Wilma

[Mondy]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 20/10:20:00Z

B. 18 deg 14 min N

085 deg 04 min W

C. 700 mb 2313 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg 000 nm

F. 046 deg 122 kt

G. 314 deg 023 nm

H. 910 mb

I. 12 C/ 3052 m

J. 19 C/ 3045 m

K. 18 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALLS

M. CO7-35

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 0924A WILMA OB 24 CCA

MAX FL WIND 137 KT NE QUAD 8:44 Z

Line L explains to me that she has two eyewalls. Line M explains one eyewall at 7nm the other 35nm..Pressure still very low at 910mb for a Cat 4 (winds have eased)

I predict another bomb by this time tomorrow...

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

I see that the models are having a bit of 'fall out' over how much the 'brush' with Yukatan will cost Wilma (but more agreement about what happens after Florida). Some of the models have her 'totalled ' by the contact.

From the visible satellite it looks like her eye may be opening up and it looks a lot bigger than the pin hole we had yesterday.

[crimsone]

Ah. Now THAT'S a problem! If it's a 30 foot surge (including wave height) in the west carribean, it could be much higher over the GoM. If it did get any higher, it would probably be better described as a 'pseudo tsunami'.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On the BBC news, a florida official just said that the various models are forecasting a Florida storm surge of up to 35/45/maybe even 50 feet! What makes this worse of course, is that there'll be another, lesser surge on the other side of Florida.

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

The 11:15 IR shows her looking a lot more organised now. Seems to have given herself a shake! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ve/javanh1.html

[Mondy]

I've an awful feeling now she's gonna plough straight into Cancun/Yucatan as a strong Cat 4 and probably won't turn northeast until she's wreaked havoc there.

Posted yesterday about the fact she might not turn at all - anyone want to take me up on a wager? (joke)

Edit: Heavy rain falling over Cuba at the mo: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[MAF]

I've an awful feeling now she's gonna plough straight into Cancun/Yucatan as a strong Cat 4 and probably won't turn northeast until she's wreaked havoc there.

Posted yesterday about the fact she might not turn at all - anyone want to take me up on a wager? (joke)

Edit: Heavy rain falling over Cuba at the mo: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well the track has changed a bit since yesterday mate, so your odds may be quite short.

[MAF]

Mondy, seen this pic?

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136383m...ce_20051015.jpg

[Polar Bear]

I've an awful feeling now she's gonna plough straight into Cancun/Yucatan as a strong Cat 4 and probably won't turn northeast until she's wreaked havoc there.

Posted yesterday about the fact she might not turn at all - anyone want to take me up on a wager? (joke)

Edit: Heavy rain falling over Cuba at the mo: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is it me or is she increasing in size (diameter) - she looks huuge at the mo. I suspect it could just be me

[Polar Bear]

Mondy, seen this pic?

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136383m...ce_20051015.jpg

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

sesnow - what is the picture telling us? am not an expert but it looks impressive and scary to me. cheersies

[Mondy]

Mondy, seen this pic?

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136383m...ce_20051015.jpg

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

:blink: Would loved to have seen it when she was at 882mbs!

That was from the 17th when she was still a Tropical Storm

Tells you the height of the cloud formation all around Wilma. Different colours = thunderstorms, i guess :unsure:

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[Polar Bear]

:blink: Would loved to have seen it when she was at 882mbs!

That was from the 17th when she was still a Tropical Storm

Tells you the height of the cloud formation all around Wilma. Different colours = thunderstorms, i guess :unsure:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

wow - amazing

[Mondy]

Is it me or is she increasing in size (diameter) - she looks huuge at the mo. I suspect it could just be me

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The eye is gonna be massive when it clears the cloud out!

[MAF]

sesnow - what is the picture telling us? am not an expert but it looks impressive and scary to me. cheersies

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This image, taken at the same time as the first image, (click on image to expand) gives a 3D perspective of the system from TRMM The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite took this image . The isosurface shows the height of the precipitation within the storm as defined by the 10 dBZ isosurface (equivalent to very weak precipitation). The tall towers (in red) near the center of the circulation often indicate further strengthening.

Credit: Hal Pierce (NASA GSFC)/Caption credit: Steve Lang, NASA GSFC

basically its a bar chart of the rain within the storm. as stated in a reply tis is when the hurricane was still a tropical storm.

[MAF]

Just for a little bit of info to those who are unaware, (hopefully not teaching others to suck eggs)

Wilma is the last name on the 2005 official list of storm names. According to the National Hurricane Center, in the event that more than 21 named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and so on.

Storms were first named after women from 1953 until 1979. During 1979, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) added men's names to the list alternating them with women's names. The WMO is an international organization that maintains the official list of names for the upcoming six years.

Absent from the lists are names that begin with the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z, because there are so few of them. Names reappear on lists on six-year cycles, unless "retired" for causing a significant loss of life or property, such as Andrew from 1992, Bob from 1991, and Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne all from the 2004 season.

Of the 21 named storms that have formed since the start of the 2005 hurricane season on June 1, eleven have become hurricanes, including five major hurricanes. This number is far above the average of ten named storms, of which six are hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

For this reason, scientists and forecasters will study the 2005 season for many years to come to assess what factors contributed to its activity. However, NASA research meteorologist Dr. Marshall Shepherd of NASA GSFC says “that it is probably a bit too early to conclusively pinpoint one specific factor.”

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

[Polar Bear]

The eye is gonna be massive when it clears the cloud out!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yup, am with you clear as chrystal from the pic - it doesn't take rocket science heh when you have a good close look. Thanks Mondy again I feel I am learning alot from a good mentor! :unsure:

[Mondy]

Wow...keep playing this: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

Towards the end of the loop, you can see the eye bubbling away...very impressive :blink:

last image on the loop...as daylight approaches over there, this is gonna be a spectcular loop to follow...you can pretty much predict landfall on the Yucatan using it..

edit: Polar bear, don't trust anything i say on here :unsure: ..i'm learning all the time too and just posting what i think is right (or more than likely wrong)!

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[Polar Bear]

This image, taken at the same time as the first image, (click on image to expand) gives a 3D perspective of the system from TRMM The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite took this image . The isosurface shows the height of the precipitation within the storm as defined by the 10 dBZ isosurface (equivalent to very weak precipitation). The tall towers (in red) near the center of the circulation often indicate further strengthening.

Credit: Hal Pierce (NASA GSFC)/Caption credit: Steve Lang, NASA GSFC

basically its a bar chart of the rain within the storm. as stated in a reply tis is when the hurricane was still a tropical storm.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

sesnow - that is really helpful for me - thanks ever so much - it is incredibly interesting when you can see the charts etc. :unsure:

[MAF]

sesnow - that is really helpful for me  - thanks ever so much - it is incredibly interesting when you can see the charts etc.  :unsure:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

data taken from NASA site. very good stuff there.

especially new pics of the planet earth (blue marble)

[matmilne]

the last recorded hurricane was in december wasn't it? that means the season might officially end in november but could go on until the end of december.

incidentally even if it does just last until november the 30 that's 40 days, and at the rate this hurricane formed it only takes 5 days to go from td to cat 5! so plenty time for alpha beta and gamma (there are presently 3 tropical waves on a direct couse for the GOM)

I hope that high slides quickly past florida or else it's a cat 5 for texas, lousianna and poor old new orleans, they should probably evacuate N.O now, the storm surge in that region could be massive. ( isn't it funny how the three greatest storms this year have been named after women even though the names alternate)

I told you all things come in threes.

she is incredibly impressive though, and gonna be a total nightmare for anyone in her path

Edited October 20, 2005 by matmilne

[Polar Bear]

Wow...keep playing this: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

Towards the end of the loop, you can see the eye bubbling away...very impressive :blink:

last image on the loop...as daylight approaches over there, this is gonna be a spectcular loop to follow...you can pretty much predict landfall on the Yucatan using it..

edit: Polar bear, don't trust anything i say on here :unsure: ..i'm learning all the time too and just posting what i think is right (or more than likely wrong)!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

s'ok Mondy I understand and am wiv you. what I should have said is learning from good opinion and it is appreciated right or wrong- I have a feeling though you know rather alot more than i do - enuff said - back to wilma posts.

[MAF]

incidentally even if it does just last until november the 30 that's 40 days, and at the rate this hurricane formed it only takes 5 days to go from td to cat 5!  so plenty time for alpha beta and gamma (there are presently 3 tropical waves on a direct couse for the GOM)

I hope that high slides quickly past florida or else it's a cat 5 for texas, lousianna and poor old new orleans, they should probably evacuate N.O now, the storm surge in that region could be massive.  ( isn't it funny how the three greatest storms this year have been named after women even though the names alternate)

I told you all things come in threes.

she is incredibly impressive though, and gonna be a total nightmare for anyone in her path

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yep, try telling a hurricane it isn't one just because its past 30th november!!

the storm surges are predicted to be between 35-50 feet out at sea so the waves will be crashing into the coasts quite high.

[Polar Bear]

data taken from NASA site. very good stuff there.

especially new pics of the planet earth (blue marble)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

cheersies - have always only had a quick glance as never had longer to have a good old look - I will defo now.

[MAF]

cheersies - have always only had a quick glance as never had longer to have a good old look - I will defo now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

try this

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingat...2005_wilma.html

[matmilne]

is that second band of cloud to the north, much like a hurricane froming one, about to wrap itself around her?

[Polar Bear]

try this

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingat...2005_wilma.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thanks Sesnow - I cant get over this link - brill - I can really see me doing no work this avo :unsure:

oh well! am gonna have a good read to catch up.