Wilma

[crimsone]

I can't believe what's before my eyes! very impressive!

Look at the way Wilma is just slicing through that dry air as she throws her outflow over Florida! You can see the brown stream crash against her in the loop! very impressive! SUrley this force against her will have at least some steering influence?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html - gulf vapour

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html - atlantic vapour

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[I can't believe it's not better]

From that buoy data RJS posted earlier wave heights are going up rapidly.[url=

www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056]

Over 10 metres now.

Edited October 21, 2005 by I can't believe it's not better

[I can't believe it's not better]

Was watching this visible . Seems to stop at nightfall. Something's happening with the eye.

Edit: maybe it's shadow.

Edited October 21, 2005 by I can't believe it's not better

[I can't believe it's not better]

Doesn't look like it's going through the gap.

[Typhoon John]

I still can't comprehend the possibility of 40 inches of rainfall. To me that means a permanent reshaping of the landscape. I can't think of anything similar apart from Honduras some years ago when rivers were given totally new flows.

[Roger J Smith]

That 40 inches of rain forecast is dependent on the track verifying. Right now the official track is for a very slow crawl up the Yucatan coast, then a slow eastward crawl along the north coast of Cuba, pulling away slowly towards the Keys. If Wilma doesn't slow down this much, the 20-40 inch rainfall forecast for western Cuba (where it's fairly hilly) will be reduced to a more manageable 5-10 inches.

Here's another link for you to track Wilma, the Cancun Mexico radar. Press your reload as it does not load up automatically on real time. The time shown is UTC or z.

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

I don't know if it's my imagination, but Wilma seems to be trying to avoid hitting land and just seems to be heading for the northeast tip of the Yucatan. The global models are entirely all over the map now, and the National Hurricane Centre is taking the approach of saying, look, we don't really know, here's a track we need to put out there in case the thing hits Florida on Sunday or Monday, but maybe it won't. I think it will, because it doesn't seem to be heading very far inland if at all, and there's quite a strong short wave over Missouri right now that is making a valiant effort to pick up Wilma and bring her along towards the northeast. But anything's possible, the steering currents are weak. There is no blocking over the Gulf to speak of on the 00z maps, and there's something about the appearance of the hurricane that says "I don't plan to slow down." Rather subjective, but we shall see.

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 10:45 pm EDT, October 20, 2005

NO MAJOR CHANGES ON WILMA AS YUCATAN BRACES FOR MAJOR IMPACT- FLORIDA CONTINUES TO WAIT

This will be a fairly short update tonight since there is no major news to report. Wilma is about on track- perhaps slightly east of where the models suggested it would be- but the end game remains the same: a landfall along the Yucatan with devastating results. That should take place some time tomorrow night. Then, the hurricane will slowly make its way off of the peninsula and in to the Gulf of Mexico. At that point, Florida will be under the gun. The current forecast shows Wilma hitting land perhaps on Monday. Timing is hard to pin down right now- but Floridians need to be ready- and this extra time will help. We can worry more about intensity once Wilma begins the move to the east and north- it is too tough to know exactly how strong, or weak, the hurricane will be once it hits Florida. People should prepare for the worst- period. I am in Naples with James Lewis- our new crew member- and will be joined by Mike Watkins on Saturday. We will be working with Collier County tomorrow and throughout the event. Mike Watkins will provide updates concerning the southeast coast of Florida starting tomorrow evening. This is going to be a drawn out event- but once Wilma makes the move towards Florida, weather conditions will go downhill in a hurry. Be ready. It appears that people all along the SW coast of Florida are taking this seriously. That is good to see, it really is. I will have more in the morning.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[Hurricane Debby]

Hurricane Wilma Slams Mexico Resorts

http://www.wanadoo.co.uk/news/national/sto...ticle=KNE837110

[Gray-Wolf]

Morning all I take it with her at 930mb we can expect a little deepening later today, she may well go to Cat5 but I can't see her reaching her earlier pressure min (esp. if she glances the land).....we shall see!!

[kold weather]

It's going to mighty close as to whether its going to make landfall over the Yucatan as it looks like its starting to pull away to the NNW now and its eye may turn up to be about 10 miles east of the forecast point,and considering the forecast point has this system just onshore,it may well make all the difference,for those near the coast though it's quite likely they will still get the western eyewall or at least a fair amount of the western quadrant,although the actul storm may just pull to the east it masy well slow down as the trough to the north continues to move to the east and so it just slows down,where is key as to what its strength will be,over land and it'll be a much weaker system but over sea and it will be okay.It'll then have to wait for a little while unti lthe nexty trough comes in from the west(I'll get a image up later of it) and finally kicks it eastwards.Forecast track after that has shifted slightly further southwards but I still feel that Punta gorda and Charlotte Harbour but it could still go further south,as far south as the keys is most definatly at risk and we won't have a better idea until it actually does kae the Ne/ENE turn that has been predicted for days now.

In terms of strength,I'm suprised that last night recon had found that pressure had still gone up,this time to 930mbs.I suspect that the eyewall was still open and hadn't closed of although this looks to have been done now at last.Winds have remained at 150mph but I still get the feeling we could reach category-5 again.The main reason i feel this is the satilite representation does look much better,gone is that tight pinhole eye and now we have a more classic large eye which you get with major hurricanes generally.The eye itslef looks more healthy and all the cloud has now cleared out of there and now the eyewall is gaining colder cloud tops which although is perfectly normal at this time of the day over there(night-time cools the clouds down)

As for strength longer term,this strongly depends on several factors,how well it handles the shear that will be induced on it as it crosses the gulf,how strong it can get over the next 24hrs and the most important one must be whether it stays on land for any large amount of time.Still at least voer the next 24hrs until landfall expect its central pressure to drop and maybe do just enough to get back upto category-5.After that it'll probably re-emerge into the Gulf as a borderline cat-3/4 and contniue ENE as a slowly weakening as shear and lower MPI starts to take its toll,however I think NHC are rather under-estimating its possible strength at landflal,I'd still think it could be a cat-3 at landfall,although ther eis scope for it to be nothing more then a strong TS/cat-1 if it stays for more then 24hrs over Yucatan,but at least at the moment I have a hard time believeing GFDL's forecast of that happening and prefer to think that it may slow down off-shore considering its already NNW motion.

Edited October 21, 2005 by kold weather

[Brrr]

Hi Guys,

Some nice links in this report - follow the link to the Nasa site has some really good images of Wilma (I don't know if someone else has posted those - if they have my apologies).

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-5905324.html

(Edit: Some nice stuff, radar etc. on stormtrack too...

stormtrack )

And again - looking at the latest visible loop at NHC Wilma looks as if her eye might just miss land..... any thoughts?

Edited October 21, 2005 by Brrr

[Gray-Wolf]

Looking at the last 2 frames of the vis sat loop she (from looking at my 'edge of paper') moves NW initially but then the last 2 frames has her either due north or even NNE. It may be her being a little 'trochoidal' (oh how I like that word!) in motion or that her rate of turn has increased. She may miss Yukatan, at least her centre may, and thats good news for her but bad news for Florida!!

[Brrr]

Looking at the last 2 frames of the vis sat loop she (from looking at my 'edge of paper') moves NW initially but then the last 2 frames has her either due north or even NNE. It may be her being a little 'trochoidal' (oh how I like that word!) in motion or that her rate of turn has increased. She may miss Yukatan, at least her centre may, and thats good news for her but bad news for Florida!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree - there's def a Northerly jog now.. and if you look at the forecast points on the visible they are to the East of where the eye appears to be heading!

Bad news indeed for Florida...

[Hurricane Debby]

Looking at the last 2 frames of the vis sat loop she (from looking at my 'edge of paper') moves NW initially but then the last 2 frames has her either due north or even NNE. It may be her being a little 'trochoidal' (oh how I like that word!) in motion or that her rate of turn has increased. She may miss Yukatan, at least her centre may, and thats good news for her but bad news for Florida!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ooh good word Gray Wolf ! 'Trochoidal' - What does it mean ?

[Gray-Wolf]

Ooh good word Gray Wolf ! 'Trochoidal' - What does it mean ? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The nat. Hurricane Centre used it the other day to describe her 'wobbly' forward motion. I suppose if you inked up the tip of a kiddies spinning top then the track it would trace out would be 'trochoidal' (as I understand it)

[Polar Bear]

Ooh good word Gray Wolf ! 'Trochoidal' - What does it mean ? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i believe it means something like pivoting around a central axiz (well the geometric term - not sure in weather terms - is that about the same or is it more technical than that GW?

[kold weather]

Its being tugged by the trough still now to its direct north pretty much.This seems to have caused its recent motion to go NNW and now it seems to me that it will bursh the east coast rather then make landfall like GFDL and the NHc wants to do and is as I suspected.Infact there may now and then be tugs and wobbles that take the system due north or even NNe every now and again.

and yes,the eye is definatly going to the east of the forecast point as I reckoned would happen about a hour ago and that will mean not making landfall and gonig throug hthe channel,which is the wrost thing that could have happened for Florida as it means this system probably won't weaken as much as was expected by the NHC f it did make landfall and also gives Wilma more time to get upto cat-5 again and regadrless of what happens the north-east tip will probably still see the eyewall I'd have though unless it doesn't gain no more longitude.

[SnowBear]

Morning Folks

[londonsnow]

Morning Folks 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

mornin'. the eye wilma isnt going to make landfall in my humble opinion

[smich]

Ooh good word Gray Wolf ! 'Trochoidal' - What does it mean ? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's one of the great words.

It means "wobble" - which another great word!

Seriously though, it describes the oscillations as the hurricane travels along. If you look at a long sat loop, the storm centre seems to do little circles around itself

Smich

[Gray-Wolf]

mornin'. the eye wilma isnt going to make landfall in my humble opinion

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

.......make that two humble opinions (can't see her 'jogging' west in the same way as she's 'nudging east')

Edited October 21, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

It's one of the great words.

It means "wobble" - which another great word!

Seriously though, it describes the oscillations as the hurricane travels along. If you look at a long sat loop, the storm centre seems to do little circles around itself

Smich

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My old route home from the Pub was very 'Trochoidal'!!!!!

[SnowBear]

A Yucatan Skimmer!

I agree with Kold, Cat 5 again at some point, question is, will she take a shot at the record pressure again.

[londonsnow]

My old route home from the Pub was very 'Trochoidal'!!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

such a great word trochoidal. well played GW!!

[londonsnow]

ps. here'e the latest

000

WTNT44 KNHC 210842

TCDAT4

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

WILMA IS BEING TRACKED BY THE CANCUN RADAR...NOAA BUOY 42056...AND

BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE

IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER DEFINED WITH A

RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE. THE

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IN THE EYE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE

OF 929 MB AND SO FAR...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB ARE

130 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS

BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE EYEWALL THESE WINDS ARE

OCCURRING AND HAVE NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT YET. SINCE THE

EYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND IS SHRINKING...SOME

INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE

EFFECTS OF LAND AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE WILMA TO

GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

WILMA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS.

BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...TRACK MODELS

MOVE WILMA SLOWLY AND IN ALL DIRECTIONS DURING 24 TO 36 HOUR

PERIOD...MAKING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

NEVERTHERLESS...THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR LITTLE OR ERRATIC MOTION

OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN OR THE ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL THE

WESTERLIES EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST

BEYOND 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE

RECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT. ON THE

OTHER HAND...IT GIVES TIME FOR THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE

EFFECTS OF LAND AND SHEAR. IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL REFLECTS THE

SLOW MOTION AND HAS A WEAKENED WILMA JUST WEST OF HAVANA CUBA

BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IF THE EYE REMAINS OFFSHORE EAST OF

YUCATAN LIKE SUGGESTED BY THE LAST RUN OF THE UK MODEL...WILMA

COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN

THAN USUAL.

FORECASTER AVILA