Wilma Watching

[crimsone]

BBC News 24 now also have a selection on Hurricane Wilma in their "news multiscreen".

What are the chances of a new "pinhole eye", looking from the image posted above?

Further, a 5.15 pm EDT update on wilma...

000

WTNT64 KNHC 222111

TCUAT4

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

515 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE

OKEECHOBEE IN ADDITION TO THE WATCHES ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

I think she will reach Cat 3 again, there is more energy available in the Gulf than peeps are giving notice to. Dont count Wilma out yet, I have a feeling she is going to be stronger on FL landfall than some think.

I am sticking to my previous track thoughts, Ten Thousand Islands > Overland FL > West Palm Beach.

[Kain]

I'm just surprised how well she has held up over land, she move have serious balls this lady!

Kain

[Brrr]

What's the story with TD 25 - is this likely to develop into anything?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

What's the story with TD 25 - is this likely to develop into anything?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is that not Alpha? Or is it another one ...

[P.K.]

What's the story with TD 25 - is this likely to develop into anything?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Already upgraded to TS α. See http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.p...pic=21666&st=51

[Brrr]

Already upgraded to TS α. See http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.p...pic=21666&st=51

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks PK - I'm such a fool... I though Alpha was a separate TS (last I looked was 91L I think), and TD25 was a new event... hey ho.

[crimsone]

Thanks PK - I'm such a fool... I though Alpha was a separate TS (last I looked was 91L I think),  and TD25 was a new event...  hey ho.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What's this 91L all about? TS Alpha was invest 99L, and so 91L would have to be a new invest?

[Coopsy]

I think she will reach Cat 3 again, there is more energy available in the Gulf than peeps are giving notice to. Dont count Wilma out yet, I have a feeling she is going to be stronger on FL landfall than some think.

I am sticking to my previous track thoughts, Ten Thousand Islands > Overland FL > West Palm Beach.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think that there are going to be more problems with tornadoes with Wilma than usual hurricanes as a cold front is moving into northern florida and the likelyhood is there could be many more outbreaks of tornadoes....just another thing to add in to the equation for the poor guys down there

The good thing is the steering mechanism will be more powerful by the time Wilma hits the gulf and therefore will wisk it over Florida and out in to Atlantic within 1 day, unlike in Mexico where it has near stalled.

[Kain]

Looks like the eye is starting to clear.

Kain

[SnowBear]

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

Well, Kevin in Cancun has posted some more pics, glad to see they pulled through ok. The pics are summat else though.

[crimsone]

That's a relief! I was starting to think he was a gonner!

[SnowBear]

Me too crimsone, sounds like they didnt get the amount of damage that some have, and if those pics are anything to go by, other places faired very badly. Am amazed though that little shack thing stood up by the pool !

[crimsone]

LOL! yes, me too.

Funny isn't it? there's a cat 4/5 hurricane, massive towering buildings, trees, people...

the thing that suprises is a little hut next to a swimming pool. (maybe a lesson for future building in the area? ie, Build low, think strong.)

[wolves78]

just the latest i could find on wilma and alpha

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...tic&storm=Wilma

Edited October 23, 2005 by wolves78

[crimsone]

eye is 75% over the water on the latest sat images, with the eyewall taking a stronger shape and the eye clearing apparently quite rapidly.

[SnowBear]

she'll reform no doubt, I wouldnt be surprised if back to Cat 3, maybe even 4, she held up surprisingly well over land.

[Kain]

Rather nice picture of Florida's impending doom

http://us.news3.yimg.com/us.i2.yimg.com/p/...vXq65ZDzXaw3Q--

Thanks to yahoo

Kain

[crimsone]

Rather nice picture of Florida's impending doom

http://us.news3.yimg.com/us.i2.yimg.com/p/...vXq65ZDzXaw3Q--

Thanks to yahoo

Kain

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've never seen a cloud look so sinister, showing no sign of the hell that lies beyond.

[crimsone]

Discussion 31...

THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA.  EARLIER REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700

MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT 30-35 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE

PLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER

EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI.  SINCE THE

CENTER LEFT THE COAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF

THE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH

THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY

INCREASING THE WINDS.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE

DATA SHOW THAT THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE

EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.  THIS

TROUGH SHOULD TURN WILMA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24

HR...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION.  WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE

GENERAL TRACK OF WILMA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHERE IN

FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL.  THE 18Z GFS IS WELL TO THE

LEFT...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WHILE THE 12Z

ECMWF IS WELL TO THE RIGHT...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO CROSS THE

FLORIDA KEYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO

THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE

18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  WILMA

SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC...

AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE AFTER 96 HR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  WILMA IS

CURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN

ALMOST 48 HR AGO.  THE LARGE SIZE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL ARGUES

AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE WILL BE CROSSING

THE LOOP CURRENT.  AFTER 24 HR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G4 JET SHOW THAT

DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR IS LURKING JUST WEST OF WILMA AND COULD BE

ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM NEAR THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE

GFDL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...BRINGING THE STORM TO 95

KT NEAR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A

BLEND OF THE GFDL AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING

WILMA TO 100 KT IN 24 HR AND THEN WEAKENING A LITTLE BEFORE

LANDFALL.  WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO

HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A

CATEGORY THREE.  AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY

WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WARNING AND WATCHES HAVE

BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0300Z 21.8N  86.9W    85 KT

12HR VT    23/1200Z 22.5N  86.3W    90 KT

24HR VT    24/0000Z 24.0N  84.6W  100 KT

36HR VT    24/1200Z 26.3N  81.5W    90 KT...INLAND

48HR VT    25/0000Z 30.5N  77.0W    75 KT...OVER WATER

72HR VT    26/0000Z 41.0N  66.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT    27/0000Z 46.0N  55.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT    28/0000Z 46.0N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Mondy]

CANCUN, Mexico, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Mexico's famed Caribbean resorts were knee-deep in water on Sunday after Hurricane Wilma roared past, uprooting trees, smashing homes and killing at least six people, as the storm set a new course for Florida.

Three full days of howling hurricane winds and rain left towns along the coast badly flooded, and thousands of sullen tourists spent their third night on Saturday in dark stuffy refuges with no running water and food running short.

Hundreds of thousands of people suffered serious damage to their homes as the slow-moving storm hung over the Yucatan peninsula, knocking out power lines and tearing off roofs.

The long spit of white sand that draws planeloads of sun seekers to Cancun was under water. Luxury hotels were flooded and littered with debris after the normally tranquil sea off Quintana Roo state roared inland.

"The structural damage is everywhere and the winds are still strong," Quintana Roo Gov. Felix Gonzalez said late on Saturday as the army prepared to send in trucks and planes with food, water, medical kits and building materials.

President Vicente Fox was also due to fly to the area on Sunday.

In Florida, hurricane warnings were in effect for the Florida Keys and along the state's west coast from Longboat Key southward and the east coast from Jupiter Inlet southward. A hurricane warning was also in effect for Havana and western Cuba. Such warnings mean hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.

In Cancun, locals and tourists alike endured another night of hell in cramped refuges with no electricity -- most of them in damp 3-day-old clothes and dreaming of hot food and a warm bed.

"We wanted to do it all -- the lobster cruise, the booze cruise," sighed Dwayne Redmond, a Chicago firefighter who came to Mexico with his wife for the vacation of a lifetime.

Many foreigners said they craved a beer to cheer them up, but alcohol sales have been banned since Wilma hit on Thursday.

Adding to the gloom, rumors circulated that flights from Cancun might not resume for days and tourists may have to be bused out of the Yucatan peninsula, famous for its turquoise coral-filled seas, white sand and Mayan ruins.

As the storm eased on Saturday evening, people ventured out in search of food, and some took advantage of the chaos to loot. Dozens waded out of smashed stores clasping plasma TVs, fridges and bundles of clothes on hangers. Police fired shots into the water to try to scatter them.

Rescue workers in boats plucked families from houses where the muddy water was chest-high.

FLORIDA NEXT IN LINE

Florida was next in line, with Wilma due to hit by Monday, and forecasters expected the storm to pick up speed.

As Wilma's eye drifted northeastward into the Gulf of Mexico early on Sunday, the storm was ranked a Category 2 hurricane on the five-stage Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (160 kph). A Category 2 storm can cause moderate damage.

At 2 p.m. EDT (0600 GMT), the center of the storm was about 370 miles or (600 km) west-southwest of Key West, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Authorities were taking no risks and ordered evacuations, starting with 80,000 residents of the vulnerable Florida Keys.

In Mexico, the coral-fringed island of Cozumel, popular with scuba divers, was expected to be badly flooded after taking the brunt of the storm on Friday. Many locals remained in shelters, with the power out and no boats running.

Gonzalez said two deaths had been reported on the island.

One person also died in Cancun when a gust of wind blew out a window, two died in the resort town of Playa del Carmen, farther south, when a gas tank exploded, and a man was killed in Yucatan state when a tree branch blew off and crushed him.

Mudslides caused by Wilma killed 10 people in Haiti this week and Cuba was hit by drenching rains and tornadoes.

Mexico is used to hurricanes but Wilma is one of the biggest and slowest-moving in years, dumping intense rain. It is also unusually big with a diameter of 500 miles (800 km).

This hurricane season has spawned three of the fiercest storms on record. Experts say the Atlantic has entered a period of heightened storm activity that could last for 20 years. (Additional reporting by Greg Brosnan in Playa del Carmen, Michael Christie in Miami and Laura Myers in Key West)

[kold weather]

Well hurricane Wilma is finally over water now and it looks like winds have bottomed out at 85kts.Recon has found that eye is huge,at 70 miles across and still has lots of mess inside of it.Orgainsiation is better then before and the cloud tops are cooling but it does seem to be undergoing or at least trying a eyewall replacement,wit hthe inner eyewall still looking good on radar though.Pressure has risen slightly over the last few hours but as I thoguht it can take these storms a good few hours just to get the eye re-organised again and the eyewall replacement cycle will put a stop to any rapid increase of strength.

BUT it still has a good structure despite being over land for so many hours and it will have a huge eye so there is plenty of time to contract and these large eyes are by far the most stable and gives the storm a large windfield as well.Currently its strcture isn't good enoug hfor rapid strengthening but it could well get slowly stronger over the next 24hrs.

After that shear is forecast to come in and from the dissucssion the shear isn't to far away from Wilma now,although with wilm's huge eye it may wlel be able to cope wit hthe shear better then most hurricanes would but even then a slight weakening would probably occur before landfall.

Wilma is currently moving north-eastwards after the trough has finally pciked up Wilma as expected and although its slow moving at present steering currents are getting stronger now and will send it more and more NE.The key thing now just 36hrs awayfrom landfall is at what angle does it head towards Florida at.This wil lbe key to landfall site.The NHC are still in the same sort of area before and keep the system gonig at ENE and at least at the moment the models agree,wit hthe Naples areas getting hit hard by the southern eyewall.It looks like it may make landfall a tad south of where I thought but that depends on when it turns to the ENE rather then NE like it is now.

Lamdfalling strength is very hard,it could be anything from a strong cat-1 to a strong cat-3,there is plenty warm seas about the hurricane and the MPI of the area would suggest it could get upto strong cat-3 before landfall.In the end it all depends on when the eyewall replacement cycle finishs and just how strong the shear lays into Wilma over the last 24hrs before landfall.For now I say just south of Ft.Myers and winds of 115mph,so borderline cat-2/3.

[Mondy]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 23/08:05:50Z

B. 21 deg 58 min N

086 deg 36 min W

C. 700 mb 2753 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 232 deg 084 kt

G. 141 deg 035 nm

H. 961 mb

I. 8 C/ 3057 m

J. 14 C/ 3051 m

K. 14 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C65

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 20

MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z

EYEWALL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR. REMNANTS OF AN INNER EYEWALL REMAIN.

[SnowBear]

000

URNT12 KNHC 230943

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 23/09:17:40Z

B. 22 deg 11 min N

  086 deg 31 min W

C. 700 mb 2749 m

D. NA  kt

E. NA  deg    nm

F. 359 deg 081 kt

G. 265 deg 076 nm

H.        960 mb

I.  10 C/ 3051 m

J.  14 C/ 3044 m

K.  14 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C65

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1  nm

P. AF308 2024A WILMA        OB 26

MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z

REMNENT INNER EYE 16 NM DIA. 50% COVERAGE. OPEN W SEMICIRCLE.

[Gray-Wolf]

I take it Mondy & SnowBears's posts show both the eyewall re-forming and pressure (however small) starting to drop?

How low can she go? 920's anyone?