Wilma

[crimsone]

given that the scale is based on how much destruction the wind speed causes, and Cat 5 is pretty much all-out devatstation, I think a cat 6 would be a little pointless

no. Just to Cat 5

on another note, the forcast track has come south a little, and they have NO confidence in the track they've produced whatsoever lol

[Mondy]

I'm done!! Been on here all day..(something called "work" tomorrow is scheduled - )

Wife's ignoring me, dog's on my pillow, tea's in the oven - am outta here (all Wilma's fault)!!

Happy posting - Links to loops, radar et all is here.. (tV feed is still hit or miss - will change if Wilma progresses as expected See you about 1pm

[SnowBear]

Night Mondy

[crimsone]

night night

[January Snowstorm]

I'm done!! Been on here all day..(something called "work" tomorrow is scheduled -  )

Wife's ignoring me, dog's on my pillow, tea's in the oven - am outta here (all Wilma's fault)!!

Happy posting  - Links to loops, radar et all is here.. (tV feed is still hit or miss - will change if Wilma progresses as expected See you about 1pm  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well done Mondy!! Your hard work keeping us all updated is very much appreciated.If your wife files for divorce please dont blame us

[crimsone]

Well done Mondy!! Your hard work keeping us all updated is very much appreciated.If your wife files for divorce please dont blame us     

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LMAO! well lets hope that one doesn't happen, eh?

[SnowBear]

885

SXXX50 KNHC 192132

AF300 0824A WILMA HDOB 47 KNHC

2121 1705N 08435W 03048 0004 325 059 088 088 060 03100 0000000000

2121. 1706N 08434W 03044 0000 325 061 088 086 063 03092 0000000000

2122 1707N 08432W 03046 5004 325 064 088 084 065 03091 0000000000

2122. 1708N 08431W 03045 5008 325 065 090 080 066 03085 0000000000

2123 1709N 08429W 03047 5013 324 065 092 074 065 03082 0000000000

2123. 1710N 08428W 03045 5017 324 065 090 072 065 03076 0000000000

2124 1711N 08426W 03046 5021 323 066 096 072 067 03073 0000000000

2124. 1712N 08425W 03044 5026 326 070 096 084 071 03066 0000000000

2125 1712N 08423W 03048 5032 325 070 088 088 070 03064 0000000000

2125. 1713N 08422W 03044 5039 325 070 086 086 070 03054 0000000000

2126 1714N 08420W 03047 5044 323 071 090 090 072 03051 0000000000

2126. 1715N 08419W 03045 5051 323 073 104 088 075 03042 0000000000

2127 1716N 08417W 03046 5059 324 078 104 096 080 03035 0000000000

2127. 1717N 08416W 03045 5068 324 080 110 102 080 03025 0000000000

2128 1718N 08414W 03047 5081 325 081 100 100 081 03014 0000000000

2128. 1719N 08413W 03048 5092 322 079 094 094 080 03004 0000000000

2129 1720N 08411W 03043 5103 321 082 084 084 085 02989 0000000000

2129. 1721N 08410W 03046 5116 324 090 080 080 091 02978 0000000000

2130 1722N 08409W 03050 5132 328 092 082 082 093 02966 0000000000

2130. 1722N 08407W 03045 5143 330 078 094 094 085 02950 0000000000

Sustained 092 knts

[SMU]

LMAO! well lets hope that one doesn't happen, eh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Evening All-

Well I did say last night I thought it was ghonna bomb... but bloody hell-

Some of you may remember me talking yesterday about the phasing of the pacific trough and causing devestation in the North east-

I was going to pass further comment on this based on the 12z runs but one of my colleagues has already blogged it-

Phase blog

S

[SnowBear]

It bombed alright Steve, I reckon on 101mb in 24 hours which beats even the Pacific record of 100mb !

[SnowBear]

Through they go again

555

SXXX50 KNHC 192142

AF300 0824A WILMA HDOB 48 KNHC

2131 1723N 08406W 03048 5155 327 069 098 098 072 02941 0000000000

2131. 1724N 08404W 03039 5168 326 067 112 112 068 02918 0000000000

2132 1725N 08403W 03046 5177 326 066 116 116 068 02916 0000000000

2132. 1726N 08401W 03046 5186 325 059 122 114 060 02907 0000000000

2133 1727N 08400W 03046 5196 329 058 126 114 059 02897 0000000000

2133. 1728N 08358W 03046 5207 327 059 126 110 059 02887 0000000000

2134 1729N 08357W 03045 5219 324 058 132 106 059 02873 0000000000

2134. 1730N 08355W 03046 5231 321 054 136 102 054 02863 0000000000

2135 1731N 08354W 03045 5242 320 051 134 102 052 02851 0000000000

2135. 1732N 08352W 03044 5253 321 049 136 096 050 02838 0000000000

2136 1733N 08351W 03047 5264 318 046 134 084 048 02830 0000000000

2136. 1734N 08349W 03046 5278 315 052 140 080 054 02815 0000000000

2137 1735N 08348W 03046 5296 312 058 140 078 061 02797 0000000000

2137. 1736N 08346W 03051 5325 309 067 136 096 069 02773 0000000000

2138 1737N 08344W 03044 5369 302 076 132 124 081 02723 0000000000

2138. 1738N 08343W 03052 5444 293 095 134 134 102 02655 0000000000

2139 1740N 08342W 03057 5617 287 112 124 124 114 02486 0000000000

2139. 1741N 08341W 03011 5831 270 049 150 150 091 02226 0000110010

2140 1743N 08341W 02897 5885 099 013 174 174 024 02058 0000000000

2140. 1745N 08341W 02993 5828 081 080 168 168 118 02211 0000000000

Blue Sustained

Red Max Gust

Both in knots

[smich]

Before we all go to bed, what the is that last NHC Discussion saying?!

The track guidance models are all over the place! The GFDL has changed it's mind from a 5 day position off Maine, to a 5 day position off the western tip of Cuba! That's a difference of 1650 nautical miles!

I honestly believe Wilma could go just about anywhere!

What a truly terrific day of Hurricane watching - don't forget, before the www, we would first be hearing about this storm tomorrow!

Can't wait to log on tomorrow morning....

Smich

[SnowBear]

007

SXXX50 KNHC 192152

AF300 0824A WILMA HDOB 49 KNHC

2141 1746N 08342W 02991 5630 079 139 126 126 143 02408 0000000000

2141. 1748N 08342W 03047 5488 082 127 116 116 133 02606 0000000000

2142 1749N 08342W 03059 5414 088 111 136 136 117 02691 0000000000

2142. 1749N 08341W 03050 5380 095 101 156 120 102 02717 0000000000

2143 1750N 08340W 03040 5372 104 099 156 120 101 02715 0000000000

2143. 1751N 08339W 03049 5344 112 093 148 122 095 02752 0000000000

2144 1751N 08338W 03041 5315 118 088 136 112 089 02772 0000000000

2144. 1753N 08337W 03045 5290 121 082 138 084 084 02802 0000000000

2145 1754N 08336W 03045 5270 125 075 138 080 077 02822 0000000000

2145. 1755N 08334W 03039 5255 127 070 140 078 071 02831 0000000000

2146 1756N 08333W 03049 5244 131 070 132 088 071 02853 0000000000

2146. 1757N 08332W 03043 5232 133 069 132 088 069 02859 0000000000

2147 1758N 08330W 03047 5221 131 069 116 104 070 02874 0000000000

2147. 1759N 08329W 03043 5208 130 078 108 108 083 02883 0000000000

2148 1800N 08328W 03045 5199 126 084 104 104 086 02894 0000000000

2148. 1801N 08327W 03047 5191 130 085 092 092 086 02904 0000000000

2149 1802N 08326W 03048 5175 133 089 092 092 089 02921 0000000000

2149. 1803N 08324W 03043 5162 136 093 094 094 093 02929 0000000000

2150 1804N 08323W 03046 5148 138 095 096 096 095 02946 0000000000

2150. 1806N 08322W 03042 5137 140 095 102 102 097 02953 0000000000

Blue Sustained

Red Max Gust

Both in knots

[SnowBear]

000

URNT12 KNHC 192158

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 19/21:39:30Z

B. 17 deg 42 min N

083 deg 41 min W

C. 700 mb 2149 m

D. 75 kt

E. 223 deg 009 nm

F. 287 deg 114 kt

G. 203 deg 002 nm

H. 892 mb

I. 13 C/ 3064 m

J. 16 C/ 2962 m

K. 16 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C4Eye 4nm /circular

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 25

MAX FL WIND 149 KT W QUAD 19:57:30 Z

Edited October 19, 2005 by SnowBear

[*Stormforce~beka*]

My goodness - How Im amazed! how this has grown since Monday!!! I have just spent a good housr and a half at least reading the rest of the old thread then catching up on this one ... phew im tierd and ready for bed now LOL.

[frogesque]

Night all, thanks for the informative and fascinating day.

Sweet dreams courtesy of the NRL

[SnowBear]

Night frogesque

An amazing image there !

[P.K.]

Blue Sustained

Red Max Gust

Both in knots

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

They are 30 second sustained winds, whereas the advisories use 1 minute sustained winds. The second wind reading is the max 10 second measurement.

[SnowBear]

Thanks very much P.K. !

Will adjust accordingly

(Good to see you back on the hurricane thread btw! )

[crimsone]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

The image shifts position. as it stands at the moment, if you omit all but the last three images (check all the other boxes but the last three) does it look like the ERW is about to end with the emergence of the new eye?

[crimsone]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

The image shifts position. as it stands at the moment, if you omit all but the last three images (check all the other boxes but the last three) does it look like the ERW is about to end with the emergence of the new eye?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think time has answered the question for me - no. The storm center is still plugged with cloud. Interestingly, the pinhole center is still visible, but as a lower level of cloud inside a larger eye. The larger eye itself is becoming very rough on the sat image and seems to be constricting at least a little.

as an aside, what are the odds on TD 26-E making it all the way accross the pacific? NHC call it an enigma for not being able to sustain good convection. WHat amases me is that it's been going since a few days before wilma even formed as a depression, and when wilma formed it was forcast to die. It's still hanging on out there though! (tahts a subject for a new thread though, and as everyones watching Wilma, I thought I'd mention it as a little thought on the side )

[crimsone]

Discussion 19 confirms the possibility of Steves phasing theory - seems to be one of a few distinct probabilities now rather than an F.I. scenario. It also has a fe interesting things to say about Wilma, like the fact that the satellite shows her eye filled with cloud (only now they've noticed!?!?) and EWR is expected in the nest 12-24 hours. Forcast track has shifted slightly, but still significantly in favour of a S.Florida landfall.

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N

MI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT.

SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME

CLOUD-FILLED.  ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE

INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES

BETTER DEFINED.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED

TO 135 KT.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA

AROUND 05Z-06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY WOBBLY 300/7.  IN THE SHORT TERM...A

LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF WILMA SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A

GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER

24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES

THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF

A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. S..  THE FIRST

SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW WILMA TO TURN NORTHWARD...WHILE THE STRONGER

TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RECURVE THE STORM INTO THE WESTERLIES.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR EARLIER

NO-STALL RECURVATURE SCENARIO...THUS INCREASING THE AGREEMENT

BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH 72-96 HR.  HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF

GUIDANCE IS SLOWER FOR THE FIRST 96 HR THAN THE EARLIER RUNS.  THE

NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48

HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 48-96 HR.

HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLOWER FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL

CONSENSUS.

WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT

12-24 HR.  THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON

THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER.

THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST

BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE THE

GULF OF MEXICO.  THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THAT BEING SAID...WILMA IS STILL

EXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  AFTER PASSAGE OVER

FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN

COOLER WATER.  THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE

DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA.  THE FIRST IS THE

POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE

PENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH.  A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT

IN A WEAKER STORM...WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE

THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR.  SHOULD

THIS HAPPEN...WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE

WESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U. S..

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0300Z 18.1N  84.3W   135 KT

12HR VT     20/1200Z 18.8N  85.2W   135 KT

24HR VT     21/0000Z 19.8N  86.0W   145 KT

36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.8N  86.5W   145 KT

48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.8N  86.6W   125 KT

72HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N  84.5W   110 KT

96HR VT     24/0000Z 27.0N  80.0W    80 KT

120HR VT     25/0000Z 38.0N  70.5W    65 KT

$$

And with that, good night all See you tomorrow....

Let me know if anything interesting happens. lol

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[Stuart]

it down to a cat 4 now

[kold weather]

yep and infact its probably only a weak at-4 considering reports from recon over the last few hours,as I said before its not really the pressure that is majorly affected but the windspeeds.Pressure as of the last recon is about 899mbs,with borderline cat-3/4 winds.So what this means is once it does finish its eyewall replacement cycle,expect it to once again go down to about 890mbs,maybe not quite as low as before though.

(ps,any eyewall replacement will expand the windfield,infact TS winds extend larger then even Katrina's now)

Edited October 20, 2005 by kold weather

[Sue Bates]

  Fire away!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is obviously as stupid question but forgive me please, I am a girl; Why on earth can't they fly over the top of this dreadful thing and drop some bombs on it and, indeed, any others, before it reaches land???

Sensible discussion please don't just take the p**s

[SnowBear]

Morning folks

And your answer Sue

Subject: C5c) Why don't we try to destroy tropical cyclones by nuking them ?

Contributed by Chris Landsea

During each hurricane season, there always appear suggestions that one should simply use nuclear weapons to try and destroy the storms. Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.

Now for a more rigorous scientific explanation of why this would not be an effective hurricane modification technique. The main difficulty with using explosives to modify hurricanes is the amount of energy required. A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20x1013 watts and converts less than 10% of the heat into the mechanical energy of the wind. The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at a rate of 1013 watts in 1990, a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane.

If we think about mechanical energy, the energy at humanity's disposal is closer to the storm's, but the task of focusing even half of the energy on a spot in the middle of a remote ocean would still be formidable. Brute force interference with hurricanes doesn't seem promising.

In addition, an explosive, even a nuclear explosive, produces a shock wave, or pulse of high pressure, that propagates away from the site of the explosion somewhat faster than the speed of sound. Such an event doesn't raise the barometric pressure after the shock has passed because barometric pressure in the atmosphere reflects the weight of the air above the ground. For normal atmospheric pressure, there are about ten metric tons (1000 kilograms per ton) of air bearing down on each square meter of surface. In the strongest hurricanes there are nine. To change a Category 5 hurricane into a Category 2 hurricane you would have to add about a half ton of air for each square meter inside the eye, or a total of a bit more than half a billion (500,000,000) tons for a 20 km radius eye. It's difficult to envision a practical way of moving that much air around.

Attacking weak tropical waves or depressions before they have a chance to grow into hurricanes isn't promising either. About 80 of these disturbances form every year in the Atlantic basin, but only about 5 become hurricanes in a typical year. There is no way to tell in advance which ones will develop. If the energy released in a tropical disturbance were only 10% of that released in a hurricane, it's still a lot of power, so that the hurricane police would need to dim the whole world's lights many times a year.

Source:http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html