Wilma

[crimsone]

They're probably totally unaware there was a Hurricane around and probably think you're some nut ringing up larking around. I bet the Girl was going round the office going whats the Flintstones got to do with a Hurricane. Blank looks and someone found an old article about Rita and quoted you that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

he he! if that's true you might as well have phoned up and said "The sky is falling down! the sky is falling down, and we're off to go to Florida"...

... though I suppose that could be technically true, but they probably wouldn't have seen the funny side of it.

[Hurricane Debby]

Very Funny Pit !! And so true !

[SnowBear]

To be honest Sunshine_Gal, you should phone your Travel Agents HQ, ask for the CEO, and ask why the heck his/her company didnt know about Wilma, its lives at stake and his/her company should make it their business to know the very latest.

[Mondy]

You can clearly see the eyewall replacement taking place now on the visible loop (other page with the links on it has it) - wonder if it'll do a Rita and take an age to complete?

Still waiting on Recon..going SW to NE this time through the eye...

[The PIT]

To be honest Sunshine_Gal, you should phone your Travel Agents HQ, ask for the CEO, and ask why the heck his/her company didnt know about Wilma, its lives at stake and his/her company should make it their business to know the very latest.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

True and I bet if you went out there unknowingly and tried to claim compensation they'll soon have all the facts to say it wasn't there fault.

Anyone know hows the eye rebuilding going on???

[conor123]

Remember Hurricane Rita

It grew to a category 5 monster with 175mph

then slowly died out.

Wilma will probably hit land as a category 3 storm

with a lot of rain causing flooding.

It's so typical that it's started weakening

[Mondy]

Ok. The below chart is info taken from the nearest buoy to Wilma..impressive reading.

Buoy 42056

[SnowBear]

880

SXXX50 KNHC 192002

AF300 0824A WILMA HDOB 38 KNHC

1951 1739N 08336W 03028 5855 095 038 172 168 051 02219 0000000000

1951. 1737N 08337W 03051 5839 004 050 182 158 070 02258 0000000000

1952 1735N 08337W 03046 5735 301 114 140 140 141 02358 0000110110

1952. 1733N 08335W 03097 5503 260 114 118 118 127 02641 0000000100

1953 1732N 08333W 03216 5381 242 096 098 098 103 02883 0000000100

1953. 1731N 08331W 03152 5320 236 081 122 118 085 02880 0000000000

1954 1730N 08331W 03094 5292 239 072 132 098 075 02850 0000000000

1954. 1731N 08332W 03098 5317 237 074 128 108 077 02829 0000000000

1955 1732N 08333W 03052 5378 232 086 128 120 090 02721 0000000000

1955. 1734N 08334W 03051 5475 231 100 124 124 109 02623 0000000000

1956 1735N 08335W 03055 5683 228 112 126 126 125 02419 0000000000

1956. 1736N 08336W 03028 5854 219 023 166 166 049 02220 0000000000

1957 1737N 08337W 03045 5862 034 025 164 164 044 02229 0000000000

1957. 1738N 08339W 03033 5740 023 115 150 150 149 02339 0000000100

1958 1738N 08341W 03050 5507 017 125 122 122 137 02590 0000000100

1958. 1738N 08343W 03052 5391 013 108 120 120 114 02708 0000000000

1959 1738N 08345W 03049 5330 012 096 120 120 098 02766 0000000000

1959. 1738N 08346W 03046 5290 015 088 130 096 092 02804 0000000000

2000 1739N 08348W 03044 5263 015 079 130 090 081 02829 0000000000

2000. 1739N 08350W 03045 5245 015 074 130 088 075 02847 0000000000

Max sustained, 125knts

Max gust, 149knts

If I am reading the data correct, a double eyewall

Edited October 19, 2005 by SnowBear

[Mondy]

149kts wind speed in the NE sector

[kold weather]

I'm not being funny but considering it was at one stage 882mbs and the storgest hurricane ever there was only one way it could go in terms of pressure and that was up,esp as it was just about at its max MPI possible and so it had to undergo a eyewall replacement cycle which reduces its winds back down to a lower percent of it's MPI,and fairly often it'll go bac kup again providing the SSt's and general heat content remains similar during that time otherwise if it decreases to much another eyewlal replacement cycle wil lstart as I've said several times.

and besides even if it does make landfall as a cat-3,thats still mighty strong.In the short term once the eye clears out again,just watch this start to drop again in pressure,probably will reach about 920mbs before finishing its eyewall replacement then dropping to around 890mbs again,thats what I thin kfor the next 24hrs or so,not certain though by any means and once into the gulf of mexico a slow but steady weakening into a cat-3 just before landfall should occur as atmopsheric condtions get worse and SST's just drop of a little.

Snowbear,it does seem to have a double wind-max at present which bavks up the satilte image which suggests a eyewall replacement is occring like I thought during the afternoon.

Edited October 19, 2005 by kold weather

[Mondy]

892mb!

Vortex Data Message

000

URNT12 KNHC 192017

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 19/19:56:20Z

B. 17 deg 36 min N

083 deg 36 min W

C. 700 mb 2152 m

D. 65 kt

E. 122 deg 010 nm

F. 285 deg 141 kt

G. 201 deg 002 nm

H. 892 mb

I. 12 C/ 3059 m

J. 19 C/ 3051 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. CO5-10

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF300 0824A Wilma OB 18

MAX FL WIND 141 KT S QUAD 19:52:00 Z

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[SnowBear]

Vortex data says max flight level wind is 141knts, yet I saw 149knts in the raw data, strange

[crimsone]

I think even if this storm lands as a Cat3, what will be particularly significant about it will be it's size. As it interacts with a low along it's track, the NHC seem to think the rang for TS winds will get even wider as it "thins out" - less precipitation but more wind.

Because of its size, the winds will last longer, and so so just as much damage as a smaller but stronger storm. If the eye heads over that lake, it's going to hurt, and furthermore, the storm surge on either side of florida could be massive.

Wilma has already officially killed at least 11 people, and if it hits florida as currently forecast, I really do fear that it will catch those leaving it to the last minute completely unawares, and will do some real damage. If it goes over the Keys, They'll be totally swamped and it may even wipe the road out. At least enough damage to have the name retired from the list.

I really hope that I'm talking about a wort case scenario here

Edited October 19, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

What gets me is that although the eye is now closed or filled, still reading 892mb in pressure...

I honestly believe today, Wilma recorded sub-870, but recon weren't there to observe it!

[summer blizzard]

I wonder, is it possible that Hurricane Rita could become a annular hurricane if the new eye is a big and more stable one, or will Hurricane Rita once agin form a small eye and have another crack at the world record?????????????????

[kold weather]

As I said about a hour ago,I didn't think pressure would already be at 900mbs as the eye really has only filled recently.In eyewall replacements the winds tend to be effected more easily and quicker then the pressure and although it does usual go down after time it can stil lstay very low even when winds should suggest pressure to be higher,I remember Rita had pressure of 902mbs but winds of just 145mph when it tried to have a EWR.

I suspect that pressure will rise more although the winds will probably level out at cat-4,once the process is complete look for pressure to go down first.

In terms of peak pressure,I have very few doubts this went sub-880mbs during the gap between recons,extrapolated actually had pressure at 881mbs,although the NHC upped that to 882mbs.

(ps,SB don't you mean Wilma... )

Edited October 19, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

The chances of Rita becoming Annular?

probably more chance of being hit by a bus while sailing through the north sea in a blizzard.

Still, maybe next time around?

[Mondy]

I wonder, is it possible that Hurricane Rita could become a annular hurricane if the new eye is a big and more stable one, or will Hurricane Rita once agin form a small eye and have another crack at the world record?????????????????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I truly hope you mean Wilma? Confusing, i know All these storms ending in 'A -

Alpha, Beta and Gamma next

Aside, i'm going with SBears's link he provided on the Wilma links thread as to where Wilma goes : http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_height9

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[SnowBear]

I'm actually wondering how many more windows I can get open before I have a Windows Environment Replacement (reboot) to be honest!!

[Mondy]

lol SB

Back on topic, the National hurricane centre is soon to be holding an "unscheduled" Press conference

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[Adi F]

I have only just got in from work so have not read through today's posts so i apologise if this has already been mentioned but i Was emailed this article

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051019/ts_nm/weather_wilma_dc

"Hurricane Wilma became the fiercest Atlantic hurricane ever seen"

Edited October 19, 2005 by Adi F

[Mondy]

5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC

CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO

CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO

SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF

MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF

YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...

460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A

TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS

INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15

INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN

ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5

TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH

THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH

ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS

NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Edited October 19, 2005 by Mondy

[matmilne]

hi all

i just checked and had to check again, cat 5! this time yesterday it was cat 2.

well it beats gilbert that's for sure. can she achieve cat 6 or will she drop back down again? who knows, keep watching. I hope this is the last hurricane of the season, nice to go out with a real bang.

[Callie]

hi all

  can she achieve cat 6 or will she drop back down again?  who knows, keep watching. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Umm sorry but I don't think the Saffir-Simpson scale goes above 5?? But either way Wilma is one huge storm!

Callie

[SnowBear]

Latest Wilma discussion at NHC

000

WTNT44 KNHC 192106

TCDAT4

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE

06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA

RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN

EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI

FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF

THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME

SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE

GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN

MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND

THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA

DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA

CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL

CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE

TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892

MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

LOWERED TO 140 KT.  AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER

5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS...

ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS.  IN THE SHORT

TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND

FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO

REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN.  WITH AN INCREASING

POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE

YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE

GULF OF MEXICO. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN