March CET

[Matty M]

Maxima of 12 in the last 6 days?? Maybe in Ireland, but I honestly don't know of many places here in the UK that have had these sort of temps. I think many areas have struggled to reach even 8C. Winter is definitely not over.

No sorry in the last 6 days of March

as in from March 25th

Edited March 20, 2006 by Matty M

[johnholmes]

the mean temp here for the first 20 days is 3.5C

lower than December, January or February, at the moment!

John

ps

to equal, equal only mark you, the long term average for March in this area now requires a mean temp of 9.9C for the remainder of the month!

Edited March 20, 2006 by johnholmes

[drfeelgood]

Apparently the last time March was the coldest month of the "winter" was way back in 1916.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Apparently the last time March was the coldest month of the "winter" was way back in 1916.

Not quite- it was actually 1949!

[drfeelgood]

Oh Ok, you're right, I stand corrected

March 1949 was 5.1C

The CET archive is certaily not easy on the eye is it?

[Guest Mike W]

If the Met Office are right then we are going to get stiched out of a below average month yet again!

[Snowly does it]

If the Met Office are right then we are going to get stiched out of a below average month yet again!

how so? There is no way that a mild spell for the last 5-6 days of the monmth can get the CET anywhere near average, unless its midsummer in intensity.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 2.9C, which is 3.5C below average, the GFS12z without taking into account inversions would on average give a daily CET of 9.4C, which is 3C above average and would result in a monthly CET around 5.6C, which is 0.7C below average however when inversions are taken into account, the final CET would be around 4.3C, which is 2.1C below average.

[The PIT]

If the GFS is right March may not end up so impressive after all. Could put a fair dent in the coldness of this month.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 16.2

Westerly Gales - 7.7 16.2

Catchmydrift - 7.6 16.0

Reef - 7.3 15.1

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 14.6

Mike W - 7.0 14.3

PersianPaladin - 7.0 14.3

Bottesford - 6.7 13.4

Magpie - 6.7 13.4

Peter Tattum - 6.7 13.4

Dave J - 6.6 13.1

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 13.1

Fordy - 6.5 12.9

Great Plum - 6.5 12.9

Roger J Smith - 6.5 12.9

Joneseye - 6.4 12.6

Kold Weather - 6.3 12.3

Mark - 6.3 12.3

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 12.3

The Pit - 6.3 12.3

Evo - 6.2 12.0

Noggin - 6.2 12.0

Rikki - 6.1 11.7

SteveB - 6.1 11.7

Anti-Mild - 6.0 11.5

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 11.2

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 10.9

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 10.0

Thundersquall - 5.5 10.0

Optimus Prime - 5.1 8.9

Shuggee - 4.9 8.4

Snowmaiden - 4.8 8.1

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 8.1

Helly Hanson - 4.6 7.5

Snooz - 4.3 6.7

Tinybill - 4.0 5.8

Drfeelgood - 3.8 5.3

Nick Sussex -2.0 0.2

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

the GFS12z without taking into account inversions would on average give a daily CET of 9.4C

Hi SB.

Looking at the Net-Wx 16 day Average Temp tracker, the average for the remainder (11 days) of March would only be 6.39oC. I think 9.4oC is likely to be very high. Are you perhaps looking at the average max temp?

[Weather-history]

Hi SB.

Looking at the Net-Wx 16 day Average Temp tracker, the average for the remainder (11 days) of March would only be 6.39oC. I think 9.4oC is likely to be very high. Are you perhaps looking at the average max temp?

I was wondering that myself. I noticed when SB does these calculations they are always way too high to the point that it is almost a waste of time especially when GFS provides 2m temperature anyway.

[johnholmes]

using the GFS 00Z data for the rest of the month for my area, taking the 06Z and 18Z temps given, and for 12Z for the latter part of its run, it would give me a mean of 4.7C, compared to the present 3.5C, or the long term average for this area of 5.8C

This would then make it the coldest since 1987 at 4.1C. There are 6 colder Marches back to 1942, using Finningley data.

John

[Matty M]

yep as i suspected it looks like a mild end to March..

Were looking at a CET of 4.2c of there abouts.. still very very cold

[Sunshine]

Its close as to whether this March will be colder than 1996 (CET 4.5), but I think it will just beat March 1987's 4.1

There may have not been much snow this winter, but it has felt colder than the last few winters, so at least I have more hope for some snow next winter.

[Thundersquall]

Anyone with a mathematical brain handy?

CET is currently 3.16c ( http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=cet;sess= ).

From the 16-day average temp ( http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=tmp;sess= )

I calculate temperatures during the remaining 11 days of March average out at 6.28c.

The estimated CET is probably thus: (3.16+6.28) / 2 = 4.72c.

However the calculation may prove a little more complicated than simply adding the two values and dividing by two.

Edited March 21, 2006 by Thundersquall

[summer blizzard]

Mr Data, when was the last time 20C was not reached in March?????

Also, i prefer to use the ensembles to base my calculations because the control run may be a outlier, i use the average of the ensembles, and i did say that that figure was without factoring in inversions.

As the CET is 3C according to Phillip Eden, which is 3.4C below average and the GFS6z, without factoring inversions would give an average daily CET of around 8.7C, which is 2.3C above average the monthly CET would be around 5C, which is 1.4C below average however, once inversions are factored in, the average daily CET drops to around 7.2C, which is 0.8C above average and would produce a monthly CET around 4.5C, which is 1.9C below average.

[Metomania]

Anyone with a mathematical brain handy?

CET is currently 3.16c ( http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=cet;sess= ).

From the 16-day average temp ( http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=tmp;sess= )

I calculate temperatures during the remaining 11 days of March average out at 6.28c.

The estimated CET is probably thus: (3.16+6.28) / 2 = 4.72c.

However the calculation may prove a little more complicated than simply adding the two values and dividing by two.

You need to times the 3.16 by the number of days = 21. Then times your estimated remaining temperatures by the number of remaining days = 10. Then divide the whole by 31. Going by your figures the average CET would therefore be 3.16 x 21 = 66.36 + 6.28 x 10 = 63: Total = 129 divided by 31 = 4.16 on your figures.

Guessing the real temperatures from synoptic runs is very hazardous at that range! The most we can honestly anticipate from models beyond T72 are the synoptics. Intricate details like precipitation patterns and temperature values are best left to the short-term.

Even so, it looks quite likely that the CET will be somewhere in the 4-range. It would take some really warm air to bring it over 5C from here, and correspondingly very cold temperatures to hold below 4. Neither of those look likely. So somewhere in the 4's looks probable.

[Thundersquall]

Guessing the real temperatures from synoptic runs is very hazardous at that range! The most we can honestly anticipate from models beyond T72 are the synoptics. Intricate details like precipitation patterns and temperature values are best left to the short-term.

Exactly! I don't think the average temperature will be anywhere near 10.48c on Sunday 26th March, for example!

Edited March 21, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Weather-history]

Mr Data, when was the last time 20C was not reached in March?????

More often than not 20C is not reached during March, I think March 2004 was the last time, 20C was not reached

[Thundersquall]

You need to times the 3.16 by the number of days = 21. Then times your estimated remaining temperatures by the number of remaining days = 10. Then divide the whole by 31. Going by your figures the average CET would therefore be 3.16 x 21 = 66.36 + 6.28 x 10 = 63: Total = 129 divided by 31 = 4.16 on your figures.

Thank you very much - even 4.16c is very low and would compare very favourably with February's 4.08c!

[johnholmes]

You need to times the 3.16 by the number of days = 21. Then times your estimated remaining temperatures by the number of remaining days = 10. Then divide the whole by 31. Going by your figures the average CET would therefore be 3.16 x 21 = 66.36 + 6.28 x 10 = 63: Total = 129 divided by 31 = 4.16 on your figures.

Guessing the real temperatures from synoptic runs is very hazardous at that range! The most we can honestly anticipate from models beyond T72 are the synoptics. Intricate details like precipitation patterns and temperature values are best left to the short-term.

Even so, it looks quite likely that the CET will be somewhere in the 4-range. It would take some really warm air to bring it over 5C from here, and correspondingly very cold temperatures to hold below 4. Neither of those look likely. So somewhere in the 4's looks probable.

welcome to Net Wx Metomania'

with a name like that and Exeter, maybe you are one of the ex Bracknell mob!?

John

[Roger J Smith]

My current revised CET estimate is 5.7 C.

[Optimus Prime]

If the current GFS is anything to go by 4.1c would be far too low.

My calculation would be nearer to 5.2 and would..ahem...make my 5.1c estimate looks exceedingly good.

[Metomania]

If the current GFS is anything to go by 4.1c would be far too low.

My calculation would be nearer to 5.2 and would..ahem...make my 5.1c estimate looks exceedingly good.

Yes you are right. If the 12z GFS output is right that is. I may have been conservative in suggesting over 5 is very unlikely. There are some warm plumes showing up for the end of this week, which if they transpired could really send the CET upwards quickly.

It will still overall be a below average month though almost certainly.

[Edit. Thank you for the welcome John. I'm a big fan, but I'll leave it at that! wink thingy]

Edited March 21, 2006 by Metomania