March CET

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It would be more logical to use the longest possible period of averages, say 1750-2000, in which case the anomaly for each month would be directly comparable with every other month and any short term warming or cooling trends would be smoothed out.

Shorter period averages could be used out of interest, to see how a month, seaon or year compared with the most recent 30 years or so.

The continual updating of the period of averages serves only to obscure the long term mean.

I'm talking here of the CET series. Obviously for the majority of individual sites such a long term mean would be out of the question and it was for this reason that the 30 year mean was introduced in the first place. 30 years is long enough to smooth out the occasional extreme month or year and short enough so as not to exclude most sites due to inadequate length of record.

T.M

And winter 05/06 was.....exactly average since 1900. B)

BFTP

[A Gower Guy]

Well some decent heatwave will be required for my CET estimate to become true.

The monthly mean temperature from my thermometer is currently at 4.66°c.

[Matty M]

well with 9 days to go the March CET is at 3.0c (-3.1c below the average)

Today should see the first rise of the CET but only marginally..

I expect eh CET to en up at around 4.5c maybe higher but still a comfortable 1c below average

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 20.9

Westerly Gales - 7.7 20.9

Catchmydrift - 7.6 20.5

Reef - 7.3 19.4

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 18.6

Mike W - 7.0 18.2

PersianPaladin - 7.0 18.2

Bottesford - 6.7 17.1

Magpie - 6.7 17.1

Peter Tattum - 6.7 17.1

Dave J - 6.6 16.7

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 16.7

Fordy - 6.5 16.3

Great Plum - 6.5 16.3

Roger J Smith - 6.5 16.3

Joneseye - 6.4 15.9

Kold Weather - 6.3 15.9

Mark - 6.3 15.9

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 15.9

The Pit - 6.3 15.9

Evo - 6.2 15.1

Noggin - 6.2 15.1

Rikki - 6.1 14.7

SteveB - 6.1 14.7

Anti-Mild - 6.0 14.3

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 14.0

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 13.6

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 12.4

Thundersquall - 5.5 12.4

Optimus Prime - 5.1 10.9

Shuggee - 4.9 10.1

Snowmaiden - 4.8 9.7

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 9.7

Helly Hanson - 4.6 8.9

Snooz - 4.3 7.8

Tinybill - 4.0 6.6

Drfeelgood - 3.8 5.8

Nick Sussex -2.0 -1.2

[Guest Mike W]

1 week to go until we get the final CET, ATM it looks like it 5.5 down to 4.0 are the likely ones, but that could easily change, especially witht he AH and BH getting trigger happy down their.

[WBSH]

From what I have seen from the charts and SRF temps look set to rise over the next few days... which will be a welcome return in my opinion! Indeed this March certainly has been a cold one. My very amature recordings reads daytime Max as been around 6.3c where I live which is lower than some of the winter months in 2005!

I agree that the CET should be based on 71-2000 rather than 61-90. Although like someone has suggested earlier why don't we just count the last few centuries!

WBSH

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Well the last 8 days now have a CET of 7.34oC, meaning a CET of between 4.0-4.3oC most likely.

However, the control run looks like being one of the milder runs, so perhaps more around the 4.0oC, and perhaps below.

[Optimus Prime]

Today has seen the CET rise fairly rapidly;

Climate-uk.com has the CET at 3.3c now. That's a rise of 0.3c in one day! It's still 3.0c below average though

Metcheck still have it at 3.0c...3.3c below average

net-weather temperature tracker has it at 3.31c which is 2.99c below average

Mine is at 4.0c which is 2.3c below average

By the looks of it Philips one will easily reach 4.0c by the 28th and probbaly continue to rise. Probably close to 4.5c by the end of the month

Metcheck finishing of around 4.3c

Net-weather around 4.6c

Mine will probably reach 5.4c which is fairly cool for southern england

[Thundersquall]

Despite the onset of milder weather, that CET's barely nudged. Net-weather currently has the temperature tracker

as +3.32c, 2.98c below mean temperature.

[Thundery wintry showers]

My suggestion of 4.8C as a probable outcome was based on the assumption that the CET would nudge up to 3.5C by today. It has not done so (outcome 3.3) so an outcome of 4.6 is probably the upper bound of what we can expect as a mean for the month.

That would make it about as cold as March 1996, though in Scotland it will probably be the coldest since at least 1987.

[Guest Mike W]

There is nothing stopping the CET from hitting the 5+ mark or even the 6+ sadly. Suh is the state the climate is in, it finds it ahrder to jum the temps down but easier to jump the temps up, just looka t it, temps have jumped up in the space of a single day, from 8 to 13 and sitting, all of a suddeen AH and BH have got trigger happy and are ready to start the big stich up again and give us the rest of the year with above average CET after another although maybe not this month, but it looks like the AH is giving us a preview of loads of above average months to come, just when we thought a cool off was around the corner. Oh well..

Edited March 24, 2006 by Mike W

[Scribbler]

My Taunton CET equivalent for March is 4.55 so far.

Using forecast models to run to the end of the month, my CET equivalent should end up at about 5.75.

Shows that its worthwhile living in the Westcountry!

[Optimus Prime]

There is nothing stopping the CET from hitting the 5+ mark or even the 6+ sadly. Suh is the state the climate is in, it finds it ahrder to jum the temps down but easier to jump the temps up, just looka t it, temps have jumped up in the space of a single day, from 8 to 13 and sitting, all of a suddeen AH and BH have got trigger happy and are ready to start the big stich up again and give us the rest of the year with above average CET after another although maybe not this month, but it looks like the AH is giving us a preview of loads of above average months to come, just when we thought a cool off was around the corner. Oh well..

There have been hundreds of months in the CET series where it's starting remarkably cold then the warmer end has been sufficient enough to rise it above average. Obviously March 2005 being a good example. But the best example I can remember would be June 1975. It started off incredibly cold where there was widespread outbreaks of light snowfall over high ground in parts of England and sleet at lower levels. There were also widespread maximum temperatures of 2c across lowland Britain and minima down to -6c. It then warmed up from the 7th with some warmer temperatures (although hardly hot) until the 27th when it turned cold again with more frosts and extremely low temperatures which lasted until the end of month.

Despite the spells of unusual cold the warmer period was to such an extent the CET ended up as 14.7c (0.6c above average)

It's certain the CET will not reach 6.0c, it would need record breaking heat for it to achieve that. It will however reach the high 4.0's for a time but there are indications of it turning much colder again next week with the retirn of light frosts so it could well drop away slightly towards the end of the month.

[Thundery wintry showers]

If the mild temperatures of this weekend were to last for the remainder of the month I could easily see the CET rising into the 5.0-5.5C range. However, the models are unanimously agreed that temperatures will return to near normal levels by Monday 28th March, with three days of temperatures no more than a little above average to follow.

[Guest Mike W]

So are we looking at 4.5 to 5.5 in basic terms.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'd say nearer the 4.5.

[Guest Mike W]

I'm not conting this as a new prediction, but I would have thought out of the range I mentioned, 5.0 would be safer than 4.5.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 22.8

Westerly Gales - 7.7 22.8

Catchmydrift - 7.6 22.3

Reef - 7.3 21.0

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 20.1

Mike W - 7.0 19.7

PersianPaladin - 7.0 19.7

Bottesford - 6.7 18.4

Magpie - 6.7 18.4

Peter Tattum - 6.7 18.4

Dave J - 6.6 17.9

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 17.9

Fordy - 6.5 17.5

Great Plum - 6.5 17.5

Roger J Smith - 6.5 17.5

Joneseye - 6.4 17.0

Kold Weather - 6.3 16.6

Mark - 6.3 16.6

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 16.6

The Pit - 6.3 16.6

Evo - 6.2 16.1

Noggin - 6.2 16.1

Rikki - 6.1 15.7

SteveB - 6.1 15.7

Anti-Mild - 6.0 15.3

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 14.8

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 14.4

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 13.0

Thundersquall - 5.5 13.0

Optimus Prime - 5.1 11.3

Shuggee - 4.9 10.4

Snowmaiden - 4.8 9.9

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 9.9

Helly Hanson - 4.6 9.1

Snooz - 4.3 7.7

Tinybill - 4.0 6.4

Drfeelgood - 3.8 5.5

Nick Sussex -2.0 -2.5

[Thundery wintry showers]

You watch that record breaking heat spread from the south, with average maxima of 22C (peaking at 28C in London) and average minima of 14C, reaching the 17.9C threshold.

[Scribbler]

You watch that record breaking heat spread from the south, with average maxima of 22C (peaking at 28C in London) and average minima of 14C, reaching the 17.9C threshold.

Which month will that happen?

May?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The remainder of this March. It has to, otherwise my prediction at the beginning of the month is looking decidedly like a mild ramp.

Can't see it myself on the charts though!

[drfeelgood]

Looks like my prediction is way too low now.... damn I hate these mild spells..after all the hard work the cold weather has put it this month, all it takes is five days of mild to kill of any chance of beating 1987

[Weather-history]

Suh is the state the climate is in, it finds it ahrder to jum the temps down but easier to jump the temps up, just looka t it, temps have jumped up in the space of a single day, from 8 to 13

Thats because of a warmer airmass starting to flood the UK. At the start of the Feb 1956, the opposite happened and temperatures fell from about 7C to -2C when very continental air started to flood the UK.

Really making a mountain out of a molehill with this Mike.

[Metomania]

There is nothing stopping the CET from hitting the 5+ mark or even the 6+ sadly.

I can't see it hitting 6C even with a week of milder airmass. It is rising fast but something around about 4.8C looks likeliest. It might sneak into the 5's. It was a very cold start to March, but by the end it will probably be the coldest March since 1996, although it is just about possible it might reach the 5.2C figure of 2001.

Some eyes will be set next on whether the 10C CET will be reached this year. Since 1996 there has been a peculiar pattern of 4 years really warm (over 10C) followed by 1 year slightly less mild (sub 10C). This year could fit that again after 4 very warm years. It is too early to say though of course! What cannot be gainsaid is that the trend to a warmer climate is continuing unabated.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Using Mr D's calculations, and the Net-Wx 16 day average temps (now 7.96oC for the last 7 days of March), the CET is likely to come out at around 4.5oC.

Mike W - I think you are perhaps just looking at the max day time temps, and not taking into account the night time min temps.