Wilma

[SMU]

Have look around 12n,54w but watch a loop don't just take an image. I think it's bound for the 'warm water loop' south of Cuba and the system already seems busy even before this 'pepping up' takes place.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Here is what a full phase will look like-

Phase

And here are the current just updated tracks...

These are the ones to observe for accuracy- as they handle phasing better

GFDI GFTI GFDL CONU NGPI

Steve

[Polar Bear]

Have look around 12n,54w but watch a loop don't just take an image. I think it's bound for the 'warm water loop' south of Cuba and the system already seems busy even before this 'pepping up' takes place.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

cool thanks GW will do :unsure:

[Kain]

Means she so close to land, will the drag be an issue with her strengthening/weakening?

Kain

[kold weather]

looks like its beocming more north-south allinged now,the same way Katrina went before turning more to the north,I suspect this is the first indication that it may try to start a rapid turn to the north-east across the Gulf and making landfall sometime during Saturday and moving much faster as its steering currents become way more established.

Pressure is currently at 910mbs wyhich is still very good and at a match with Ivan at its strongest,max winds according to the NHC at 145mph although recon shows it may be a little weaker then that at present,probably at 135mph however there is some colder tops now forming around the eyewall.Anyway it doesn't matter because it will come mighty close to Yucatan,although I suspect it may only make a short landfall period and only weaken the system slightly.The second landfall is much more intresting.GFDL pushes the system very quickly across Florida which although means less risk of flooding it will have very little weakening occuring,esp if it goes over the same area as Katrina did.

I still think a similar landfall as before,it will have some shear from the front induced onto it but I would think with such a large system it'll be able to handle itslef quite well in shear and I'm still thinking a strong cat-3 at 130-125 landfall near Punta Gorda,which isn't to far off from where GFDL takes it in the end but I think maybe slightly more north.It's track will probably take it somewhere between NE/ENE depending on how far the trough digs down.This will quite possibly cause the Miami area to be in the South-eastern eyewall and deifnatly has a fair shot at getting category-1 winds at least considering how braod the wind-field is at the moment(90miles for hurricane winds)

By the weay watch the cente rof this system,a eye may well briefly pop again soon despite anothe routerwall starting to form.Land interaction may occur and you may well see some good convective systems fire up on the outer bands as the friction increases thanks to the land interaction.Will it make landfall on Yucatan,probably just but with the system now more N-S,watch this system,it'll starting to turn very shortly and recent loops suggests that may have just started.

[matmilne]

with 4 tropical waves now waltzing in alpha is inevitable.

as for wilma, just how much worse could this thing get, it was a cat 5 before it got anywhere near the warmest parts of the gulf, florida still looks likely with most tracks over it. what areas will that storm surge hit?

[Polar Bear]

i am stupid - so can anyone circle where alpha is for me I know mondy you sent a view of all the TS's but my system didn't display it very clearly - sorry to be a pain

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

got it - flippin eck

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks Steve M.

All of the tracks you highlighted show this very stern turn. Does this mean that the system will stall and then set off in a different direction?

I can see the ridge of H.P. that traces out the corner that the models want her to take but if she carries on travelling NNW at 7kmph I just can't see her being able to execute that angle of turn. Can you wise me up on the mechanics of the steering currents which could do this?

[matmilne]

take a look at this, see the second system developing in the south east

[londonsnow]

the latest. a central pressure of 915mb now and still a cat 4

000

WTNT34 KNHC 201442

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE YUCATAN...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE

HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL. A HURRICANE WARNING IS

NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE

WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM

WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE

BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA

HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF

YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE

PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE

ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170

MILES... 275 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH

SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...

PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN

ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.4 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[Mondy]

My thoughts again By interacting with the Yucatan Pennisula it is VERY good news for Florida. Maybe looking at a strong Cat 1/Cat 2 storm now at landfall, which will be significantly weaker than forecasted. Or it could possibly even stall out on the Yucatan and then it would just be a rain event by the time the trough accerelates itself towards the pennisula. Then again, that could be rubbiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

However, if she does turn due north around now, i honestly believe a Cat 3 or 4 landfall for Florida.

Based on the latest IR loops, Wilma is still heading in a general WNW direction and I think she will continue on this motion for the next 6-12 hours. This will have her making first landfall just south of Cozumel, Mexico.

[crimsone]

Um, this caught my eye. Just wondering where you heard this, and are they talking about the Maritime provinces?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just to quickly say to Cassarah that I got it from the GFDL forecst that Mondy posted.

[Mondy]

take a look at this, see the second system developing in the south east

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The NHC aren't bothered about it

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL

WAVE LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THIS

SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT

EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

[kold weather]

Trough seemingly digging own now and the ridge is definatly moving of to the east now with.This means in the long run that the turn should get going shortly and this is also backed up by it starting to take on a more N=S apperance.It'll probably not turn fast enough to miss the Yucatan completely and I reckon it'll probably spend a good 6-8hrs overland which will probably know it down by about 25mph.

I'd have thought that a general turn should contniue over the next few hours,I'll get up the chart that shows the trough feature nicely and the ridge moving to the east shortly.Also a new eye is definatly seeming to form at the moment with dry slots appearing as the eyewall replacement cycle is nearly over now and the new eye should with any luck poke out in the next 6hrs or so and it probably will have time to get stronger again before making landfall in Yucatan somewhere whilst at the same time shifting more and more to the north-east:

Edited October 20, 2005 by kold weather

[SMU]

Thanks Steve M.

                All of the tracks you highlighted show this very stern turn. Does this mean that the system will stall and then set off in a different direction?

I can see the ridge of H.P. that traces out the corner that the models want her to take but if she carries on travelling NNW at 7kmph I just can't see her being able to execute that angle of turn. Can you wise me up on the mechanics of the steering currents which could do this?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

HI GW-

I havent spent much time looking at Wilma Today- been on the Winter section-

The current track is as Mondy says a dirct hit on Cozumel ( Slightly west of NHC predictions)- the Upper level ridge will begin to weaken and allow the turn away from the Yucatan-

If there is a direct hit in the Yucatan especially further south where there is higher terrain then Wilma will struggle and may be severely downgraded- which will be good news for Florida-

However a little furtehr east across the water and she will escape unscathed- Its a margin of error of only a 100 miles or so....

Also the ERC is pretty much complete now- look for a re-opening of the eye and re-intensification back to Possible Cat 5 status-

Also watch for a slowdown of forward motion- a precursor to a change in direction....

Such a close call this one...

S

[crimsone]

Wilma's certainly keeping me on the edge of my seat! I don't know about anybody else...

[londonsnow]

Wilma's certainly keeping me on the edge of my seat! I don't know about anybody else...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i've fallen off mine

[kold weather]

yep indeed Wilma is,as Steve has said it'll be close,esp as a few models want to stall tthis system neaby the Yucatan,if that happens either way it'll weaken,either by land or upwelling of water as the SSt's cool beneath such a large system and it reduces its own max MPI.

however I'm not hooked on that and the ridge is heading eastwards quite nicely and the trough is indeed well and present,so I can see the NHC track and the other models being quite close to the mark really.(ps,by the way as Steve said,watch for a slow down in speed,this usually means that a turn is about to occur as it picks up a new steering current)

[Cassarah]

Just to quickly say to Cassarah that I got it from the GFDL forecst that Mondy posted.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks!

[Mondy]

Webcams(Cancun) up on other page. Ok-ish

[Mondy]

For Gw: Wilma's steering currents

[Mondy]

Image taken from the Yucatan radar..first wave of clouds from Wilma approaching.

Should see the eye (if it hurries up and forms)! on this soon..

[Mondy]

Seems i keep repying to myself

Still no visible north turn... http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

[conor123]

I knew it would die out a bit.

Is it still cat 4 ???

Once the new eye forms it may strengthen to a cat 5 again

[Mondy]

Hi,mate..yeah still Cat 4, but i don't think the eye will have time to form properly now as it nears landfall

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[crimsone]

It could still suprise us yet and miss - I doubt it but it wouldn't be the first suprise it's given us!