March CET

[Matty M]

Still hopefully we can acheive a CET below 5c a good 1c below average

And tonights low temps

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2417.png

WIll be a welcome relief.. with maxima of 11c and minima of 3c... a mean of 7c which wont see much of a dent into the CET

The lower we can get tonight the better..

If we get to 1c i think we can end up at 4.8c...

28th mean 6c

29th mean 9c

30th mean 9c

31st mean 10c

34/4 = 8.5c

So the March CET should finish at around 4.8/4.9c

Which would be 1.4c below average

Edited March 28, 2006 by Matty M

[Thundersquall]

My estimate for the March CET is as follows:

(4.42 x 27) = 119.34

(6.59 x 4) = 26.36

(119.34 + 26.36) / 31 = 4.7°C.

Thanks to 'Metomania' for assisting me with these calculations ("the 3.16" is the Net-weather March CET at the time). :

You need to times the 3.16 by the number of days = 21. Then times your estimated remaining temperatures by the number of remaining days = 10. Then divide the whole by 31. Going by your figures the average CET would therefore be 3.16 x 21 = 66.36 + 6.28 x 10 = 63: Total = 129 divided by 31 = 4.16 on your figures.

Edited March 28, 2006 by Thundersquall

[drfeelgood]

It's a shame about this month as it really deserved to be as cold as March 1987 CET and possibly cooler than that, AGW strikes again perhaps.

Were it not for this mild final week, this March could easily have been the coldest since 1970. It now looks like it will only be the coldest since 1996...

[ChrisHell]

Were it not for this mild final week, this March could easily have been the coldest since 1970. It now looks like it will only be the coldest since 1996...

I know but at least it might be colder than 2001

[The Enforcer]

Regardless, CET is not as good an indicator of snowfall as might be expected. It's a bit of a paper exercise, in truth.

[HellyHanson]

I am not really that intrested in the CET it's the snowfall that counts. Whats the point of having a CET of say 4C when you have had zero snowfall. I think we should have CESC(Central england snow cover). 1cm looks reasonable to me for march.

[The Enforcer]

I am not really that intrested in the CET it's the snowfall that counts. Whats the point of having a CET of say 4C when you have had zero snowfall. I think we should have CESC(Central england snow cover). 1cm looks reasonable to me for march.

I'd settle for that amount at any period during the winter. No? Bugger.

[Guest Mike W]

I wouldn't condone it Enforcer, but if you want to try an increase your chances of snow, get a load of giant tall chimmney stacks and emmit loads of SO2 out of them only and that might get you a better chance of snow, well certainly more average to below months would ensue, but as I say it might not get a positive reaction, which is somewhat understandeble,

Edited March 28, 2006 by Mike W

[The Enforcer]

I wouldn't condone it Enforcer, but if you want to try an increase your chances of snow, get a load of giant tall chimmney stacks and emmit loads of SO2 out of them only and that might get you a better chance of snow, well certainly more average to below months would ensue, but as I say it might not get a positive reaction, which is somewhat understandeble,

Knowing my luck I'd probably end up being sheltered from the snow by the chimneys or they'd create some sort of heat island.

[reef]

Regardless, CET is not as good an indicator of snowfall as might be expected. It's a bit of a paper exercise, in truth.

Indeed, March 2004 and March 2005 were both more than 1°C above average here, yet they proved to have more significant accumilations of snow than March 2006.

Its a continuation of the trend for the winter really, cold compared to recent years, but quite snowfree.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Todays little feed from the Net-Wx CET and Net-Wx 16 day avg. temps.

This morning, the CET looks at hitting 4.64oC for the whole of March.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 37.6

Westerly Gales - 7.7 37.6

Catchmydrift - 7.6 36.5

Reef - 7.3 33.4

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 31.3

Mike W - 7.0 30.3

PersianPaladin - 7.0 30.3

Bottesford - 6.7 27.3

Magpie - 6.7 27.3

Peter Tattum - 6.7 27.3

Dave J - 6.6 26.2

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 26.2

Fordy - 6.5 25.2

Great Plum - 6.5 25.2

Roger J Smith - 6.5 25.2

Joneseye - 6.4 24.1

Kold Weather - 6.3 23.1

Mark - 6.3 23.1

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 23.1

The Pit - 6.3 23.1

Evo - 6.2 22.1

Noggin - 6.2 22.1

Rikki - 6.1 21.0

SteveB - 6.1 21.0

Anti-Mild - 6.0 20.0

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 19.0

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 17.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 14.8

Thundersquall - 5.5 14.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1 10.7

Shuggee - 4.9 8.6

Snowmaiden - 4.8 7.6

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 7.6

Helly Hanson - 4.6 5.5

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Snooz - 4.3 2.4

Tinybill - 4.0 -0.6

Drfeelgood - 3.8 -2.7

Nick Sussex -2.0 -21.3

[Guest Mike W]

Looks like Shuggee will get it, or Optimus Prime.

Edited March 29, 2006 by Mike W

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, we could get an outturn of 37.6C over the next three days- after all, Peter Tattum did predict that record breaking heat would sweep in with a CET for June of 442C!

37.6

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes- Ian Brown 4.9 should be on the list, and it looks like being within 0.3C of the correct outturn which is pretty good.

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like Shuggee will get it, or Optimus Prime.

I think my prediction is slightly too high. But the general theme is for these people;

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 14.8

Thundersquall - 5.5 14.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1 10.7

Shuggee - 4.9 8.6

Snowmaiden - 4.8 7.6

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 7.6

Helly Hanson - 4.6 5.5

To do remarkably well. Helly Hanson may be slightly too low while Summer Blizzard and Snowmaiden may well take March's CET winner. But everyone listed above did very well.

Remember though, Hadley/Metoffice figure nearly always deviates from the third party predictions. It's usually 0.2c higher then Philip Eden. So when Philips may show 4.7c by the end of the month, it's more likely to come out at 4.9c. In which case Shuggee will win.

[shuggee]

Let's not forget the CET predicted in the seasonal forecast <_<

Yes - copy cat

[kold weather]

By the way, just so you know Feb came out at 3.8c. As for March, 4.8-5c sounds about right so a decently below average March seems on the cards despite a fairly warm last week.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think my prediction is slightly too high. But the general theme is for these people;

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 14.8

Thundersquall - 5.5 14.8

Optimus Prime - 5.1 10.7

Shuggee - 4.9 8.6

Snowmaiden - 4.8 7.6

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 7.6

Helly Hanson - 4.6 5.5

To do remarkably well. Helly Hanson may be slightly too low while Summer Blizzard and Snowmaiden may well take March's CET winner. But everyone listed above did very well.

Remember though, Hadley/Metoffice figure nearly always deviates from the third party predictions. It's usually 0.2c higher then Philip Eden. So when Philips may show 4.7c by the end of the month, it's more likely to come out at 4.9c. In which case Shuggee will win.

Not sure about the last comment- indeed, last year, Philip's predictions were consistently higher than the Hadley ones, although Hadley corrected theirs upwards shortly afterwards.

As far as I'm aware, Hadley's December CET was actually lower than Philip's.

[Guest Mike W]

Hadley haven't listed the February CET yet, nor has Philips Manley reconstruction got it yet, I have 3.9 becasue that is what it finished on using Phillips CET tracker.

Edited March 29, 2006 by Mike W

[Thundersquall]

By my calculations the CET will be 4.86c be the end of March.

[summer blizzard]

I think that a CET of 4.7C is most likely, at most, 4.8C, this because the next few days will give a CET of around 7C.

[Metomania]

By my calculations the CET will be 4.86c be the end of March.

Agreed, rounding up to 4.9C. Might still touch 5C, especially on the Hadley figure.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think that a CET of 4.7C is most likely, at most, 4.8C, this because the next few days will give a CET of around 7C.

So we're all agreed then a decent below average month. More rain to come and already we're now above average after a dry 3 weeks...amazing what a few days weather can do

BFTP

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Agreed, rounding up to 4.9C. Might still touch 5C, especially on the Hadley figure.

Nice to see your still punting for that 5oC

I still think lower than that, but whats 0.3oC between friends

Mind you, my original guess was 5.9oC