Wilma

[Mondy]

Just to quickly say to Cassarah that I got it from the GFDL forecst that Mondy posted.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hope Roger J Smith doesn't mind me reposting this, but by all accounts a monster storm may well affect Cassarah's area, along with vast parts of the eastern US/Canada seaboard:

Wilma continues to present many options, but the one that seems most likely is a rapid acceleration through the weekend from the Yucatan across south Florida to the Gulf Stream. A very deep upper low will be forming near New York state Sunday and this seems likely to grab Wilma and make her (it?) part of the mega-storm being advertised on most progs for Monday night and Tuesday. New England will be seeing more flooding rains and some very strong winds, as will Nova Scotia. This giant storm is likely to start heading east across the Atlantic by Wednesday.

taken from here

GFDL model showing the Monster storm occuring

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[crimsone]

Advisory 21A...

...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A

HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM

WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE

BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA

HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF

YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE

PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE

ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160

MILES... 255 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...7 KM/HR. A

MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  90 MILES...150 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH

SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...

PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN

ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...18.6 N... 85.5 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[Mondy]

WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...

PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

[crimsone]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

About the hight of the average puddle in Wales then

seriously though, that made me look twice when I read it as well!

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

Yeah, it mentions higher terrain - that's catastrophic flooding if correct

[Cassarah]

Hope Roger J Smith doesn't mind me reposting this, but by all accounts a monster storm may well affect Cassarah's area, along with vast parts of the eastern US/Canada seaboard:

Wilma continues to present many options, but the one that seems most likely is a rapid acceleration through the weekend from the Yucatan across south Florida to the Gulf Stream. A very deep upper low will be forming near New York state Sunday and this seems likely to grab Wilma and make her (it?) part of the mega-storm being advertised on most progs for Monday night and Tuesday. New England will be seeing more flooding rains and some very strong winds, as will Nova Scotia. This giant storm is likely to start heading east across the Atlantic by Wednesday.

taken from here

GFDL model showing the Monster storm occuring

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Really? I'm in south eastern Ontario. Smack dab in the middle between Ottawa & Montreal (Quebec) How likely is it to come this far inshore? We have gotten good soakings from hurricane remnants, but nothing really big with high winds and everything that I can recall.

[Mondy]

I think i see the first proper signs of a North turn now??(eyes deceiving again?)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Edit: Cassarah, in all honesty, i'm not sure - Roger J Smith is online at the mo - drop him a PMessage - he knows a helluva lot more than i do

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[smich]

Wotcha gang

I've been reduced to lurking today - every time I log in for a look peep, I get dragged away to do some WORK

I'm kind of glad the records have been set before there was too much carnage.

I THINK I see a slowdown in the loops, so a turn Nwards is imminent I think, just skimming the Yucatan. Any landfall weakening will be offset by the end of the EWR, so she should maintain reasonable strength as she arrives in the GOM. Don't forget tho' - the waters are a tad cooler there, so a steady weakening should commence along with a speed up. Cat 3 just north of the keys/southern tip is my vote.

New eye looks too big after the "dreaded pinhole" !

Smich

[crimsone]

I think (but am not certain) from the GOES loop that it's already on the turn. It might just about miss the Yutacan Peninsula.

I also think I've seen the occasional twister in that eye. Could potentially be bad news for Cancun

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[Cassarah]

Edit: Cassarah, in all honesty, i'm not sure - Roger J Smith is online at the mo - drop him a PMessage - he knows a helluva lot more than i do  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

K thanks Mondy!

[Mondy]

While we're pausing, anyone have anymore thoughts on the "development" at 15N 55W? Looked quite good earlier on satellite - not so now! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

(i was 80% sure earlier it would become Alpha )

[smich]

While we're pausing, anyone have anymore thoughts on the "development" at 15N 55W? Looked quite good earlier  on satellite - not so now! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

(i was 80% sure earlier it would become Alpha     )

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It was the most promising of the recent waves, Mond, but since Wilma finally got her act together, I've seen quite a few abruptly peetering out as soon as they hit the outskirts of the caribbean sea. There is still a huge plume of convection stretching out NE towards Bermuda which now seems tied to Wilma, but this same kind of pattern was what frustrated us so much on the "Waiting for Wilma" thread!

Smich

[frogesque]

I'm not well up with these things but does the latest visible loop in Mondy's link show the eye starting to clear now?

[crimsone]

It does indeed, but it's not properly clear - the only way to tell if it's really clear is to go for the closeup

[Gray-Wolf]

Popped out for 4 hrs and she's slowed, turned ,and now looks likely to follow the worse case scenario of limited land contact and a new eye as she leaves the channel on what is then forcast to be a rapid accelleration towards Florida!!!.

Before I went I was about to caution folk about talking about anything after what appeared (at least to me) to be a direct smash into Yukatan and now it looks like I should have had faith in the NHC all along!!!

The next few hours will show us how much of a turn she's on (I think it's more important than her eyewall replacement to her a present) and, if unhindederd by a 'heavy' land contact, how feirce she will once again become once through the channel.

From holding up a piece of paper against the latest Vis. Loop you can clearly see (if you keep the edge of the paper 'in the eye') that the eye (on this tack) will pass through the channel completely unscathed.

[crimsone]

Unless of course it hops west for some bizarre reason (though conspiracy theories abound if it does!!! lol)

Edited October 20, 2005 by crimsone

[crimsone]

Hey guys.

Out of interest, where is the NHC office located? I've only juyst realised that the've swithched the timing of the updates from EST to CDT. Have they evacuated to a safer location or something?

[Mondy]

Definite north turn! Takes a little to load, but obvious from this

edit: slow speed shows it...

Edited October 20, 2005 by Mondy

[Hurricane Debby]

Courtesy of Hurricane Track

UPDATED: 11:10 AM EDT, October 20, 2005

WILMA STILL FORECAST TO HIT FLORIDA- BUT YUCATAN STANDS IN THE WAY FIRST

The forecast for Wilma continues to show a landfall near Naples, FL this weekend. However, before that ever happens, there is a decent chance now that the hurricane will hit the Yucatan Peninsula. If it does so, it will mean significant damage in areas that were impacted by Emily in July. It will also mean that Wilma could be weaker when it begins its move towards Florida. So once again, the Yucatan, or its geographic location, could end up sparing the United States some major grief. However, there is no reason to relax at all. Wilma could miss the Yucatan or intensify more than indicated. The bottom line is that we need to assume that Wilma will be a strong hurricane when it reaches Florida and people need to prepare accordingly. Also- the hurricane wind field is getting larger and it is not expected to move as fast, so the water is going to have more time to pile up in Florida- be aware of that.

[Mondy]

Gonna pin this loop on the other page - as it'll help in the coming hours

[smich]

Definite north turn! Takes a little to load, but obvious from this

edit: slow speed shows it...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, she's definately heading for the Straits now

btw that's great loop Mondy, the low moving towards the great lakes - is that one that Wilma may phase with? It seems to be moving too fast...

Smich

[Mondy]

Ok. Bouy data is improving greatly..

Sustained winds of 53mph, gusts reaching 65mph...wave heights almost 30ft and pressure falling very rapidly: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Multiply by 1.19 to get mph from kts

Smich. Not sure about that low just yet..i think it becomes "stuck" over the eastern seaboard eventually

[Mondy]

918mbs now

[Gray-Wolf]

Definite north turn! Takes a little to load, but obvious from this

edit: slow speed shows it...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just as she 'wobbles' before her shift north you can see her outflow burst north over Florida!!

Not as Trochoidal in her motion today chaps (apart form that 'wobble I've just mentioned of course!!)

[kold weather]

I was getting worried for a while that despite the number of signs that I'd seen it weren't turning,but thankfully my idea of the tilting of convection and the latest analysis of the upper atmopshere was correct,and it stil lseems to me it'll be mighty close to making landfall but it may just miss actually landfalling land by about 20-30 miles.Overall track at the moment seems to be between NW and NNW but also various bits of convection in the eye itslef is causing a few problems track its exact direction.

Also the general look of the hurricane is much better now with a very large eye indeed and preussre,is as I correctly predicted last night at 918mbs(I went for 920mbs at the end of the eyewall replacement.)and this should now slowly strt to go down again,infact depending how quickly it can get its eye clear it has ashot at gonig sub-900mbs again before enviromental condtions become to harsh for it to go that strong.Infact already winds have greatly increased as was expected(winds are always more affected by eyewall replacements then pressure)

KLast recon pass found only one wind max and that was at 35 miles away from its center,which suggests that at least for now its not undergoing another replacement.Pressure down to 918mbs but more impressive flight level winds back upto 145kts whixch is higher then the last recon mission,which in other words means its getting stronger again,so cat-5 may not be to far of again if it contniues to get a better satilite representation like its doing and the eye clears out even more over the next 6hrs.

Edited October 20, 2005 by kold weather