunami comment. (IE, not really a tsunami, but some striking similarities and (well, at 50 feet anyway...) the same kind of power)...

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

Outer eyewall now visible: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

[Gray-Wolf]

She's still not following the track is she?

We should surely be seeing quite a pronounced turn to the NNW for her to follow the track recently amended (I still think they haven't got a 'bead' on her) and with the models now becoming divergent it's all down to best guess tracks.

I don't think there is enough influence (steering) to sway her from her current track (just think of her mass and couple that with her forward motion and a bit of Newton's 2nd law?) She is a very heavy blob of cloud with all the rain on board and she has got a mighty 'spin' to her keeping it all held together.

I think she will smash into Yukatan, full on, and stagger away from the meeting to reform over the next two days (by that time Alpha may be forming in Wilmas Nursery south of Cuba) but her track/intensity will be different. :unsure:

[crimsone]

why didn't the greeks start their alphabet with 'Bam Bam'. They missed a treat there! :unsure:

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

Good post, Gw.

The models are varying a lot. GFDL was the overwhelming champion when it came to predicting Rita and Katrina..so it's GFDL for me all the way - and the track is as you say :unsure: GFDL

The soon to be Alpha??? is very apparent on the long range IR: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html

Needs watching closely now, i feel :blink:

[crimsone]

Good post, Gw.

The models are varying a lot. GFDL was the overwhelming champion when it came to predicting Rita and Katrina..so it's GFDL for me all the way - and the track is as you say :unsure: GFDL

The soon to be Alpha??? is very apparent on the long range IR: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html

Needs watching closely now, i feel :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hang on!

Ex-Hurricane wilma is forecast to hit Canada with Cat 3 wind speeds? What with the phasing prediction, I could quite believe it could happen, but hell that's a frightening thought!!!

As for alpha, are tropical systems really so much like buses?

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[MAF]

Outer eyewall now visible: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yep, shaping up now, hopefully in next 6-8 hours eye will be sharply defined

[Cassarah]

Hang on!

Ex-Hurricane wilma is forecast to hit Canada with Cat 3 wind speeds? What with the phasing prediction, I could quite believe it could happen, but hell that's a frightening thought!!!

As for alpha, are tropical systems really so much like buses?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Um, this caught my eye. Just wondering where you heard this, and are they talking about the Maritime provinces?

[Polar Bear]

Good post, Gw.

The models are varying a lot. GFDL was the overwhelming champion when it came to predicting Rita and Katrina..so it's GFDL for me all the way - and the track is as you say :unsure: GFDL

The soon to be Alpha??? is very apparent on the long range IR: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...8irnhcjava.html

Needs watching closely now, i feel :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i am stupid - so can anyone circle where alpha is for me I know mondy you sent a view of all the TS's but my system didn't display it very clearly - sorry to be a pain

[Joneseye]

She's still not following the track is she?

We should surely be seeing quite a pronounced turn to the NNW for her to follow the track recently amended (I still think they haven't got a 'bead' on her) and with the models now becoming divergent it's all down to best guess tracks.

I don't think there is enough influence (steering) to sway her from her current track (just think of her mass and couple that with her forward motion and a bit of Newton's 2nd law?) She is a very heavy blob of cloud with all the rain on board and she has got a mighty 'spin' to her keeping it all held together.

I think she will smash into Yukatan, full on, and stagger away from the meeting to reform over the next two days (by that time Alpha may be forming in Wilmas Nursery south of Cuba) but her track/intensity will be different. :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I sincerely hope she does change track as I am due to go to Cancun on the 31st and I can't imagine that there will be much left if she hits it head on :unsure:

[Gray-Wolf]

i am stupid - so can anyone circle where alpha is for me I know mondy you sent a view of all the TS's but my system didn't display it very clearly - sorry to be a pain

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Have look around 12n,54w but watch a loop don't just take an image. I think it's bound for the 'warm water loop' south of Cuba and the system already seems busy even before this 'pepping up' takes place.