March CET

[Anti-Mild]

According to P.Eden the CET up to the 18th stands at 2.9c (3.0c below 71-00 average). For this to be the coldest March since 1970, the mean for the next 13 days has to be 5.5c or lower. The latest GFS runs project the next 13 days having a mean of @5.8c which would give a final mean of 4.1c which would be the same as 1987.

Regardless what happens this March will surely go down as one of the coldest in recent memory, and considering the long run of above average to average months we have had it is all the more impressive!

Supposing the final CET is around 4.1c (2.2c below average), the last month to be so far under the 71-00 average was May 1996 (9.1c compared with the average of 11.3c), almost 10 years ago!

[Methuselah]

Here's my revised guess: Tinybill, Snooze, Drfeelgood have the best chance of being right... :o

[Optimus Prime]

I think it's likely to get as high as 4.6 simply because there doesn't look to be any very cold nights to knock of the warmer days. Even though daytime temperatures look to stay slightly below average.

Be intertesting to see the Scotland temperature by the end of the month. They could get the coldest March up there for a long time. It won't beat 1947 up there though, March 1947 was the coldest March of the 20th Century in Scotland with an average of 0.2c.

[Sunshine]

Average here for March 2006 so far is only 2.8C (The average at this point in March 1996 was 3.8C, and the month ended up at 4.1C in the end), so an average temp below 4C is looking almost certain.

[Guest Mike W]

Not certain to get below 4 at all, not these days, temps these days have nasty habit of shooting right up, alot more often, not as much stuff to block it.

[Weather-history]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed in bold to get to predicted values

Button 04 - 7.7 15.3

Westerly Gales - 7.7 15.3

Catchmydrift - 7.6 15.0

Reef - 7.3 14.3

Stephen Prudence - 7.1 13.8

Mike W - 7.0 13.5

PersianPaladin - 7.0 13.5

Bottesford - 6.7 12.7

Magpie - 6.7 12.0

Peter Tattum - 6.7 12.7

Dave J - 6.6 12.5

ThunderyWintryShowers - 6.6 12.5

Fordy - 6.5 12.2

Great Plum - 6.5 12.2

Roger J Smith - 6.5 12.2

Joneseye - 6.4 12.0

Kold Weather - 6.3 11.7

Mark - 6.3 11.7

Snow-Man2006 - 6.3 11.7

The Pit - 6.3 11.7

Evo - 6.2 11.5

Noggin - 6.2 11.5

Rikki - 6.1 11.2

SteveB - 6.1 11.2

Anti-Mild - 6.0 10.9

SnowmanReturns - 5.9 10.7

Stratos Ferric - 5.8 10.4

Paul Carfoot - 5.5 9.6

Thundersquall - 5.5 9.6

Optimus Prime - 5.1 8.6

Shuggee - 4.9 8.1

Snowmaiden - 4.8 7.8

Summer Blizzard - 4.8 7.8

Helly Hanson - 4.6 7.3

Snooz - 4.3 6.5

Tinybill - 4.0 5.7

Drfeelgood - 3.8 5.3

Nick Sussex -2.0 0.6

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Thanks again Mr D.

Looking at the Net-Wx Average 16 day temperatures this morning, the average CET from today, until the end of March is 3.205oC.

[kold weather]

Very cold 0z today, a CEt below 4c would be very likely if the 0z models came off wuth the LP being placed further and further south so that once it passes to our east we actually re-pick up a northerly and the back-edge of the front gives snow to everywhere.

The key to the CET will come down to this little Lp:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

But if the 0z came off, a CET below 4c is a dead cert, with higher daytime maxes this week being balanced by colder mins.

I just wonder how cold this month will end up, gotta be a chance it'll end up even below 3c, though that is only a small chance depending on night-time mins going way below 0c.

[Optimus Prime]

I did some calculating with the current charts from MAX/MIN, doesn't seem right to me, I came out with a CET of 3.2c by the end of the month which is 2.5c below the 1961-1990 average and 3.1c below the 1971-2000 average. That seems a little low to me.

That would make it the second coldest since 1892.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not quite- 1962 and 1969 were both below 3C, though it would still be the third or fourth coldest of the past 100 years.

Even 4.6C might be too high a punt looking at the latest models, although I have a feeling that it will get above 4C.

[HellyHanson]

I never thought at the start of the month that my guess of 4.6C was going to be too high

[Weather-history]

Not quite- 1962 and 1969 were both below 3C, though it would still be the third or fourth coldest of the past 100 years.

March 1969 had a CET of 3.3

[Thundery wintry showers]

Oops- it was my memory that was deficient this time- well spotted!

[Optimus Prime]

Even 4.6C might be too high a punt looking at the latest models, although I have a feeling that it will get above 4C.

Looking at he latest charts, even 4.0c might be too high. I've heard several times on the bbc weather forecast lately where the forecaster has been saying how unusually cold it's been this year for March (Philip Avery said it yesterday)

I reckon anything above 3.8c is odds against at the moment. It all depends whether that cold across North Scotland can spill its way southwards, if it stays mild over England and Wales I would say the mid to high 4.0c. It's almost certain to be at least 1c below the 1971-2000 average.

If it does end up at 4.0c it would be fairly hard for this years CET to be equal or warmer then the last 8 years. We would already be the coldest first 3 months of the year since 1996. For this to be the coldest start to the year since 1987 March would need to have a CET of 2.6c or less. While unlikely it isn't very unlikely.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I did some calculating with the current charts from MAX/MIN, doesn't seem right to me, I came out with a CET of 3.2c by the end of the month which is 2.5c below the 1961-1990 average and 3.1c below the 1971-2000 average. That seems a little low to me.

That would make it the second coldest since 1892.

Mr Data hasn't added it on for some reason...but that is mine

BFTP

[Thundersquall]

I think it's time I re-evaluated my March CET figure.

Currently, I think the CET will be more like +3.15c. This is revised downwards from +5.5c.

Edited March 20, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Well for the purpose of making this thread as fair as possible, we will keep to the original guesses. Of course, dont let that stop you adding your new thoughts, as its not a competition

[drfeelgood]

Looking at the various forecasts, it also looks like the expected mild spell has been cancelled, or at least, it's not going to be that "mild"anymore. Next weekend for example was supposed to see maxes well over 10C...that has now been downgraded by many forecasters and in fact Metcheck has done a u-turn and is now forecasting a chilly weekend to end this remarkable month!

[Thundersquall]

Looking at the various forecasts, it also looks like the expected mild spell has been cancelled, or at least, it's not going to be that "mild"anymore. Next weekend for example was supposed to see maxes well over 10C...that has now been downgraded by many forecasters and in fact Metcheck has done a u-turn and is now forecasting a chilly weekend to end this remarkable month!

Downgraded? I'll say!

Max/Min Temps around freezing away from the far south this wekend!

[drfeelgood]

This is getting very exciting! If the weekend turns out to be that cold this March could end up being the coldest since 1883!!! (1.9C).

Here are the Marches to beat:

1962 =2.8c

1892= 2.7c

1883 = 1.9c

[Matty M]

I think the CET will finish at 4.1c

With a mildish end to the month the CET should be pushed up..

[kold weather]

The thing is matty there relaly isn't any mild weather in sight for the end of the month now, I'll be suprised if we finish above 4c now with anything between 3-4c looking odds on right now.

ertainly looking likely this March will be in the top ten coldest March's for 100 years, if not in the top 5!!!

and in the even larger teapot, i think this will go a long way to disprove those who think we can't get very below average CEt's anymore.

[Matty M]

well maxima of 11/12c and minima of 6/7c for the last 6 days would bring the CET above 4c

and that is by no means more unlikely that it is to be cold

Im going for 4.1/4.2c for the CET

[drfeelgood]

Maxima of 12 in the last 6 days?? Maybe in Ireland, but I honestly don't know of many places here in the UK that have had these sort of temps. I think many areas have struggled to reach even 8C. Winter is definitely not over.

[Bottesford]

ertainly looking likely this March will be in the top ten coldest March's for 100 years, if not in the top 5!!!

and in the modern winter, i think this will go a long way to disprove those who think we can't get very below average CEt's anymore.

True indeed BUT it does not mean global warming is all of a sudden non-existant as one letter in the god-awful Metro newspaper said. The paper had run a story on GW and a few days later someone wrote in claiming there was no GW- I mean how could there be as it's such a cold March. You have to laugh.